2016 MLBTM Player Projections
Expert Player Projections
Custom Fantasy Rankings
Draft Software
Auction Values
Mock Draft Simulator
Rookie Evaluations
Advanced Databases

 



 

Categories

Expert Pages

Search this blog

Monthly Archives

Recent Posts

Subscribe

Society for American Baseball Research

Sponsors

Our fantasy player projections win championships
We are innovators in designing a winning draft day strategy
Our player projections are developed and maintained by a professional sports statistician
Our draft software is the most advanced fantasy tool available
We've aided thousands of fantasy champions since 1999
Over 84% of our subscribers are repeat customers
  More
"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's baseball's version of the theory of relativity."
 
"Fantistics InsiderBaseball is one of the better fantasy baseball websites"
 

Email Subscription

10 Most Popular Posts

 

 


Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

2016 Shortstop Projection Sabermetric Notes

Sabermetric analysis is and has been the foundation of our Fantasy Baseball player projections since 1999. This analysis along with our founding concept of position scarcity, has helped us achieve superior consistency in projections accuracy. All of which can be customized to your league settings in our 2016 Player Projections Software. Let's start by looking at some of the Sabermetric indicators that are defining our 2016 Shortstop projections: SS Lindor, Francisco Decent contact rate (83%) with good GB|FB mix (1.8:1). That said his HR/FB rate of 13% was elevated based on his BBS and Distance on HRs. Lots to love here at only 22 YO, but progression will come in waves and we shouldn't expect a finished product in...

Comments |

continue reading

Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed

HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed As I wrote earlier this year, new baseball data continues to emerge yearly, continually granting us insight into a player's core skill/ability. Fangraphs.com among others, has been instrumental in bringing that quality data into a new era. When batted ball speed (BBS) on homeruns was first introduced to us by Greg Rybarczyk over at Hittrackeronline.com, it marked a turning point in the quality of data being fed to our Sabermetric generation. Indicators such as HR/FB rates were suddenly no longer looked at as blanket averages. We found that each hitter uniquely contributes to their HR/FB rates, and their batted ball speed plays a big part in that.....but as it turns out there's more to...

Comments (1) |

continue reading

Anthony A. Perri

Anthony A. Perri

Welcome to the 2016 Fantasy Baseball season

Hi Folks, Welcome to the start of our 2016 Fantasy Baseball Season! This morning we have released 2016 Fantistics Fantasy Baseball Player Projections/ Draft Advisory Software. The Windows version is available for immediate download, with the Mac version coming later this weekend. This season's version is once again packed with over 1,700 player projections and over 500 detailed player notes. The art of MLB player projections continues to evolve. With the advances in data collection, there are new indicators introduced every season which aid us in breaking down a player's core skill/ability. Indicators that measure batted ball speed, quality of contact, and location are helping us refine our projections model into unprecedented territory. Indicators such as HR/FB rates are...

Comments |

continue reading

Nicholas Rossoletti

Nicholas Rossoletti

AL Player Blog- 10/3/2015

Carlos Santana- It has been a struggle for Carlos Santana this season, which isn't necessarily a great thing considering that we have been saying that for some time. It seems the decrease in Santana's batting average that we saw in 2014 was a real issue as he maintained the .230's average with another disturbingly low BABIP. In 2014, he made up for that average by tying his career high in home runs with 27. In 2015, that power evaporated as he has managed only 18 home runs on a career low .157 ISO. All this would be at least bearable for 2016 if he were maintaining his catcher eligibility where 18 home runs with a bad batting average may still...

Comments |

continue reading

Sam Wallach

Sam Wallach

A.L. Player Report October 2nd, 2015

DFS Picks: Logan Forsythe (2B-TB) - It's hard not to pick Logan Forsythe in DFS leagues when a lefty is pitching. Forsythe's .299 AVG against LHP is 26 points higher than his AVG against RHP. He also has a 16.7 AB/HR ratio against lefties compared to a 53.3 AB/HR ratio against righties. Forsythe and the Rays are set to face Mark Buehrle on Friday. Forsythe is 10 for 25 vs Buehrle in his career. He doesn't have any home runs but four of his 10 hits have gone for extra bases. At a .40 XBH/H ratio how couldn't you take your chances on Forsythe? DraftKings Value Pick $3,500 Brandon Guyer (OF-TB) - Most of Brandon Guyer's at bats this season...

Comments |

continue reading

Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

AL Player Analysis - October 1, 2015

Xander Boegarts, SS, BOS Boegarts has been one of the few bright spots for the Red Sox this season and has by far been the top fantasy SS in 2015 according to the ESPN player rater. While he does boast a .324 BA, his 7 HR's and 10 SB's are not quite as spectacular, so it's a bit surprising that he ranks as the elite of his position. On the other hand, Yunel Escobar currently ranks 2nd among shortstops so it hasn't exactly been a deep pool. Regardless, Boegarts' value has primarily been tied to his excellent BA, which has been a result of an 8% decrease in K% but also a ridiculously high .376 BABIP. His high GB% has...

