The gist: do these pitchers with the top 5 highest strand rates concern you for 2026? Take a closer look at defensive context, *BABIP and consider just how good these SPs really are.
*BABIP measures a player's batting average exclusively on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes not affected by the opposing defense (home runs and strikeouts).
Garrett Crochet SP BOS
BABIP .298 LOB 83.5%
Looking at the BABIP, Crochet is likely more a victim of substandard defense with the BoSox, leading to more men on base than one might expect from a dominant Lefty SP. Boston does lead the MLB with 108 errors so that checks out. Crochet, due to a fault of his own, allowed 190 runners on base, 83% of which he stranded. You can thank his 31% K Rate for that. What does this mean for 2026? Expect Boston to improve their defense so Crochet can be Cy Young in the AL. Even if they punt on defense, Crochet can whiff (29%) his way out of trouble despite an average .229 BA against him. Draft Garrett Crochet with extreme prejudice in 2026.
Freddy Peralta SP MIL
BABIP ..244 LOB 84.7%
Freddy walks a thin line: the BA against him in 2025 is a top 4 .192 despite the fact that he's allowed over 180 base runners via hit or BB. His enormous strand rate of 84.7% is backed by the 29.4 Whiff Rate and Freddy's 27.5% K Rate. The bases are often covered by opposing hitters, though Peralta is unbothered by their presence, protected by the Brewer's top 10 defense. His OBP is .280, not ideal, but as long as he continues to strike batters out at a high rate and be backed by Brewer defense, Freddy is a Cy Young candidate and fantasy gold.
Jacob deGrom SP TEX
BABIP ..229 LOB 84.3%
Second only to Peralta in BA allowed at .193, deGrom has re-climbed Jacob's ladder to the top of the starting pitching echelon. His top-tier Texas defense provides some good reason for the 84% Strand Rate, pointing to some sustainability if he stays on the Lone Star Rangers. Throw in a second best OBP of .241 and you have a pitcher with very few holes. A sparkling 27% K Rate and a 0.92 WHIP reveals vintage deGrom, a pitcher with repeatable numbers for 2026 with the extremely obvious caveat of watch for any health scares.
Gavin Williams SP CLE
BABIP .250 LOB 83.2%
Gavin has given up some of the most baserunners in 2025 at nearly 200 (including all hits and BB) while stranding a staggering 128 runners. Cleveland has a low-tier defense in terms of errors committed and fielding percentage, so Gavin is grabbing his bootstraps often enough to get out of trouble, buoyed by a 23% K Rate and 26.9% Whiff Rate to escape problemo. However, the sustainability may be suspect, as Williams has a worrying .311 OBP, something to keep in mind when drafting in 2026. Gavin was good in 2025, but the Gavin you're getting in 2026 may not be quite as good.
Hunter Brown SP HOU
BABIP .263 LOB 82.5%
Brown was down for stifling hitters in 2025, as evident by his miniscule .197 BA allowed. Backed by a 29% K Rate, the 180 base runners allowed (via BB or hit) scored only 17.5% of the time. Houston's top 10 defense helped to ensure his top 20 groundball rate of 47% didn't often turn into singles. Brown staying down in Houston should help to maintain his 2025 value to some extent, though it's difficult to expect a pristine 1.01 WHIP with a BABIP rising up toward .265. In 2026, consider hunting Hunter as a solid SP2, hoping for a replica of . just don't expect an exact repeat of '25.
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