Matt McLain (2B-CIN) went 1-4 with a strikeout as he batted 9th against the Cubs on Friday. The 25 year-old has largely scuffled in his return to action after missing the entire 2024 campaign, compiling a .179 average, 6 homers, 18 RBI, 24 runs scored, and 11 steals (in 11 chances) across 203 PA. His strikeout rate is up to 31.5% (was 28.5% in 2023) while his contact rate is predictably down a bit to 74% overall (74.5% in 2023). The good news is that McLain's walk rate is up to 10.5% (from 7.5%) while his in-zone contact rate is improved from 2023 (up from 83% to 84.5%). Also encouraging is the fact that his Statcast profile shows a 48% hard-hit rate (up from 42%), 10% barrel rate (down slightly from 11%), and average exit velocity of 90 mph (up from 89.5). His average launch angle is up a little from 13.8 to 15.8, which has translated to a significant increase in flyballs (up from 37% to 47%). Overall, the advanced metrics suggest that fantasy owners should stick with McLain and even consider him a buy-low candidate.
Mark Vientos (3B-NYM) went 0-3 with a trio of punchouts against the Rockies on Friday. The 25 year-old's slow start to the 2025 season thus continues as he now owns a .231 average, 6 homers, 21 RBI, and 22 runs scored through his first 203 PA of the campaign. Despite the trio of strikeouts on Friday, his strikeout rate of 23.5% on the year is much improved from 2024 (29.5%) while his 14.5% swinging-strike rate (down from 16%), 71% contact rate (up from 68%), and 80.5% in-zone contact rate (up from 78%) were all better. Quality of contact is down a bit from 2024, but still solid as Statcast shows a 45.5% hard-hit rate (was 46.5% in 2024), 7.5% barrel rate (was 14%), and average exit velo of 90.5 mph (was 91). All things considered, he could be a nice buy-low candidate in fantasy.
Jose Soriano (SP-LAA) blanked Cleveland over 6 IP in which he scattered 4 hits and 4 walks while striking out a pair on 96 pitches (57 strikes). The 26 year-old righty now claims a 3.41 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 3.84 xFIP through 68.2 IP (12 starts) on the year. While that's not much of a gap between the ERA and xFIP, both his strikeout and walk rates are poor while the opposition has had little trouble registering loud contact against Soriano as Statcast shows a 46% hard-hit rate, 8% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90.5 mph. An average launch angle of -2.5 that has led to a 64.5% groundball rate has helped to limit the damage, but it's tough to trust a guy with shaky control who doesn't miss a lot of bats (10.5% swinging-strike rate). Up next is a scheduled start in Boston on Wednesday.
Jack Leiter (SP-TEX) held the Cardinals scoreless over 5.2 IP on Friday, scattering 3 hits and 2 walks while fanning 6 on 96 pitches (59 strikes). The 25 year-old righty now owns a 3.66 ERA, 7 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, and 4.88 xFIP through 46.2 IP (9 starts) on the season. The gap between the ERA and xFIP certainly suggests that some regression is coming, and neither the walk nor strikeout rate are good. Leiter hasn't missed many bats (9.5% swinging-strike rate) while the opposition has made plenty of contact (79% overall, 85.5% in zone). And there's been some loud contact, including a 38.5% hard-hit rate, 11% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 90 mph. He's slated to face the Rays on the road on Thursday, and they've been pretty middling against RHP with a .714 OPS against RHP that ranks #18 in MLB.
AJ Smith-Shawver (SP-ATL) had his promising 2025 season come to a premature end as he was transferred to the 60-day IL with a torn UCL in his right (throwing) elbow on Friday. He'll most likely undergo Tommy John surgery or an internal brace procedure. It's too bad, as the 22 year-old righty flashed some upside this season with a 3.86 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 4.15 xFIP over 44.1 IP (9 starts). With an 11.5% swinging-strike rate that was an improvement from figures posted during his previous stints to go with a lower contact rate (75.5%), Smith-Shawver was showing some fantasy upside. To be sure, the walk rate as well as his Statcast profile (which included a 51% hard-hit rate, 12.5% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 91.5 mph) indicated that he has some more maturing to do as a pitcher, but there's no denying that his raw stuff - which includes a 95.5-mph average heater, 77-mph curve, and an 83-mph splitter that was a new addition to his repertoire this season (replacing his change-up) - is intriguing for fantasy purposes. But he's now unlikely to again be fantasy relevant until 2027.
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