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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

October 2nd AL Analysis

Mark Trumbo - Mark Trumbo laced four hits Saturday including his 27th double of the season. Trumbo has had a huge season and has lined himself up for potentially a good payday with a 124 wRC+ and a .256/.317/.535 in 663 PAs. His 47 homers that he's hit this year are by far his most homers in a season by over 10. Trumbo actually has a career high in HR/FB rate with a homerun coming very fourth fly ball that he hit. Nelson Cruz - Nelson Cruz sits one homer shy of his career high 2015 season after his homer Saturday. Cruz has homered in back to back games and is now in a bit of a hot streak homering...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- October 2, 2016

Archie Bradley (P-ARI): Archie Bradley won after allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with 11 strikeouts over seven innings vs. the Padres. While his 5.02 masks it, Bradley has taken a huge step forward in his development in 2016. He moved his K/9 over 9, and while his control still needs work, he did lower his BB/9 by over 1 to 4.2/9. The other key for Bradley will be improving his changeup, which will allow him to lower the .398 wOBA allowed to lefties. He has the raw skills and athleticism to put it all together in 2017. Aaron Blair (P-ATL): Aaron Blair won after allowing two runs on four hits (one homer) and one walk with...

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Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

NL Player Report- October 1, 2016

Dansby Swanson- SS- ATL- Idea- Swanson has performed well against RH pitchers as he gets his first taste of major league ball. He owns a .302/.356/.406 slash line against them. Veteran Jordan Zimmerman has had some struggles in his return from injury and has a .307/.351/.431 slash line versus RH hitting. Give the edge to the rookie in this matchup. Value play- Draft Kings salary $3500 Ben Zobrist- 2B- CHN- Hot- Zobrist has collected 3 hits 3 times in his last 7 games and is 11-for-22 in that span. Two of his hits last night were homers, giving him 17 for the season. That is Zobrist's highest total since 2012. His 93 RBI is his 2nd highest amount in his...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - October 1st, 2016

Carlos Rodon (SP, CHW): Rodon had the Twins flailing away early and often, striking out 10 over six innings of work. He allowed three runs (two earned), all in the sixth inning, on three hits and three walks. He came out of the gates with guns blazing, striking out the side in both the first and second innings, showing flashes of brilliance. He would continue to set a new AL record with seven straight K's to begin a game. After a rough first half that had him sitting with a 4.50 ERA heading into the All Star break, Rodon has really rounded into form in the second half and has chiseled his ERA just a hair under four, at 3.98....

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- September 30, 2016

Ivan Nova (P-PIT): Ivan Nova took the no-decision after allowing one run on four hits with five strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a rain shortened affair vs. the Pirates. Nova finishes the year with a 3.71 xFIP and a 127:28 K:BB ratio over 162 innings. Nova took several giant steps forward this year, pushing his first pitch strike rate to 62 percent and his swinging strike rate to 9.4 percent while lowering his walk rate to an elite 4.1 percent. While he may land a deal away from Pittsburgh and Ray Searage, the Searage effect--as evidenced by J.A. Happ's 2016--should translate wherever he ends up, which should put him on all radars for a solid middle round pick. Yasiel...

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James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 30, 2016

Jarrod Dyson Dyson continued his nice little run of late, going 2-for-4 with an RBI triple and two runs scored. Dyson was 2-for-4 with two runs and a steal Wednesday, and had a run and an RBI Tuesday, as well. Dyson, despite just 329 plate appearances this season, has 29 steals, and could actually see a bit of an uptick in his batting average in the future. For one, Dyson is hitting .362 in September, and while that has been in large part due for an increase in his BABIP, that's to be expected because his BABIP was extremely low, especially for a speedster before this month, Even still, Dyson's BABIP is just .308 for the season, a low figure...

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Schuyler Dombroske

Schuyler Dombroske

AL Daily Notes - September 29th, 2016

Have a great winter everybody....see you next spring! Ryon Healy (3B) OAK - Healy remains hot, picking up a couple doubles and a walk in the 8-6 loss to LA. Yes, the hard contact rate and BABIP would lead you to believe that some regression is in store, but he's been one of those rare players that seems to have improved at every increasing level throughout his pro career. I think he's easily standard-sized league worthy for 2017, and at just 24, there could be even more upside....his avg HR distance of 405.4 feet is well above average, and he's still theoretically a year or two away from his athletic prime. For Thursday, Healy will be facing LHP Angel Miranda,...

