Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, Orioles
Jackson Holliday returned to the big leagues with a bang on Wednesday, going 1 for 5 with a grand slam, the first home run of his career. It was an encouraging sign, considering his first stint in the majors lasted just ten games, where he batted .059 with 18 strikeouts in 34 at-bats. However, he returned to AAA and showed why he is the highest-ranked prospect in all of baseball, as he slashed .271/.431/.477 with 75 walks and 77 strikeouts. He is still only 20 years old and hasn't fully grown into his body to maximize his raw power, so he only has 10 home runs on the season. That's why it was especially exciting to see his 439-foot grand slam, suggesting it's not too late for him to become a fantasy standout in 2024.
Matt Olson, 1B, Braves
Matt Olson went 2 for 4 with two solo home runs and a walk on Wednesday. He now has four home runs in his past five games, and hopefully, this is the start of a strong second half for one of the biggest early-round busts of the season. Although he has still hit the ball hard (91.9 mph average exit velocity), his strikeout rate has risen 5% since last season and his walk rate has decreased by 6%. His 47.6% hard-hit rate is good, ranking in the 85th percentile, but it's still a sharp decline from his 99th percentile 55.5% rate from 2023. Overall, these trends have sent his xwOBA plummeting down to just .321, which makes him a nearly league-average hitter in that regard. It's been too bad of a season to consider Olson a top-5 first baseman anymore, but if he can keep up this hot streak it might not be too late for him to sneak back into that discussion.
Mark Vientos, 3B, Mets
Mark Vientos went 1 for 3 with a two-run home run on Wednesday. He's now slashing .286/.341/.563 on the season with 16 home runs in 63 games played. This doesn't look like some fluke either, as his .505 xSLG ranks in the 91st percentile and his 16.9% barrel rate ranks in the 97th percentile. He hit the ball fairly hard last season too, but his 30.5% strikeout rate and 36% chase rate made it difficult to capitalize on the hard contact. This season, however, he has brought his strikeout rate down to 26%, his chase rate to 31%, and is even walking almost 4% more of the time. Of course, these still aren't great metrics, but they have improved enough for him to be able to do some serious damage when he does put the ball in play. This type of production from him has gone on longer than a typical hot streak, which makes me believe he is taking a legitimate step forward and has pushed himself into the top 20 third baseman for fantasy.
Isaac Paredes, 1B/3B, Cubs
Isaac Paredes went 2 for 4 with two doubles and three runs on Wednesday. It's good to see him producing with his new team because there are definitely concerns about his long-term fantasy value now that he is on the Cubs. He has always hit the ball exceptionally soft, as can be seen by his 84.8 mph average exit velocity (2nd percentile) and 25.6% hard-hit rate (5th percentile). Even his .242 batting average is overshadowed by his .216 xBA. However, he has always been able to overcome his poor quality of contact metrics by pulling the ball in the air more than almost everyone else in the league. He is in the top three in both pull rate and fly ball rate among qualified hitters and has developed an odd skill for turning soft-hit fly balls into home runs. The problem is that Wrigley Field measures 355 feet down the left field line, compared to only 315 feet in Tampa. If Paredes had played every game in Chicago this season, his home run total would drop from 16 down to 11. There's always the chance that he finds a way to fine-tune his swing to keep things rolling with his new team, but I wouldn't be surprised if he takes a step back in the second half.
Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles
Colton Cowser went 2 for 5 with a single and home run on Wednesday. Cowser has had a hot and cold season, but right now he is very hot. In 13 games since the break, he is batting .380 with 12 runs, 4 home runs, and 13 RBI. There is reason to believe that this could be more than just a brief hot streak, as his underlying metrics show that he has been unlucky on the season as a whole so far. He has a .491 xSLG (87th percentile), despite an actual SLG of .458. He also has a barrel rate of 14.6% (92nd percentile) and a 48.1% hard-hit rate (86th percentile). These numbers are much better than you'd expect from a player who has been a fringe fantasy outfielder at best, but he might finally be putting it all together. He is a great addition if you need a hot hand that could potentially turn into more.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
