Jarren Duran (OF - BOS) - Duran did tie the game with a pop-up in the 9th innings on Sunday, but that 1-4 performance merely makes him 18-121 (.149) since June 1 with a horrendous 9:46 BB:K ratio. There's been more pull and more bat speed this year, but everything else looks negative, most notably exit velocity, contact rate, and chase rate. He's been dropped back down to the 7 spot in the order and is sitting against many lefties now, and despite the likely 20/20 season he has to be viewed as one of the biggest disappointments of the year. There's certainly been some bad luck, as his BABIP is 60 points below his previous career worst, but with a massive pull% and IFFB% along with the much poorer contact rate it looks like he's really selling out for power. I'd love to see him get back to hitting the ball the other way more and being a bit more discerning at the plate, which interestingly enough is what we've seen in the 8 games he's played so far in July....there just haven't been any good results yet to go along with the different approach. I stubbornly believe that he can turn this around still....watching him in the WBC this spring he looked like one of the best hitters in the game, and he was nearly a 7 win player two years ago. The talent is there, and I don't mind gambling on him as a buy-low candidate.
Gunnar Henderson (SS - BAL) - Henderson was 3-5 with a R and RBI on Sunday to finish up the first "half" with a 224/294/403 slash line. He is on pace for his 2nd 30-HR season and is playing the best defense of his career, but a notable drop in exit velocity and an increase in chase rate are some glaring red flags for the 25 year old. The pull rate is up 9% as well, which when added to the FB rate increasing by 7.4% can explain the return of the long ball, but the exit velo and bat speed drops are concerning at his young age. The .246 BABIP is part of the reason (career BABIP prior to 2026: .320), but it doesn't explain away the EV, nor the chase rate increase of 9% over the past two seasons. One reason for optimism here is that Henderson was moved back to the leadoff spot about a week ago, and the results since then have shown a return to the lower pull and chase rates of 2023-25. I do have faith in the talent here, and I'd absolutely be looking to buy low where possible.
Manny Machado (3B - SD) - The buy-low window has to be just about closed on Manny, who went 3-4 again on Sunday and is hitting 257/381/543 so far in July. He has 5 HR over the past two weeks, putting him back on pace for 30 HR, and although the AVG has been slower to recover, a large part of that is due to a BABIP that is 65 points lower than his previous career worst. The swinging strike rate is back below last year's level now as well....he looks back to normal to me. I expect a fairly typical 2nd half for the 34 year old.
Paul Skenes (SP - PIT) - Skenes moved to 8-8 on the year with a 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER outing against the Brewers on Sunday. He allowed 3 hits and a walk while striking out 7, but his velocity and spin were off for the 3rd time in the past 4 starts, and he only has 1 QS in his past 5 outings. He's still been solid, but the aura of invincibility has certainly been missing for the past month or so. There's no reason to expect the worst here, but I would certainly at least be listening to offers at this point...the number of pitchers that can throw at his velocity without injury for a 5-year period is extremely small, and we are in year 4 of health for Skenes right now.
Taj Bradley (SP - MIN) - Bradley moved to 9-3 on the season in a 7 IP, 2 ER outing against the Angels. The 25 year old allowed 6 hits (2 of them solo HR) and 2 walks with 6 K's in the start, showing excellent velocity (97.7 avg vs. season-long avg. of 96.9) on his fastball. The poor GB rate and EV allowed make Bradley pretty flammable, and I don't love the mediocre control, but the man can definitely miss bats, which gives him the upside that we all desire. He's gone 5 straight outings allowing 2 ER or fewer, a streak that is definitely in jeopardy if he does start the Twins first game after the break at Wrigley as predicted currently. I still feel that Bradley is an above average SP right now, and there is upside from here.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for tools that will help you win your fantasy championship. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
