Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Bibee threw a CGSO tonight, posting 2 H, 0 BB, 10 K in a truly dominant night. This was obviously a really encouraging start for Bibee as his 20.3% K rate, 4.69 ERA, and 3.82 xERA are all career worsts. While I applaud Bibee for his remarkable start, there are too many reasons why I won't pay up for him in 2026. Bibee does neither garner chase nor whiff, which is surprising given his ultra-deep arsenal and general strike throwing. He's also taken basically zero steps forward in the quality of contact against department, as his EV, xwOBACON, and Hard Hit rates have basically been the same for three years. I like Bibee has a reliable, deep-league rotation piece, but as I mentioned, I won't pay for him.
Shane Baz, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Shane Baz had a start to forget going 2.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K. He allowed four hard hit balls and collected a 25% CSW. Baz has been unplayably cold, surrendering 4 ER or more in 6 of his last 10 starts. The inconsistency is something that keeps him off the fantasy radar. However, when it comes to 2026, Baz might be worth a late round flier. For starters, this was his best year yet, as he's crossed the 150 IP plateau thanks to 29 games started thus far. Baz's 24.8% K rate and 47.8% GB rate represent an excellent foundation. This explains why his 5.15 ERA is a bit misleading. xERA (3.77) and xFIP (3.84) say that he has been much better this season. The culprit for Baz is his homerun problem. Although he gets lots of groundballs, there is tremendous variance in his LA against. As a result, his 17.6% Pull Air rate against is a touch above big league average. Combine that with some bad luck, and we can see why Baz's homerun problem impacted his ERA tremendously. He has given up 26 homers, even though his xHR is only 21. Playing in a super hitter-friendly park made an impact, as the xHR value in his home ballpark was 30, second only to the Athletics' ballpark, which would've produced 32. If Baz is able to get out of that park next year, his 2026 will be much much better.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs
The second-half struggles continued for the first-half star, as PCA went 0-5 with zero hard hit balls on the night. He's 1-14 in his last four games with 5 strikeouts. While PCA has remarkable athletic tools that make him an incredible defender, runner, and give him home run ability, he's still a prolific chaser, as his 42% rate is one of the highest in the league. In fact, PCA's swing rate and chase rate are nearly identical to his 2024 figures. My suspicion is that PCA's struggles are a result of the League's adaptation. PCA saw a 56% zone rate in 2023, a 50% zone rate in 2024, and now has a 46.7% zone rate in 2025, good for below big league average. His zone contact might be up to a strong 81.6%, but teams are clearly throwing him less strikes on purpose. Since PCA has solid in-zone contact skills, he needs to tone down the swinging. PCA is an excellent 2026 play for counting stats, but in the ratio department, he'll need to make massive changes in his approach to elevate himself across a full season.
Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Crews went 1-4 with a HR, 2 RBI on one hard hit ball. He missed most of the summer with an injury, and just hasn't been great since coming back. He slashed .218/.317/.309 in August and is slashing .194/.242/.355 in September. The good news is that Crews' tools provide well for him in the counting stats, as he has 11 HR and 26 SB in only 401 career PAs. As far as quality of contact, Crews has wide variance in his LA. The 28.3% LASS isn't great, and it doesn't combine well with his career 11.6% Pull Air rate. This essentially means that crossing that 30 HR milestone might be tough on a yearly basis, but the 15-ish on a 162 game basis still makes him valuable. Now, for someone the same age as draft-mate Wyatt Langford, Crews needs to do much better in the ratio department. The good news is his .245 career xBA means he's been a bit unlucky compared to his .207 career actual average. Crews was able to cut his GB% by about 7 points, but his 49.1% is way too high compared to the 44.3% league average. At this juncture, the bull case for Crews is based on pedigree. The draft capital, defensive abilities, and running abilities will make him a full time player in 2026. We can assume his 2025 has been a bit derailed by injuries, and since he's only 23 years old right now, we can also assume we simply haven't seen the best of him. As much as I love Crews, how in or out on him I am in 2026 will be heavily dependent on ADP.
Hurston Waldrep, SP, Atlanta Braves
Waldrep didn't exactly put together the best start of his young career, going 4.2 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K. He allowed one homer on 8 hard hit balls. Waldrep has largely had an excellent freshman campaign, spinning a 2.78 ERA across 45.1 IP on 7 starts. He's going to be one of my favorites targets in 2026 drafts. He has that special ability to get both punchouts (23.8% K) and groundballs (47.1%). His 4.8 Barrel% against and 7.8 LA describe how well he's limited quality contact this season. Waldrep came into the season with a strong prospect profile of punching guys out with multiple premium offerings. He has never thrown a lot of strikes, but the ability to punchout and limit contact are real. Target him if he's cheap in 2026.
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