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David Regan

David Regan

NL Daily Notes - September 28, 2016

Adam Wainwright (SP-STL) - Wainwright continued his lack of consistency Tuesday, allowing five runs on 10 hits over just 5.2 innings against the Reds. He was touched for two home runs while walking two and striking out six and seeing his ERA rise to 4.67 in 192.2 innings. I guess the good news is that he's stayed healthy enough to post 32 starts, but a 6.18 road ERA has been his downfall, and that's one that's impossible to explain. He's been great at home (2.92 ERA prior to Tuesday), but this is certainly a step back. On the plus side, his 7.1 K/9 is about what we'd expect, but a 2.6 BB/9 is a bit uncharacteristic, and would be his...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

AL Player Analysis - September 28th, 2016

Jose Berrios (SP, Min): Berrios had yet another poor outing against the Royals on Tuesday, lasting only four and two-thirds innings while giving up three runs. The most concerning part, however, is that he didn't strike out a single batter. He's now passed the rookie threshold, having tossed 53.1 innings for the Twins this season. With that are numbers that are plain and simply putrid; an 8.61 ERA, 7.76 K/9, 5.40 BB/9, and 2.03 HR/9. Only one of his 13 starts have been considered a quality start, and that one was 6 IP 3 ER back on August first. There had been some talk that he was tipping his changeup, allowing hitters to sit fastball/change while spitting on curveballs out...

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Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

AL Player Analysis - Sept 27, 2016

Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX Andrus went 3-4 with a 2B on Monday and continues to have a blistering September in which he's slashing .357/.430/.686 through 20 games. The hot streak has pushed his season BA to .302 which would be a career high. Andrus has always been an excellent contact hitter with decent BABIP's, yet he has never translated that into a really high BA. Part of the problem has been his complete lack of power, as over the past 6 seasons, he has averaged under 4 HR's a year despite having received over 650 PA's each year. This year, however, Andrus has managed a career high 8 HR's in thus far over 100 less PA's than his average season....

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James Turvey

James Turvey

NL Player Analysis - September 27, 2016

Yasmany Tomas Tomas hit his 30th home run of 2016 on Monday night, part of a 2-for-5 game in which he scored twice and knocked in five runs. Tomas now has 71 runs and 80 RBI in addition to his 30 home runs, impressive totals in his first full season in the majors. Of course, there is also the slightly troubling .309 on-base percentage, so which will win out in 2017? Is the 25-year-old poised for an even bigger breakout, or will his plate discipline drag him back to earth. Well the advanced metrics don't paint the most flattering picture. Tomas had a swing rate of 41.8 percent before Monday's game (in which he also struck out twice), the sixth-highest...

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Phil Double

Phil Double

NL Player Analysis-September 25, 2016

Jose Fernandez-Marlins-SP Jose Fernandez was killed early Sunday morning in a boating accident. This is one of the saddest moments in baseball history in recent memory. Fernandez was an extremely talented and popular player in his time in Miami. What he meant for the Marlins and the Cuban community cannot be understated. Fernandez's career line is a 2.58 ERA over 471.1 IP with a ridiculous 31.2% K. He will be greatly missed and the game will be without one of its brightest and most exciting young players. Robert Gsellman-Mets-SP Robert Gsellman went 7 IP and gave up 0 ER on 3 H, 2 BB, and 8 K's against the Phillies. Gsellman now has a 2.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 20.3%...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

AL Player News- September 26, 2016

Carlos Rodon (P-CHW): Carlos Rodon won after allowing two hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts over eight scoreless innings vs. the Indians. Rodon threw 73 of his 108 pitches for strikes and induced eight groundball outs in an important bounceback start. While he has looked inconsistent from start-to-start, overall, the left-hander has made some important improvements in his control while incorporating more changeups into his arsenal. His 14 percent homer-to-flyball rate should normalize, and if he continues along the development path, Rodon can deliver huge value. The surface stats will likely make the price right in 2017. Jharel Cotton (P-OAK): Jharel Cotton won after allowing one run on three hits and no walks with five strikeouts over seven innings...

