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Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

AL Player Analysis - July 29, 2016

Max Kepler, OF, MIN Kepler hit his 11th HR of the season on Thursday, giving him more homeruns in 58 big league games this year than in any of his seasons in the minor leagues. While the power is a bit of a surprise, it also looks somewhat legit, as both his FB% (39.4%) and Hard% (38.9%) are relatively high. His contact has also been decent, so expect his BA to rise from its current .243 mark once his .259 BABIP positively regresses. With all 11 of his HR's and 36 of his RBI coming in his last 39 games, Kepler looks like a solid waiver-wire pickup right now. Eduardo Nunez, SS, 3B, MIN Nunez was traded to the Giants...

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Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

NL Player Report- July 29, 2016

Freddie Freeman- 1B- ATL- Idea- Freeman has hit 13 homers in 237 ABs against RH pitching. Vincent Velasquez has given up 7 HR in 41 IP against LH hitting. That makes a good chance of Freeman launching one. Value play- Draft Kings salary $4000 Tyler Anderson- P- COL- Rookie- The rookie threw his 6th quality start in 9 outings this season. In two of those other games he was 1 out away from a quality start, having only allowed 2 runs in 5.2 IP. Anderson only allowed 4 runs in the other start, so he has pitched consistently in his young major league career. Yesterday he held the Mets to a single run on 7 hits while walking no one...

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Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

NL Player Analysis - July 28, 2016

I recieved a request to write about Giancarlo Stanton, so we'll start with that: Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA With another HR on Wednesday, Stanton now has 10 dingers and 28 RBI over his past 30 games with an OPS over 1.00 during that time. His K% over those 30 games is still high at 28.5%, but that's actually right around his career norm, and significantly better than the 33.7% mark he posted through his first 58 games this season. Don't expect Stanton to hit for a high average, but it looks safe to say that he is past the heavy slump that plagued him earlier in the season, and he can be counted on to produce elite power numbers the...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

NL Player Analysis, July 27th

Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates - July has been a very painful month for Polanco (.204/.259/.333) after his extremely strong first half, but is finishing the month strong collecting hits in five of his last six game including a 4-for-4 game on Tuesday. He homered for the first time since July 4th, and his stolen base Tuesday was the first since June 19th. It was only his third stolen base attempt since June 19th, but it is nice to see that he has stolen base attempts in back-to-back games. His contact in July has been flat out just bad as well as his oppo% has jumped up to 26%but his had contact has also dropped to an abysmal 23.8% considering he...

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David Regan

David Regan

AL Daily Notes - July 27, 2016

Melvin Upton Jr. (OF-TOR) - I'm sure you all know by now that Upton has been traded from the Padres to the Blue Jays. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, it looks as if his value will take a bit of a hit. Toronto manager John Gibbons stated Tuesday that Upton would start against all lefties and "occasionally" give other outfielders a day off. That sounds like maybe three starts a week and perhaps a pinch-hitting effort on occasion. Upton came to the AL batting a modest .256/.304/.439, but it was his counting stats (16 HR, 45 RBI, 20 SB) that made him particularly attractive to fantasy owners. Don't expect that level of production to continue in Toronto given their loaded...

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Schuyler Dombroske

Schuyler Dombroske

AL Daily Notes - July 26th, 2016

Alex Bregman (3B) HOU - Alex Bregman got the call on Monday and was immediately inserted into the lineup at 3B, batting sixth against Michael Pineda and the Yankees. He had a rough opener, striking out twice in an 0-4 performance (although narrowly missing a grand slam to the opposite field in the 6th), but good times should be ahead for the 22 year old. Bregman's ISO has increased at every minor league level (culminating at .308 in 18 G at AAA), and he's shown excellent contact ability as well. The Astros have been working him out in 3B and LF recently, and I'd expect him to play a little of both with Luis Valbuena getting a bunch of 1B...

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David Donahue

David Donahue

NL Player Commentary - July 25, 2016

David Dahl (OF - COL) - David Dahl recorded his first career hit and run scored last night. Dahl is a highly touted prospect in Colorado that should be owned in all formats. Prior to being called up, he was on fire in AAA. With half of his games coming in Colorado, he immediately becomes an intriguing option in most formats. We've seen how Trevor Story can perform as a rookie, so owners should hope to catch lightning in a bottle with Dahl as well. Ryan Braun (OF - MIL) - Ryan Braun has been playing extremely well of late, and continued the pace last night by recording a hit, a few walks, and his 12th stolen base of the...

