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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

Preseason Prep- February 23, 2017

Philadelphia Phillies Spring Notes: Tommy Isn't a Regular Jo(seph) Assuming he is over the wrist tendinitis that plagued him over the winter (and all indications suggest that he is), Tommy Joseph is ready to destroy baseballs in 2017. After an abysmal first two months in 2016--one that saw him post a 3:35 BB:K rate--Joseph made some solid adjustments the rest of the way and ended up hitting 21 homers in 107 games. His elite batted ball speed numbers and hard hit rate suggest that we shouldn't see much regression in his 18 percent HR/FB rate, and with regular AB's, I see his EYE continuing to improve as well. If you miss out on the elite 1B, look for Joseph, who...

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Kyle Elfrink

Kyle Elfrink

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things! My goal over the next (now) six weeks (every Wednesday) is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

Preseason Prep - February 20, 2017

Matt Kemp, Atlanta Braves - Matt Kemp has dropped a reported 30 pounds this past offseason as the Braves wanted him to come into camp this year in better baseball shape. Kemp was outstanfing for the Braves and actually helped propel the Braves to one of the best offenses in baseball over the second half of the season. Kemp hit 19 homers in the second half and saw his average jump from.254 to .287 in the second half as well. If for some reason you think that the weight loss will make him start stealing bases again you can go ahead and forget that as his days of swiping bags are LONG gone. He's going to in all likelihood be...

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Michael Waldo

Michael Waldo

Preseason Prep - February 20, 2017

He's Catching, He's Leading Off, He's.....Kyle Schwarber? Cubs fans in Mesa were given a nice surprise on Friday when Kyle Schwarber was spotted catching a bullpen session for John Lackey. Schwarber, of course, missed most of the 2016 regular season when he suffered a complete tear of the ACL in his left knee after colliding with teammate Dexter Fowler while chasing down a flyball in the second week of the April. While manager Joe Maddon has declined to commit to allowing Schwarber to catch games in the regular season, the slugger has been medically cleared to catch 1-2 games per week during spring training. Depending on your league rules and position eligbility requirements, Schwarber likely does not currently have catcher...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

Preseason Prep- February 18th, 2017

Pittsburgh Pirates Spring Notes: Just Like the GM Drew It Up Pirates GM Neil Huntington recently indicated that he sees Drew Hutchison breaking camp in the rotation unless Tyler Glasnow wows this spring. Knowing how the budget-conscious Pirates operate and keeping in mind that Huntington traded Francisco Liriano and prospects to acquire Hutch last season, I see the former-Jay getting a shot. He didn't look great in 24 innings last season, posting a 5.25 ERA and allowing a 34% hard-hit rate, but beneath the surface signs of a breakout linger. He posted an 11% swinging-strike rate and a 60% first-pitch-strike rate, and began to show more separation between his fastball and changeup. With a full spring to work with Ray...

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Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

Catcher Sabermetric Projection Notes 2017

In our continuing series on the Sabermetric analysis that shapes our Player projections in our 2017 Player Projections Software. Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2017 catcher projections: Gattis, Evan Heavy flyball hitter (1 to 1), with an above average 32% Hard Hit rate and 104 BBS on HRs. That said his 24% HR/FB rate is not consistent with his base skills, however he does pull most of his HRs, which tends to increase the rate %, but also opens him up to opposition tactics in the future. RBI count is in line, as most of his XBH are reflected in HR count. Regression likely in 2017. Wieters, Matt Can be a top...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

Preseason Prep - February 17th, 2017

The Fifth Wheel(er) It's been a rocky road for Zack Wheeler, and it doesn't seem to be getting better just yet. In March of 2015 he tore his UCL and would miss the entirety of the season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. His rehab has been fraught with setbacks, and he would pitch just a single inning in 2016 before being shut down due to discomfort in his pitching arm. Upon first reporting to Mets camp, Wheeler experienced tenderness in his right elbow after his first bullpen session. Mets Manager Terry Collins has already said that Wheeler is going to come into the season as a starting pitcher, but is admittedly unsure of how many innings he'll be able to...

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Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

Preseason Prep- February 16, 2017

Notes from the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues... A month ago the Rangers' first base slot had a number of potential candidates. Then they signed 1B Mike Napoli for his 3rd tour of duty with them and that issue was resolved. He slugged a career high of 34 homers in 150 games with the Indians last season. Napoli's previous high? 30 homers in 113 games with the 2011 Rangers. In his first stint with Texas (2011-12,) he hit more homers on the road than in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park (or whatever it was at the time.) However, when he returned for 35 games in 2015, 4 of his 5 homers came at home. Last season, Napoli slugged 12 of his homers...

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Kyle Elfrink

Kyle Elfrink

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things! My goal over the next (now) seven weeks (every Wednesday) is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain...

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Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

Preseason Prep - Feb. 14, 2017

Indians Outfield Congratulations to the Cleveland Indians on making it to the World Series in 2016! The hope is that this year it won't come down to Michael Martinez batting in the bottom of the 10th with the season on the line, but we'll see. Many will remember that the Indians went through their postseason run without their #2 and #3 starters, but it's also quite impressive that they got so far in a season in which their three most frequent outfielders were Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, and Tyler Naquin. Not that those guys are bad, but it's not exactly a group of all-stars. Well, Michael Brantley is hoping to bounce back with a healthy 2017, but with that very...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

Preseason Prep - February 13th, 2017

Brandon Phillips, Braves - After nixing a trade to the Braves back in November, Brandon Phillips was sent to the Braves Sunday in a deal for two minor league prospects. After Phillips declined the deal earlier in the offseason the Braves moved their attention to Sean Rodriguez and signed him to a two year deal, but Rodriguez was in a car accident a few weeks back and Friday it was discovered he'll need shoulder surgery and could miss anywhere between three months and the whole season. Enter Phillips. First things first, this deal means nothing for top prospect Ozzie Albies in terms of this season as he was a real longshot to make the opening day roster for the Braves....