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Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

NL Player News- September 25, 2016

Robbie Ray (P-ARI): Robbie Ray lost after allowing five runs (four earned) on six hits and four walks with five strikeouts over 3 2/3 innings vs. the Orioles. With the Orioles struggling against lefties and Ray thriving on the Road, the matchup had upside potential, but Ray was done in by the two things that have hampered him all season: control and the longball. He is one of only 10 pitchers to have eclipsed 200 strikeouts in 2016, however, and his 3.34 xFIP suggests that with normalized ratios, Ray has elite upside. With a matchup on tap at Washington, Ray should be started in all leagues outside of situations where ratio protection is paramount. Dan Straily (P-CIN): Dan Straily won...

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Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

September 25th AL Player Analysis

Elvis Andrus - Elvis Andrus homered twice in his 3-for-4 effort on Saturday. The homers were his seventh and eight of the season which now gives him a career high in homers along with his 68 RBI, which is also a career high. Andrus is having his best offensive season hands down with a 110 wRC+, even if it's not necessarily his best fantasy season as his stolen bases aren't quite at the numbers he used to be at. The power increase has come from a dramatic impact in his approach going from 20.9%, to 31.8% and then 28.4% FB rates. For next year I don't know that I'm going to own Andrus anywhere because I think he's a declining...

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Phil Double

Phil Double

NL Player Analysis-September 23, 2016

Freddie Freeman-Braves-1B Freddie Freeman was 1-3 with a run scored and two walks against the Marlins. Freeman raised his season line to .303/31/85 and he has even thrown in 6 SB. He also has been extremely hot as of late. He is hitting .478 with 1 HR, 7 RBI, and 2 SB over his last seven games. Freeman has boosted his overall stat line with a huge second half (.328/15/51). Freeman's value will increase as the Braves team gets better around him. Jeremy Hellickson-Phillies-SP Jeremy Hellickson went 4.1 IP and gave up 6 ER on 7 H, 3 BB, and 1 K's against the Mets. Hellickson now has a 3.78 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 24% K. He has really turned...

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Michael Waldo

Michael Waldo

AL Player Analysis - September 24, 2016

Chris Archer (BOS) - After the disaster April that his owner's endured, Chris Archer is likely a curse word in most of their vocabularies. You might want to reconsider that thought process heading into the 2017 draft season. Over the second half, Archer has put together a really strong performance, not far off where he performed during the entire 2015 season. Looking at his ERA, it's easily his worst mark of any season that he has thrown more than 100 innings, but his xFIP tells the story of a pitcher who actually enjoyed the second best season of his career. Since xFIP takes "home run luck" out of the FIP equation by neutralizing the pitcher's actual rate to the league...

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James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 23, 2016

Justin Upton It took him a while, but Upton has finally looked like the guy you were hoping for when you drafted him this season, and if you were able to make it into the playoffs of your league even with Upton, you're actually probably loving his timing. Upton hit his 16th home run since the All-Star break in Game 1 of the Tigers doubleheader Thursday. Upton is still hitting just .237 for the season, but his 26 home runs help to make up for that. With his hot second half, Upton is once again going to draw a bit of pre-season buzz for 2017. "Hey, look at what Upton did in the second half" will flit across your mind...

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Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken

NL Player Analysis - September 23rd, 2016

Seth Lugo (SP, Mets): Lugo has shown some late-season promise in his results, but failed to record a quality start against the Phillies. He lasted five innings, giving up three earned runs on four hits and two walks with four strikeouts. Homers haven't been a problem for him, but he gave up solo shots to Ryan Howard and Cameron Rupp, accounting for most of the damage against him in this one. He's just under a home run per nine on average over his 53.2 innings for the Mets this year, and his ERA is a very enticing 2.61 over that span. His FIP is far less kind however, at 4.12, and if you regress his home run per fly ball...

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Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

NL Player Analysis - Sept 22, 2016

Jerad Eickhoff, SP, PHI Eickhoff collected his 6th straight quality start on Wednesday, allowing 3 ER's on 3 solo HR's in 7 IP. The recent results have been pretty good for Eickhoff, who has a 3.34 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over his last 11 starts, but he has also now allowed a whopping 7 HR's in his last two appearances. Homeruns have been a problem in general for Eickhoff, whose 29 HRA's tie him for most in the NL in that category. Even during his recent solid stretch, he has benefited from an unsustainable .247 BABIP and has a less than stellar 4.61 xFIP, so it's hard to expect him to keep up the good work on a regular basis....

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Fantistics Analysts Twitter Updates

Pitchers: Hard Hit Rate and the relationship to BABIP against

It's widely accepted and understood that hitters do have control on their BABIP range. BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play is not a one size fits all indicator. Examples of this include quick runners who have a higher...

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