Nestor Cortes- P- NYY- Cold- Over his last 3 starts against them, the Rays have been Cortes' kryptonite. Across a total of 14 IP he allowed 15 runs on 20 hits and 7 hits while striking out 10. Cortes gave up 3 homers to Tampa Bay yesterday, giving him 6 in those last three starts against them. He brought some extreme home/road splits into yesterday's game, with a 1.81 ERA at home and 6.04 on the road. The Rays tattooed him in Yankee Stadium yesterday, countering that trend. The good news is that the Yankees will not face the Rays again this season. Taking the 3 poor Rays' games out of his record, Cortes has a 3.24 ERA overall but still 5.49 on the road. In every season since the COVID season of 2020 Cortes has had a lower ERA at home. In 2022 and 2023 he had a lower ERA in the second half. At this point, it looks like he is good to go for home starts. Road appearances are iffy.
Spencer Horwitz- 1B- TOR- Rookie- Horwitz went 0-for-3 to end his 5-game hitting streak. However, he did walk and score a run. Horwitz is slashing .312/.415/.468 with 4 homers in 130 PAs this season. His 89.1 EV and 34.8% HardHIt% are in line with his results. That is also evidenced by his xBA of .304 and xSLG of .490 before yesterday's game. Horwitz has a 26.7% chase rate and 6.4% SwStr%, which has shown itself in his 12.3% BB% and 13.8% K%. Horwitz is showing that he may not have much power and speed but can help in the AVG and OBP columns.
Xavier Edwards- 2B- MIA- Stats- Since being installed as the Marlins' SS earlier this month Edwards has gone 18-for-52 with 3 steals in 14 games. Only 3 of his hits in this span are for extra bases and they are all doubles. Edwards has enjoyed a .408 BABIP and that has boosted his average significantly. His xBA before yesterday was .257, well be low his .345 AVG. Regression will not be kind to Edwards.
Pablo Lopez- P- MIN- Hot- Lopez allowed 1 run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 7 in 7 IP yesterday. He has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lopez has lowered his ERA from 5.63 to 4.86, increased his K/9 from 9.79 to 10.38 and lowered his BB/9 from 2.03 to 1.95. Lopez has become more consistent lately, allow he was still tagged for 6 runs in 5 IP on July 5, the only blemish in his recent stretch of starts. He is on track to get his ERA below 4.00 by the end of the season. Lopez's FIP is 3.70 and xFIP is 3.17 so regression has been his friend.
Dylan Cease- P- SD- Hot- Cease has had an up and down season. He started off by throwing quality starts in 4 of his last 5 outings. Then inconsistency hit. By June 21 his ERA had risen from 1.82 to 4.14. Since then, Cease has thrown 4 quality starts in his last 5 outings. Yesterday he threw 7 shutout IPs, allowing just 1 hit and 1 walk while striking out 10. Cease has racked up 43 Ks in his last 30.2 IPs. His ERA is now 3.76, which is underperforming his 3.12 FIP and 3.16 xFIP. The overall K/9 rate and dropping ERA are putting Cease in the elite level he was expected to reach.
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