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Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

2017 Second Basemen Sabermetric Projection Notes

Sabermetric analysis is and has been the foundation of our Fantasy Baseball player projections since 1999. This analysis along with our founding concept of position scarcity, has helped us achieve superior consistency in projections accuracy. All of which can be customized to your league settings in our 2017 Player Projections Software. Let's start by looking at some of the Sabermetric indicators that are defining our 2017 second baseman projections: 2B Schoop, Jonathan Elite BBS on HRs with 106.3 last season. However Hard Hit rate dropped to only 27%, yet his 21% K rate improved. Did much better against LHP (increase from 313 to 412 SLG). His 15% HR/FB rate has upside if he can increase his Hard Hit rate...

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Kyle Elfrink

Kyle Elfrink

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things! My goal over the next eight weeks (every Wednesday) is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player...

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Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

2017 HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed

2017 HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed As I wrote last season, new baseball data continues to emerge yearly, continually granting us insight into a player's core skill/ability.  Indicators such as HR/FB rates are suddenly no longer looked at as blanket averages. We have found that each hitter uniquely contributes to their HR/FB rates, and their batted ball speed plays a big part in that.....but as it turns out there's more to the picture for this indicator. Data such as quality/frequency of contact and location of contact are helping us redefine what we once accepted as stats based on happenstance. Last season in this same study, we projected that Andrew McCutchen, Matt Kemp, Mark Trumbo, Brian Dozier, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Chris Carter, Kris...

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Kyle Elfrink

Kyle Elfrink

A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things! My goal over the next nine weeks (every Wednesday) is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

October 2nd AL Analysis

Mark Trumbo - Mark Trumbo laced four hits Saturday including his 27th double of the season. Trumbo has had a huge season and has lined himself up for potentially a good payday with a 124 wRC+ and a .256/.317/.535 in 663 PAs. His 47 homers that he's hit this year are by far his most homers in a season by over 10. Trumbo actually has a career high in HR/FB rate with a homerun coming very fourth fly ball that he hit. Nelson Cruz - Nelson Cruz sits one homer shy of his career high 2015 season after his homer Saturday. Cruz has homered in back to back games and is now in a bit of a hot streak homering...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- October 2, 2016

Archie Bradley (P-ARI): Archie Bradley won after allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts over seven innings vs. the Padres. While his 5.02 masks it, Bradley has taken a huge step forward in his development in 2016. He moved his K/9 over 9, and while his control still needs work, he did lower his BB/9 by over 1 to 4.2/9. The other key for Bradley will be improving his changeup, which will allow him to lower the .398 wOBA allowed to lefties. He has the raw skills and athleticism to put it all together in 2017. Aaron Blair (P-ATL): Aaron Blair won after allowing two runs on four hits (one homer) and one walk with...

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Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

NL Player Report- October 1, 2016

Dansby Swanson- SS- ATL- Idea- Swanson has performed well against RH pitchers as he gets his first taste of major league ball. He owns a .302/.356/.406 slash line against them. Veteran Jordan Zimmerman has had some struggles in his return from injury and has a .307/.351/.431 slash line versus RH hitting. Give the edge to the rookie in this matchup. Value play- Draft Kings salary $3500 Ben Zobrist- 2B- CHN- Hot- Zobrist has collected 3 hits 3 times in his last 7 games and is 11-for-22 in that span. Two of his hits last night were homers, giving him 17 for the season. That is Zobrist's highest total since 2012. His 93 RBI is his 2nd highest amount in his...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - October 1st, 2016

Carlos Rodon (SP, CHW): Rodon had the Twins flailing away early and often, striking out 10 over six innings of work. He allowed three runs (two earned), all in the sixth inning, on three hits and three walks. He came out of the gates with guns blazing, striking out the side in both the first and second innings, showing flashes of brilliance. He would continue to set a new AL record with seven straight K's to begin a game. After a rough first half that had him sitting with a 4.50 ERA heading into the All Star break, Rodon has really rounded into form in the second half and has chiseled his ERA just a hair under four, at 3.98....

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- September 30, 2016

Ivan Nova (P-PIT): Ivan Nova took the no-decision after allowing one run on four hits with five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a rain shortened affair vs. the Pirates. Nova finishes the year with a 3.71 xFIP and a 127:28 K:BB ratio over 162 innings. Nova took several giant steps forward this year, pushing his first pitch strike rate to 62 percent and his swinging strike rate to 9.4 percent while lowering his walk rate to an elite 4.1 percent. While he may land a deal away from Pittsburgh and Ray Searage, the Searage effect--as evidenced by J.A. Happ's 2016--should translate wherever he ends up, which should put him on all radars for a solid middle round pick. Yasiel...

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Key Articles
Fantistics Analysts Twitter Updates

Pitchers: Hard Hit Rate and the relationship to BABIP against

It's widely accepted and understood that hitters do have control on their BABIP range. BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play is not a one size fits all indicator. Examples of this include quick runners who have a higher...

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