Ceddanne Rafaela (OF-BOS) went 1-4 with a solo shot against the Rockies on Monday. The 24 year-old is now hitting .263 with 12 homers, 39 RBI, 51 runs scored, and 11 steals through 323 PA on the year. He's stuck batting last in the Red Sox lineup, but Rafaela has taken significant steps forward in his sophomore campaign as his strikeout rate is down to 19.5% (was 26.5%) and his in-zone contact rate is up from just 79.5% to 85.5%. Quality of contact is especially improved as his hard-hit rate is up to 47% (from 36.5%), his barrel rate is up to 12.5% (from 7.5%), and his average exit velo has jumped from 86.5 mph a season ago to 91 mph so far in 2025. He still chases a good bit, but that o-swing% is down a bit from 46.5% last year to 42.5% so far this season while his swinging-strike rate has dipped from 18.5% to 15%. A high average seems unlikely, but the outlook is better in that department while there's 20-20 potential here.
Colt Keith (1B/2B-DET) went 3-4 with a pair of 2B and a solo homer with an additional run scored as he batted leadoff against the Rays on Monday. The 23 year-old sophomore is now hitting .264 with 7 homers, 27 RBI, and 40 runs scored across 273 PA so far in 2025, with a 20% strikeout rate against an 11% walk rate. He's trimmed his swinging-strike rate from 10.5% a season ago to less than 9% so far this year while his in-zone contact rate is up slightly to 90%. Most encouragingly, his quality of contact is much better in 2025 as Statcast shows a 43.5% hard-hit rate (35% in 2024), 10.5% barrel rate (5.5% in 2024), and average exit velocity of 89.5 mph (up from 88). He's also hitting a few more liners (up to 22.5% from 21.5%) and more flyballs (up to 36.5% from 34.5%). The surface numbers might not be impressive, but the advanced metrics show improvement that should translate to fantasy stats.
Andrew Vaughn (1B-MIL) made an immediate impact after being called up on Triple-A Nashville on Monday as he went 1-2 with a 3-run blast and a walk against the Dodgers. The 27 year-old never lived up to his potential as #3 overall pick (2019) with the White Sox, but he's getting an audition with the Brewers after Rhys Hoskins (thumb) went on the IL. He's now batting just .193 with 6 big flies, 22 RBI, and 11 runs scored through 196 PA on the year. In his 2,451 big-league PA, Vaughn struck out at a reasonable 20.5% clip and logged a 79% overall contact rate to go with an 89% in-zone contact rate while keeping the swinging-strike rate in check at 10%. He also made plenty of hard contact with a 46% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 90.5 mph with an average launch angle of 11.7. All of that is to say that his advanced metrics are pretty solid all around and that perhaps he just needed a change of scenery. Well, he's getting that in Milwaukee and is already capitalizing on the opportunity.
Noah Cameron (SP-KC) earned the win over the Pirates on Monday as he allowed 2 runs on 3 hits and a walk while striking out 7 over 7 IP. The 25 year-old southpaw tossed 68 of his 109 offerings for strikes while yielding one homer in the outing. Cameron has impressed in his rookie campaign, compiling a 2.56 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 4.11 xFIP across 63.1 IP. The gap between the ERA and xFIP does indicate that a .199 BABIP and 84% strand rate are suppressing the ERA, though, and so fantasy owners should expect some regression going forward. After all, Cameron's control has been merely average while his 10.5% swinging-stike rate is pretty meh. The opposition has logged an 86% in-zone contact rate against him, and there's been some loud contact as Statcast shows a 40% hard-hit rate, 6% barrel rate, and average exit velo of 89.5 mph. Up next is a start against a Mets lineup that ranks 16th in the majors in team OPS against LHP with a .671 mark.
Freddy Peralta (SP-MIL) was effective as he picked up a W against the Dodgers on Monday, firing 6 shutout IP on 5 hits and a walk while recording 7 punchouts on 98 pitches (60 strikes). The 29 year-old righty is in the midst of another productive campaign as he now boasts a 2.74 ER, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.94 xFIP through 105 IP. The gap between the ERA and xFIP does point to a .249 BABIP and 84.5% strand rate suppressing the ERA, so fantasy owners should expect the ERA to regress a bit going forward. Although Peralta has continued to miss bats (12.5% swinging-strike rate), the opposition's in-zone contact rate is up to 85% (80.5% career) and opposing hitters are making more loud contact than in the past with a 37% hard-hit rate (35.5% career), 9.5% barrel rate (7.5% career), and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph (88 career). So, there are some concerning trends here as he prepares to face the Nationals at home on Sunday.
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