Adolis Garcia (OF-TEX) had a huge day against the Athletics, going 5-5 with 2 doubles, 3 homers, 5 runs scored, and 8 RBI. The 30 year-old owned just a .208 average going into the contest, but now has a .260 average to go with 7 homers, 28 RBI, 18 runs scored, and a stolen bases through 85 PA on the year. His strikeout rate is a career-low 21% and he's continued to record hard contact at a high rate (48% per Statcast). Garcia did trade some liners (down to 14% from 19% last season) for flyballs (up to 45% from 40% last year), but his low average was most likely a result of poor luck in a .212 BABIP (now up to .241, but still well below his .299 career clip) given his reduced strikeout rate and continued ability to mash the ball. Further correction should be coming, although, of course, Saturday's performance was exceptional.
James Outman (OF-LAD) went 4-5 with a pair of dingers and 4 RBI against the Cubs on Saturday. The 25 year-old rookie has enjoyed a strong start to the 2023 campaign as he now owns a .314 average to go with 7 homers, 19 RBI, 14 runs scored, and a pair of stolen bases through 81 PA. The strikeout rate is on the high side at 30% - and he did fan a lot in his minor-league career - but he's also drawn a fair amount of walks (12%) and made lots of hard contact (44% per Statcast). He doesn't chase often (24% o-swing%), so contact on pitches inside has been an issue (80% z-contact%). Given the strikeout issues in particular, a high average is likely unsustainable, but there's real pop in his bat and he has the ability to draw walks. Outman therefore seems like a likely candidate to hit 20+ bombs and steal about 10 bags.
Alek Manoah (SP-TOR) rebounded from a poor start to the season against the Yankees on Saturday afternoon, firing 7 shutout IP in which he scattered 2 hits and a walk while fanning 5. The 25 year-old righty threw 57 of his 85 offerings for strikes in the outing. Manoah now owns a 5.13 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 5.5 BB/9 on the season, with a 5.75 xFIP indicating that he's played pretty poorly and is not a mere victim of bad luck. Control was a major issue entering Saturday's contest, so it was encouraging to see him issue only one free pass in the outing, but the strikeouts remained underwhelming as his swinging-strike rate remains low at 10% (12% career). And while opposing hitters have logged a 78% contact rate so far this year that is right about where it was last season (77%), they've tended to tattoo the ball (44% hard-hit rate per Statcast). So, overall Saturday's outing hinted that he might be turning things around, there are some very real red flags as he prepares to face Seattle at home next week.
Shane Bieber (SP-CLE) took the L against the Marlins on Saturday as he gave up 3 runs on 4 hits and 4 walks while striking out 4 over 5.2 IP. The 27 year-old righty threw 65 of his 103 offerings for strikes and served up a dinger in the contest. While Bieber's ERA is a solid 3.23 through his first 5 starts (30.2 IP) of the season, his 4.26 xFIP, 6.5 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 are all concerning. Sure, the walk rate isn't bad, but it's well above his 1.8 from a season ago. But the lack of punchouts is a problem for fantasy, and it's alarming to see his swinging-strike rate down from 14% last season (and 14% career) to under 11% this season. And speaking of alarming, Bieber's average fastball velocity is down a little more this season to a shade under 91 mph after sitting at just over 91 last year (it used to be 93). His fastball, though, is now his third most-used pitch (27%) behind his slider (28%) and cutter (30%). Always one to give up a good bit of hard contact (42% career hard-hit rate per Statcast), that is also up this season (46%). The season is young, but Bieber just doesn't seem right as he prepares to take on the Red Sox in Boston next week.
Reid Detmers (SP-LAA) should be a good DFS and standard fantasy play on Saturday as the 23 year-old southpaw will face the Royals at home. Detmers has been solid through 3 starts this year, recording a 10.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 4.50 ERA, and 4.22 xFIP across 16 IP. This comes after he was fairly productive as a rookie last season (8.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.77 ERA, 4.20 xFIP over 129 IP) and he's largely done more of the same so far in 2023, as he's kept hard contact to a modest 37% clip while keeping opposing hitters at a slightly below-average contact rate (78%). While Detmers might not be exciting, this play hinges on his opposition, the lowly Royals, who rank dead last in the majors in team OPS (.581). Detmers is currently on the waiver wire in about 40% of ESPN leagues.
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