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Phil Double

Phil Double

NL Player Analysis-July 24, 2016

Vincent Velasquez-Phillies-SP Vincent Velasquez went 6 IP and gave up 4 ER on 7 H, 4 BB, and 5 K's against the Pirates. Velasquez has a 3.34 ERA with an excellent 27.8% K. He has an average walk rate (8.5%) and his 40% FB would normally lead to a lot of damage being done against him, but his strikeout rate allows for both of those to play. Pitching in the National League has been a big boost for the young right-hander. Velasquez also has a distinct home and road split. He has a 1.74 ERA at home vs. 4.74 on the road. There is also the issue of an innings limit for Velasquez. He has now eclipsed his innings total...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - June 25th, 2016

Kennys Vargas (DH, Min): Vargas returned to the Twins earlier this month, and so far his success from Triple-A has carried over to the Major League level. He went 1-4 with a two run homer and a walk, and in his first 56 plate appearances this season he's put up a .326/.429/.717 slash with three home runs and nine doubles. He's still striking out 26.8% of the time, which is much too high, but he's making a ton of hard contact at 48.3%. His nine walks in those 56 PA's are encouraging as well; he's posted double-digit walk rates throughout many of his minor league seasons, but has only a career 6.2% BB% in the majors. He's a player with...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

AL Player Analysis, July 24th

Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays - Saunders' blistering start to the season has slowed a ton as of late as he's now only homered four times since his three homer game on June 17th. Saunders launched a pair of homer Saturday giving him three bombs in the last two days. It's not like he's just in a power drought through... In that same span (June 18th-today) he's triple slashing .222/.307/.364 with a 29.8% K rate, all adding up to a 79 wRC+. We can't even chalk it up to a low BABIP either as it's still a .308 over this date span. He's stopped hitting fly balls at the same rate and that look to be really the only reason...

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Michael Waldo

Michael Waldo

NL Player Analysis - July 24, 2016

Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - Giancarlo Stanton hit his 21st homerun of the season and added 3 other hits to lead the Marlins offense over Jacob deGrom and the Mets. It was Stanton's first home run since the Home Run Derby. Stanton has turned it around since the beginning of the month, but the contact issues have remained there (68.7% contact rate). Fortunately, it has been masked by an unreal 52.6% hard hit rate over that stretch. He should continue to produce elite power numbers in the second half, but don't be expecting it to come with a good batting average. It's going to be difficult for him to return 1st round value this year. Want some good news? He's just...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- July 23, 2016

Hernan Perez (3B/OF-MIL): Hernan Perez, who has nabbed full time AB's since the Aaron Hill trade, went 2-for-4, drove in a run, and stole his 12th base. Perez has a 43% chase-rate and a 24% strikeout-rate to go with a 4% walk-rate. He did show a more mature, contact-oriented approach in the minors, and look for him to continue to improve as the season progresses. He is already hitting the ball on the ground (45%), making solid contact (34%), and stealing bases at a high rate (12/15). Given the paucity of stolen bases in fantasy baseball, Perez should be owned in all leagues. Dexter Fowler (OF-CHC): In his first game back from a hamstring injury Dexter Fowler lit up the...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - July 22nd, 2016

Dylan Bundy (SP/RP, Bal): Bundy was effective but inefficient against the Indians, allowing only one unearned run in his second start of the season. He needed 87 pitches to get through five innings, striking out five batters without issuing a walk. He threw 26 changeups averaging 85.9 MPH and got whiffs on 6 of them, which equates to 23.1%, or roughly 8.2% better than the average changeup. Pair that with his incredible fastball that averaged 95.2 MPH and generated roughly double the league average whiff rate at 12.5% and a curve that averaged 77.5 MPH and you've got three very different pitch speeds to keep batters guessing with. Digging into these results makes it easy to remember that he came...