Comments |

continue reading

Nicholas Rossoletti

Nicholas Rossoletti

NL Player Blog- September 30, 2015

Michael Conforto- As we close out the 2015 season, we need to look towards 2016 assets for fantasy purposes. Michael Conforto certainly classifies as an asset of interest heading into the 2016 season. His .236 ISO has been a huge benefit to the Mets and his 9 home runs over in 183 plate appearances certainly make him an interesting player to keep an eye on. His contact rates have been fairly strong in his first go round in the majors, as he has limited his ground ball rate to 37% while hitting a fair number of line drives (24%). The Mets outfield situation is in flux, but Conforto is almost assuredly a part of the plan for the future. As...

Comments |

continue reading

Phil Double

Phil Double

AL Player Analysis-September 29th, 2015

Michael Pineda-Yankees-SP Michael Pineda went 6 IP and gave up 7 ER on 7 H, 0 BB, and 4 K in the loss to the Red Sox. The owners who held onto Pineda through all of his injuries and missed time have to come away disappointed. He still has great stuff and potential, but the lack of results coupled with his injury history makes him a high risk/upside guy heading into 2016. He has posted a 4.24 ERA (3.31 FIP). This suggests that he was unlucky in 2015 and that he has pitched better than his traditional stats indicate. He misses bats (8.76 K/9) and limits base runners (1.25 BB/9), which should come in handy next season. Jeff Samardzija-White Sox-SP...

Comments |

continue reading

David Regan

David Regan

NL Daily Notes - September 30, 2015

Matt Wisler (SP-ATL) - Perhaps the Nationals are feeling a bit deflated being out of the playoffs and having to have Jonathan Papelbon as a teammate, but Wisler's seven innings of one-run ball Tuesday was still a nice stat line. He allowed five hits and posted a 4:2 K:BB in lowering his ERA from 5.40 to 5.11 in 100.1 innings. His 6.9 K/9 is solid, though to have sustained MLB success, we'll need to see his 3.9 BB/9 come down. Still, he's won each of his last two starts and is getting valuable experience heading into 2016 where he should have a rotation spot locked up barring an ugly spring. He's listed at $6,300 in Draft Kings right now, though...

Comments |

continue reading

Schuyler Dombroske

Schuyler Dombroske

NL Daily Notes - September 29th, 2015

David Peralta - The standard September caveat of "make sure he's in the lineup" applies, but I like Peralta very much against Christian Bergman tomorrow. Peralta is priced at $3600 and is hitting 318/375/541 against RHP this year. I also still like Peralta for 2016....as a late conversion from pitching, he may very well still be developing as a bat despite his age (28). He's hit 352/388/560 in the second half with 9 HR and 5 SB. He has been protected a ton against LHP, and while he does struggle a bit against them (253/318/380 in 79 ABs), he's less helpless than many. A bit more PT against LHP could help him push the RBI total up near 100. He's...

Comments |

continue reading

Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

NL Player Report- September 28, 2015

Justin Turner- 3B- LAN- Idea- Turner has a chance to exploit some reverse splits in today's game. His slash line against RH pitching is .316/.384/.532. Jake Peavy's slash line against RH hitting is .268/.310/.414. This puts Turner in a dominant position. Value play- DraftKings salary $3200 Alex Wood- P- LAN- Cold- Wood has been on a roller coaster recently. In his last 4 starts he has two quality starts and has been touched for 8 runs twice. This is where some wild and wacky regression to the mean could be bouncing him around. The extreme performances keep his ERA and FIP flipping from one slightly higher than the other and then vice versa. Going into yesterday his ERA was 3.60...

Comments |

continue reading

James Turvey

James Turvey

AL Player Analysis - September 28, 2015

Mike Morin Huston Street is officially out for the season, and can be cut in all non-dynasty leagues in which owners were hoping for better news. Street left Saturday's game with a groin injury, and it turned out serious enough to cost Street the rest of 2015. As a result, the Angels' save opportunities are up in the air, and Sunday didn't do much to clarify the situation. Trevor Gott was the presumed favorite, but the Angels went with Mike Morin instead, and the righty sufficed, locking down the ninth with a 1-2-3 inning with a pair of strikeouts. One might point to the fact that Gott had pitched the previous two days as a reason for the Angels not...

