2016 MLBTM Player Projections
Expert Player Projections
Custom Fantasy Rankings
Draft Software
Auction Values
Mock Draft Simulator
Rookie Evaluations
Advanced Databases

 



 

Categories

Expert Pages

Search this blog

Monthly Archives

Recent Posts

Subscribe

Society for American Baseball Research

Sponsors

Our fantasy player projections win championships
We are innovators in designing a winning draft day strategy
Our player projections are developed and maintained by a professional sports statistician
Our draft software is the most advanced fantasy tool available
We've aided thousands of fantasy champions since 1999
Over 84% of our subscribers are repeat customers
  More
"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's baseball's version of the theory of relativity."
 
"Fantistics InsiderBaseball is one of the better fantasy baseball websites"
 

Email Subscription

10 Most Popular Posts

 

 


Phil Double

Phil Double

NL Player Analysis-September 23, 2016

Freddie Freeman-Braves-1B Freddie Freeman was 1-3 with a run scored and two walks against the Marlins. Freeman raised his season line to .303/31/85 and he has even thrown in 6 SB. He also has been extremely hot as of late. He is hitting .478 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, and 2 SB over his last seven games. Freeman has boosted his overall stat line with a huge second half (.328/15/51). Freeman's value will increase as the Braves team gets better around him. Jeremy Hellickson-Phillies-SP Jeremy Hellickson went 4.1 IP and gave up 6 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 1 K's against the Mets. Hellickson now has a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 24% K. He has really turned...

Comments |

continue reading

Michael Waldo

Michael Waldo

AL Player Analysis - September 24, 2016

Chris Archer (BOS) - After the disaster April that his owner's endured, Chris Archer is likely a curse word in most of their vocabularies. You might want to reconsider that thought process heading into the 2017 draft season. Over the second half, Archer has put together a really strong performance, not far off where he performed during the entire 2015 season. Looking at his ERA, it's easily his worst mark of any season that he has thrown more than 100 innings, but his xFIP tells the story of a pitcher who actually enjoyed the second best season of his career. Since xFIP takes "home run luck" out of the FIP equation by neutralizing the pitcher's actual rate to the league...

Comments |

continue reading

James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 23, 2016

Justin Upton It took him a while, but Upton has finally looked like the guy you were hoping for when you drafted him this season, and if you were able to make it into the playoffs of your league even with Upton, you're actually probably loving his timing. Upton hit his 16th home run since the All-Star break in Game 1 of the Tigers doubleheader Thursday. Upton is still hitting just .237 for the season, but his 26 home runs help to make up for that. With his hot second half, Upton is once again going to draw a bit of pre-season buzz for 2017. "Hey, look at what Upton did in the second half" will flit across your mind...

Comments |

continue reading

Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

NL Player Analysis - September 23rd, 2016

Seth Lugo (SP, Mets): Lugo has shown some late-season promise in his results, but failed to record a quality start against the Phillies. He lasted five innings, giving up three earned runs on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts. Homers haven't been a problem for him, but he gave up solo shots to Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp, accounting for most of the damage against him in this one. He's just under a home run per nine on average over his 53.2 innings for the Mets this year, and his ERA is a very enticing 2.61 over that span. His FIP is far less kind however, at 4.12, and if you regress his home run per fly ball...

Comments |

continue reading

Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

NL Player Analysis - Sept 22, 2016

Jerad Eickhoff, SP, PHI Eickhoff collected his 6th straight quality start on Wednesday, allowing 3 ER's on 3 solo HR's in 7 IP. The recent results have been pretty good for Eickhoff, who has a 3.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last 11 starts, but he has also now allowed a whopping 7 HR's in his last two appearances. Homeruns have been a problem in general for Eickhoff, whose 29 HRA's tie him for most in the NL in that category. Even during his recent solid stretch, he has benefited from an unsustainable .247 BABIP and has a less than stellar 4.61 xFIP, so it's hard to expect him to keep up the good work on a regular basis....

Comments |

continue reading

James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 22, 2016

Felix Hernandez King Felix looked better Wednesday, going seven shutout innings, while only allowing four hits. Of course, because this is 2016, the statline wasn't all good, as he also walked three and only struck out four. I've been pumping the brakes on Felix all year, and I still don't feel great about him heading into 2017. If you took him this year, you've survived, but a 3.61 ERA and just 116 strikeouts (in 144.2 IP) isn't exactly what you were hoping for. Hernandez's metrics have been trending down for a couple seasons now, and while the Mariner ace is "only" 30 years old, that's an old 30. Only four active pitchers have thrown more career innings than Felix, and...

