Miguel Vargas (3B - CWS) - Vargas went 4-4 with a double and two homers in Friday's matinee at Wrigley, and he's 10-28 with 4 2Bs and 3 HRs over the past 7 games (with only 1 K to boot). Vargas has disappointed for so long that it feels like he might even be stretching the definition of a post-hype prospect, but he's still just 25 years old and hasn't even reached 700 career MLB ABs yet, so "figuring something out" could easily still be a thing. The plate discipline and contact ability are very clearly still there, but the power and speed seem much closer to average than we thought they might develop into 4-5 years ago. Vargas was a 23/11 player in A and AA at age 21 4 years ago, so there's no reason to suspect that he couldn't still reach that level. The continual increase in his FB rate is hampering the AVG pretty significantly, and it's odd because every single time he goes back to the minors he hits a ton of line drives...one of the handful of things that have kept me interested in him over the past few seasons. The stubborn part of me keeps insisting that he can be a productive major league hitter, because the minor league track record was so strong, and has remained so despite the struggles at the top level and the ride on the promotion/demotion roller coaster. I've continued to roster him in deeper formats, and I think that he's become lineup-worthy in many over the past few weeks. The days of my expectations of .300/25/10 here are likely gone, but he could still surprise.
Adley Rutschman (C - BAL) - Rutschman had two singles and a double in the 4-3 loss to the Nationals on Friday, but he's still hitting just 214/309/345 for the season, as the 27 year old continues to see his ISO drop each year. He's become even more passive at the plate this season, cutting his swing% by over 7 to just over 37%, and he's chasing a mere 17.3% of the time to help boost his contact rate up to a whopping 88%. The LD rate remains above 20%, the exit velocity has climbed all the way to roughly league average, yet we are seeing virtually nothing in the way of production outside of a passel of walks. I'll admit that he's been a massive disappointment, but how much of this is skill stagnation and how much is luck? For what it's worth, his Statcast xAVG and xSLG are .284 and .480 respectively, numbers that we would all find perfectly acceptable I would imagine. In my mind, he has been a victim of some of the worst luck in the league so far, and while it's clear that it's past time to re-assess just how great his ceiling is, I wouldn't mind buying low here if his owner has revalued him as an average starting catcher.
Corbin Burnes (P - ARI) - Burnes dominated the Rockies on Friday, striking out 10 over 6 shutout innings and allowing 2 singles and 3 walks. We'd be alarmed if he didn't dominate the Rockies though....that lineup is simply awful, and they didn't have Coors to boost them to something approaching major-league caliber. Burnes has had a difficult schedule to start the season, facing the Yanks, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers already through 8 starts, so some nibbling could be forgiven. What disturbs me a bit though, are the 3 starts against lesser offenses, where he walked 10 in 16 1/3 innings. He has been able to navigate through the baserunners for the most part so far, but with a hard hit rate allowed of 47%, that might not last forever. The velocity has been back up to normal since skipping a start two turns ago, so perhaps I'm alarmed for nothing, but I am a bit alarmed: even the Rockies were able to post above league-average exit velocity against him, and he walked a man every other inning once again. There's enough to bother me here where I'd be shopping him a bit, just to see where his value lies.
Riley Greene (OF - DET) - Greene doubled and homered (his 11th) on Friday, extending his on-base streak to 16 games as he continues to rebound from a cold start. It's clear to me that Greene has made a conscious effort to be more aggressive this year, as the swing rate has jumped 7% to 51, encompassing both in-zone and chase rate almost equally. The contact rate hasn't suffered much at all, but the increased aggression has certainly helped the power numbers to this point, as he is on pace for 30+ HR for the first time at age 24. He's up to 30 RBI already as well, as that Tiger offense is really coming along nicely. Drafted as OF31 in the spring, I think it's safe to say that he's moved up more than 10 spots at the position already this year, and he's still on the good side of the aging curve. If he only had more speed.....still, a 4-category player is just fine.
Ivan Herrera (C - STL) - Herrera has come off of the IL scorching hot, as a 3-4 day with 2 doubles on Friday makes him 10-22 with 4 2B and a HR (plus 6 R and 7 RBI) in the 6 games since his return. Honestly, Herrera has been fabulous for the past 3 seasons for St. Louis: when he's available. Showcasing at least average contact ability, solid plate discipline, and excellent power, the 24 year old shows every sign of being able to be among the elite at the position. His inability to stay on the field is the biggest issue here, as he only managed 72 games last season and has already missed over 20 to a knee bruise this year. I am fully in on Herrera when he's healthy though: I think he's clearly a top-5 player at the position. Unfortunately, the fact that he hasn't EVER played 100 games in a 9-year professional career is pretty alarming.
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