Kris Bubic-Royals-SP
Kris Bubic went 5 IP and gave up 4 ER on 5 H, 3 BB, and 4 K's against the Astros. Bubic has a 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 3.29 SIERA through 36 IP. He is building off a breakout 2024 season (2.67 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 30.1 IP). The difference is that he has transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation. Bubic has shown the ability to miss bats (26% Ka nd 15% SwStr) with good control (7% BB). He also has the best stuff numbers of his career. From a stuff perspective, he has a plus fastball and changeup, with his slider being slightly below-average. Bubic turns the slider into a plus pitch by being able to command it well. This gives him three above-average pitches to work with, which is why he has succeeded. The biggest question for Bubic is going to be his innings limit because he is coming off 71.2 IP in 2024. This isn't worth worrying about right now. His next start will come on the road against the Orioles.
Nick Lodolo-Reds-SP
Nick Lodolo went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 2 H, 1 BB, and 9 K's against the Rockies. Lodolo has a 2.25 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 12% K:BB. The ERA and WHIP look great, but the underlying skills are alarming. His 4.18 SIERA is the first signal that something is off. The main culprit is his lack of strikeouts (15% K). His swinging strike rate (9%) says that it is a legitimate problem, which is concerning considering he has struck out 26% of batters for his career (282.2 IP). Lodoo is getting by with elite control (3% BB) and batted ball luck (.225 BABIP). The main concern going forward is that he is going to be hit by regression, and his home park will not help lessen the blow. He has a career 4.97 ERA at home with 1.52 HR/9.
Max Meyer-Marlins-SP
Max Meyer went 4 IP and gave up 5 ER on 5 H, 4 BB, and 6 K's against the Mariners. Meyer had been dominant through five starts. He now has a 3.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 28% K:BB. He is missing bats at an elite rate (34% K), which is supported by a 15% swinging strike rate. Meyer has held his increased velocity on all of his pitches. He has also changed his pitch mix by throwing fewer four-seam fastballs in favor of a sinker (13% usage) and more sliders (+10%). This change has done wonders for Meyer and is the reason for his breakout so far. The future looks bright considering his skills and a favorable home park. He is going to be on some kind of innings limit this year because he threw only 115 IP last year after coming off surgery. This is something to be aware of, but it isn't a factor right now. He is an automatic start until the Marlins decide to shut him down, which won't be until the end of the year.
Brandon Pfaadt-Diamondbacks-SP
Brandon Pfaadt went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 9 H, 1 BB, and 6 K's against the Braves. Through 6 GS, Pfaadt has a 2.78 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He made nice strides a year ago despite his surface stats (4.71 ERA and 1.24 WHIP). He showed good strikeout-to-walk skills (24% K and 6% BB). However, this year he is producing on the surface without the underlying skills (20% K and 4% BB). He has been the beneficiary of 86% LOB. His stuff has declined in terms of velocity and movement. Pfaadt already had below-average velocity from the right side (93.2 mph). It could be a pitch mix thing because he has increased the usage of his curve (+10%), but batters are hitting .313 with a 259 wRC+ against it. It could be a small sample issue, but the lack of strikeouts and drop in Stuff+ (103 to 95) is concerning for someone who was expected to break out this year.
Tylor Megill-Mets-SP
Tylor Megill went 6.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 9 K's against the Nationals. Megill has a 1.74 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 6 GS. Megill has been able to miss bats (28% K) but has struggled with control (10% BB). The good news here is that he has displayed improved stuff this year. He is throwing his sinker and changeup more. The sinker has gone from 10% usage to 22% this year. Megill has also improved the movement on his changeup, which is also reflected in the increased usage. It gives him a true four-pitch mix that he can use against batters from both sides of the plate. Megill looks primed for a true breakout season. Hopefully, he can stay healthy. He gets a road start against the Cardinals next week.
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