Big variances between a pitcher’s ERA and XERA can help identify buy low and sell high targets. A low XERA and a high ERA usually means good skills but some bad luck in the form of low strand rate and/or an inflated BHIP%, while a high XERA and low ERA usually means the opposite. Here are some of the pitchers experiencing big variances between their ERA and XERA. Livian Hernadez: (3.83 ERA, 5.20 XERA): If you have rostered him, feel fortunate with the numbers that he has given you; 5-1 record, and then cut bait. The good ERA and 5 wins are more due to a 78% strand rate than his 3.5 K/9. Vincente Padilla: (3.02 ERA, 4.48 XERA): Padilla’s 5-2 record and 3.02 ERA have benefited from an 83% strand rate. The rest of his profile; 5.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 42% suggest a mediocre pitcher. Pitching his home games in hitter friendly Ameriquest Field will only make his problems worse when his strand rate normalizes......continue reading