Comments |

continue reading

Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

September 21st NL Player Analysis

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins - Jose Fernandez dominated the Nationals with 8.0 shutout innings and 13 strikeouts. In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery he's been incredible throwing 182.1 innings while striking out 253 batters (12.49 per 9). His walk rate has jumped a bit to 2.71 but that's the only knock on Jose that I can see. He has a near career best 14.1% swinging strike rate and despite the lowest swing percentage that batters have against him, he also has the lowest contact rate of his career against him. So batters are being smarter at what pitches they swing at and still can't touch him, that's the mark of a true ace. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta...

Comments |

continue reading

David Regan

David Regan

AL Daily Notes - September 21, 2016

James Shields (SP-CHW) - It's hard to know what to make of Shields' prospects for 2017, but if you like him and want to buy low, chances are you'll be able to. Shields was pummeled for seven runs (six earned) over 5.1 innings on Tuesday against the Phillies. The poor outing gave Shields a 7.11 in 20 starts since coming to the White Sox from San Diego, and a 5.98 ERA overall. Shields has seen his BB/9 spike to 4.1 this year to continue a troubling three-year in which that rate has jumped from 1.7 to 3.6 last year, and now to over 4. Factor in an incredible 38 home runs, and is there any doubt this is a guy...

Comments |

continue reading

Schuyler Dombroske

Schuyler Dombroske

AL Daily Notes - September 20th, 2016

Ryon Healy (3B) OAK - Healy homered again Monday, giving him 5 for the month to go along with a 10-game hitting streak. His contact rate has skyrocketed this month, as he's limited the K's to just 10 in 68 ABs (he fanned 23 times in 99 August ABs, for comparison). As Nate mentioned, the AVG looks to be a bit above where you'd expect given the batted ball data, but the power is clearly not, as the rookie has 453 and 472-foot homers to his credit in just the past week. That'll play even in Oakland, and as he'll be just 25 entering 2017, he has to be considered a reasonable mixed-league option at least as a CI. Carlos...

Comments |

continue reading

Phil Double

Phil Double

NL Player Analysis-September 18, 2016

Ivan Nova-Pirates-SP Ivan Nova went 3 IP and gave up 3 ER on 9 H, 0 BB, and 2 K's against the Reds. Nova now has a 4.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 19% K. He has posted a 2.79 ERA with a 17% K-BB ratio in the second half. Nova has really benefited from the National League and PNC Park. He has seen his HR/FB rate drop significantly (21%-13%). This was his main problem in New York as he has always had good control and the ability to induce weak contact (52% GB). Nova has starts with the Nationals and Cubs to end the year. Both matchups are tough on paper, but both are at home, which is a great...

Comments |

continue reading

Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

AL Player News- September 19, 2016

Daniel Norris (SP-DET): Daniel Norris won after allowing one earned run on five hits and one walk with six strikeouts over five innings vs. the Indians. Jon Gray better watch out, because there is a new man crush alert in Daniel Norris. The left-hander who lives in a van down by the river is finally healthy and tapping into his enormous potential. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start the entire season thanks to a more aggressive approach as represented by a 11-percentage point spike in his first-pitch-strike percentage. Lefties who throw 92-94 MPH and flash a potential four-pitch arsenal should find their names on a Post-it note next to your off-season prep materials. Ariel Miranda (SP-SEA):...

Comments |

continue reading

Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- September 18, 2016

Jon Gray (SP-COL): Jon Gray struck out 16 in a four-hit, complete-game shutout at home vs. the Padres. What a breakout season 2016 has been for Gray, who now has a 172:53 K:BB ratio with a 3.57 xFIP through 158 2/3 innings. The development of his secondary offerings, especially the curveball, along with the improvement in his first pitch strike percentage have fueled the breakout and have enabled him to succeed at home. He may drop into the middle rounds thanks to the Coors stigma, which will create a great buying opportunity 2017. Tom Murphy (C-COL): Tom Murphy went 2-for-4 with two homers and five RBIs. Murphy posted 1.008 OPS with 19 homers in 80 games at Triple-A prior to...

Comments |

continue reading

Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - September 17th, 2016

Chris Archer (SP, TB): Archer turned in a quality start against the Orioles, throwing six and one-third innings and allowing three runs on seven hits and one walk. He tallied four strikeouts, a bit of a low number for him, and didn't factor into the decision. Archer was a true horror to own over the first few months of the season. He was giving up homers by the bushel, and his walk rate had increased dramatically from the 2015 version of Archer that drew Cy Young consideration. A quick look into his pitch deployment for the season unveils that around the time he turned his season around in July, he cut the usage of his changeup by more than half,...

Comments |

continue reading

Michael Waldo

Michael Waldo

NL Player Analysis 9-17-16

Trea Turner (WAS) - Trea Turner has been everything that fantasy owners could have hoped for and more (especially if your name is Dusty Baker!). Finally forcing Baker to play him everyday, Turner is making it impossible to not be placed in the starting lineup on a daily basis. Turner has been a fantasy superstar - stuffing the box score in all 5 of the standard categories. In 56 games, Turner is hitting .349/.369/.558 with 28 extra base hits, 32 RBI, 45 runs, and 26 stolen bases. With this said, his 77% contact rate is below average and his 34.7% hard hit rate is solid, but not out of this world, suggesting there's some downside to his batting average. Looking...