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Kyle Elfrink

Kyle Elfrink

Week 17 Waiver Targets by Kyle Elfrink

Often when we think back to our best waiver grabs, we glom onto the hitters or pitchers that we grabbed in late-April or early-May and rode to 130 games of success. But, with August creeping up on us, we're not only down to just 60-plus games on the schedule, but we're also down to scraps and driftwood. You should be trying to snag streaky guys in the early stages of a hot streak. Sifting through very average pitchers with two-start weeks becomes more critical. Or, how about that player who's been stuck in a pinch-hitting role all year, but who now is set for everyday action because his team has waved the white flag of surrender, sending multiple starting bats...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- July 22, 2016

Ryan Schimpf (2B-SD): Ryan Schimpf went 1-for-3 with two runs and one walk as he continues to log regular playing time for the Padres. While Schimpf has displayed questionable contact and bat-to-ball skills throughout his MiLB career, he has done one thing consistently well: hit for power. However, while 45% hard-contact rate is elite, his batted-ball speed and homerun distance numbers suggest his 24% HR/FB rate is inflated. As long as you temper expectation about the batting average, I still see Schimpf delivering solid fantasy value for deep-leaguers down the stretch. Where there is full-time playing time, there is value. Andrew Cashner (SP-SD): Andrew Cashner allowed one earned run on three hits in 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out...

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David Regan

David Regan

Prospect Spreadsheet Updates - July 22, 2016

1 Yoan Moncada BOS 2B A AA Has found his power stroke in AA and is looking like a 2016 callup candidate. 2 Alex Bregman HOU SS A- AAA Playing some 3B and OF now, so expect an August callup. 3 J.P. Crawford PHI SS A- AAA Has overcome slow first half to hit .353 with 3 HR in July. 4 Andrew Benintendi BOS OF A- AA .985 OPS and a 6:7 K:BB. Might be ready for a 2016 callup. 5 Trea Turner WAS SS A- MLB Four straight starts due to injuries and has three steals. May be tough to bench him. 29 Justus Sheffield CLE SP B A+ 34 K in last 25.1 innings and pitching above his...

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James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - July 21, 2016

Tyler Duffey Duffey had another start in what has been a frustrating 2016 season. Duffey went just 2.1 innings against the Red Sox on Thursday, giving up six runs on nine hits and a walk, and striking out none. It was clear to see coming in that the match up didn't favor Duffey, and the Sox can hit the piss out of the ball, and Fenway eats up pitchers and spits them out. Hopefully if you have Duffey on your squad (likely in AL-Only or 18+ team leagues), you saw the writing on the wall and benched him. That being said, I still like Duffey as an AL-Only option. He is just 25 years old, and last season sported...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

AL Player News- July 21, 2016

Byron Buxton (OF-MIN): While the Twins bats squeaked out the win, Bryon Buxton continued to struggle, going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts. The former top-prospect now carries a 9:70 BB:K ratio in 182 plate appearances with one homer and seven steals. Quite simply, he isn't making enough contact (68% contact rate, 15% swinging-strike rate), and when he does, he isn't making the solid variety (27% hard-hit rate). The problem for keeper leaguers is that his value has dropped so far that it now makes sense to hold. I wouldn't give him away and still believe in the talent. Some guys take the long route. Evan Gattis (C/DH-HOU): Evan Gattis went hitless in two at-bats before exiting in the game in the...

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David Regan

David Regan

NL Daily Notes - July 20, 2016

Jameson Taillon (SP-PIT) - Taillon made his return from a shoulder injury an interesting one Tuesday against the Brewers. Despite taking a 105 mph comebacker off the back of his head, Taillon stayed in the game to allow just one run in six innings in a no-decision. He allowed five hits while walking one and striking out three. Taillon made just 65 pitches in the efficient outing that lowered his ERA to 3.44, but it seems likely he would have gone deeper into the game if not for getting hit on the head. The strikeouts aren't quite where we would like them as fantasy owners (24:5 K:BB in 34 IP), but as he gains strength and experience with his secondary...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - July 19th, 2016

Brian Flynn (SP/RP, KC): Flynn fell to 1-1 after a rough start against the Indians. Moving from the bullpen to take Chris Young's spot in the rotation, Flynn made his first MLB start since 2014. He allowed three earned runs on four hits and a walk in two and one-third innings, striking out only one batter. He threw 43 pitches but they clearly didn't get him deep into the game, and if the Royals decide to give him another start or two, he will be let loose for larger pitch counts. It's an experiment best left to the Royals and not fantasy players at this point, as they try to catch lightning in a bottle twice after what Danny Duffy...

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Key Articles
Fantistics Analysts Twitter Updates

Pitchers: Hard Hit Rate and the relationship to BABIP against

It's widely accepted and understood that hitters do have control on their BABIP range. BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play is not a one size fits all indicator. Examples of this include quick runners who have a higher...

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