Comments |

continue reading

Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

NL Player Analysis - September 16th, 2016

Andrew McCutchen (OF, Pit): McCutchen has had a vexing season, but he was on point in Thursday's contest, launching two solo home runs as part of a 15-3 thrashing of the Phillies. He finished 3-5 with three runs and three RBI. Despite hitting second or third in the Pirates lineup all season, he's sitting at only 75 runs and 66 RBI, and his on base percentage has seen a huge collapse this year, which can be blamed at least in part for the low run total. Cutch hasn't had a season with an OBP lower than .400 since 2011 when it was .364, but this year he's put up a career-low .331 OBP. The 10% walk rate is indeed the...

Comments |

continue reading

James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 16, 2016

Brian Dozier Dozier continued his scorching hot second half, stealing a base and collecting two more RBI in the Twins win over the Tigers. The steal was Dozier's 15th of the season, giving him 56 combined HR+SB. Only Billy Hamilton (nearly all thanks to steals) and Jonathan Villar (16 HR, 54 SB) have more combined HR+SB this season. Dozier is an interesting case heading into 2017. On the one hand, he hasn't yet hit 30 years old, and he has increased his home run total each and every season in the major leagues. On the other hand, there simply has to be some regression at some point, right? This is a guy who barely reached double-digit home runs in the...

Comments |

continue reading

Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

AL Player Report- September 15, 2016

Lonnie Chisenhall- 3B- CLE- Idea- Having James Shields on the mound will give some Indians' hitters a chance to feast. Chisenhall owns a slash line of .308/.346/.471 against RH pitching to take against Shields' .287/.376/.507 slash line against LH hitting. Value play- Draft Kings salary $3800 Dioner Navarro- C- TOR- Cold- A waiver deadline trade to Toronto didn't do much to get Navarro going this year. His average now stands at .207, a point lower than he had on July 10. Regression to the mean never kicked in for Navarro, either. His BABIP is .248, only 7 points higher than July 10. That's still well below his career mark of .275. Navarro's soft-hit ball % has risen from 14.4% last...

Comments |

continue reading

David Regan

David Regan

NL Daily Notes - September 14, 2016

Roman Quinn (OF-PHI) - I don't know if Quinn is more than a utility guy going forward, but he's certainly making his case to be so this month. Quinn was 2-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored Tuesday and is now batting a solid .400/.538/.600. Okay, it's only 13 plate appearances, but still, impressive nonetheless. Quinn hit .287/.361/.441 with 31 steals in 71 games at Triple-A this year, and overall has 37 steals between three levels, including the big leagues. Quinn's lack of power has kept him from ranking too high on prospect lists, but he could eventually slot in as a top-of-the-order hitter with his speed and on-base ability. He'll likely have to win a job next spring....

Comments |

continue reading

Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - September 14th, 2016

Drew Smyly (SP, TB): Smyly was solid but unspectacular against the Jays, pitching five and two-thirds innings while allowing two runs with a walk and four strikeouts. He managed to get his ERA under five, although 4.98 is nothing to write your mom about. It's been a big disappointment of a season for Smyly, who has managed to been a terrible play despite starting 28 games for a career high 164.1 innings. His strikeouts have ticked way down from the 10.40 K/9 he posted a year ago across 12 starts, down to an 8.71 rate this year. His swinging strike rate is down a bit, but his 10.8% rate this season still points towards a K per inning. He's getting...

Comments |

continue reading

Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

AL Player Analysis - Sept 13, 2016

Jose Bautista, OF, TOR Bautista hit his 18th HR on Monday against the Rays, but also struck out twice in the game. Over the past 6 years, Bautista's K% has settled between 14-17%, yet since returning from the DL on July 25th, that number has reached over 25%. He has never been a high BABIPer, so the increase in strikeouts is a disaster for his BA, which indeed currently sits at a depressing .228. Bautista is also most likely to finish with his lowest HR total since 2009, but he did miss significant time with an injury. He is a BA risk, but he's also a good bet for 30 HR's if he can stay healthy in 2017. Max Kepler,...

Comments |

continue reading

Key Articles - view all

Key Articles
Fantistics Analysts Twitter Updates

Pitchers: Hard Hit Rate and the relationship to BABIP against

It's widely accepted and understood that hitters do have control on their BABIP range. BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play is not a one size fits all indicator. Examples of this include quick runners who have a higher...

Comments (1) |

continue reading

Please feel free to inquire about any of our products: info@fantistics.com

 

Copyright 2007-2016 Fantistic Technologies All Rights Reserved.

The term MLB is a registered trademark of the Major League Baseball and is not affiliated with Fantistics, nor endorsed.