Comments |

continue reading

Josh Sperry

Josh Sperry

AL Player Analysis 9/27

Carlos Correa - Carlos Correa launched two homers Saturday giving him on the season with 61 runs driven in. Even those who felt Correa would be a superstar have to be impressed/surprised about exactly how fast he reached the level he is at. Looking at 2016, Correa has a legitimate chance to be the first SS off the board as he leads the position in homeruns..... in 40 less games than Brandon Crawford's 20. It's likely that Troy Tulowitzki will still be the first off the board, especially now that he is in Toronto but Correa absolutely should be the second name called at the position. Jose Bautista - Jose Bautista ran his HR total to 39 with a pair...

Comments |

continue reading

Sam Wallach

Sam Wallach

N.L. Player Report September 27th, 2015

DFS Picks: The Trio Daniel Murphy (2B-NYM) - All the signs point to Murphy having a big day on Saturday. To start, Murphy will be playing in Cincinnati. Great American Ballpark has above average Park Factors in runs, home runs, and hits. Opposing pitcher Keyvius Sampson stinks at home. Sampson's record is 0-4 in Cincy with an 8.31 ERA. Overall, lefties are hitting .370 against Sampson. If you're a Met fan, you know that Daniel Murphy likes to swing. His 5.8% walk rate is proof. Along with his high swing frequency is Murphy's 92% contact rate and 7% K rate. Since he'll likely be putting the ball in play, Murphy should exploit Sampson's .354 BABIP. DraftKings Value Pick $4,500 Michael...

Comments |

continue reading

Walter Kuberski

Walter Kuberski

AL Player Report- September 26, 2015

Carlos Rodon (SP-CHW): The lefty posted a typical Carlos-Rodon start, allowing 2 earned runs in 6 innings in earning his 9th win while also walking 5 Yankees. His BB-rate, which is hovering around the 12% mark, continues to hold him back from realizing his ace potential. While elite starters typically post first-pitch-strikes at least 60% of the time, Rodon has done so at a 53% clip. His 10% swinging-strike rate is already well-above league average, and his 48% GB-rate empowers him to escape jams. He has the athleticism to tighten his control, and once he does, he will likely vault into top-10 SP territory. Until he does, however, be careful with over-drafting, as the development process isn't always linear. Kevin...

Comments |

continue reading

Menachem Greenfeld

Menachem Greenfeld

NL Player Analysis - September 25, 2015

These are a few NL players who have dissappointed fantasy owners this season and what to expect going forward: Mat Latos, SP, FA Latos has been inconsistent all year, but he was atrocious in his short stint with the Dodgers, posting a 6.66 ERA in 6 appearances (5 starts) for the team and eventually getting designated for assignment. The funny thing is that his 3.68 xFIP is right in line with his career norm, yet after five straight seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA, that number has jumped to 4.95. Even with the Dodgers, his xFIP was 3.62, and what has killed him is his suddenly low LOB%. At 62.6%, he has left far fewer runners than any of the past...

Comments |

continue reading

Paul Sauberer

Paul Sauberer

AL Player Report- September 25, 2015

Avisail Garcia- OF- CHA- Idea- Garcia has a .284/.338/.379 slash line against LH pitching. C. C. Sabathia has had his problems with RH hitting this year, borne out in his .302/.360/.499 slash line against them. Garcia has an edge in this matchup. Value play- DraftKings salary $3400 Zach Britton- RP- BAL- FYI- With the Orioles all but out of wild card contention and Britton suffering from a sore lat he may be done for the season. It was quite a season, with 34 saves in 38 chances. Britton was arguably more effective this year with his fastball/change repertoire, increasing his K/9 to 11.09 from 7.31 in 2014. His ERA rose a bit from 1.65 to 2.04 but his FIP went...

Comments |

continue reading

Schuyler Dombroske

Schuyler Dombroske

AL Daily Notes - September 24th, 2015

Justin Verlander - Verlander had a solid outing against the White Sox Wednesday, holding them to 5 hits and 3 runs over 7 innings to pick up his 10th QS in his last 12 outings. More importantly perhaps, he fanned 8, picked up 16 swinging strikes, and threw his last 5 pitches 98-99 mph, a level that he's only reached twice before in the past 2 seasons. The GB rate is certainly worse than it was in his prime and he's been a bit more fortunate with balls in play, but otherwise he looks like he's "back". I'm leaning toward valuing him as a solid SP3 heading into 2016. Kevin Pillar - Pillar has reached base in 10 straight after...

Comments |

continue reading

David Regan

David Regan

NL Daily Notes - September 23, 2015

Keyvius Sampson (SP-CIN) - It's going to be an open competition in Cincinnati for 2016 rotation spots and Sampson is looking to stake his claim for one of the five precious spots. Sampson allowed just one run over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against a tough Cardinals team Tuesday, but even with that, he's still just 2-5 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.79 WHIP over 44.2 innings. His 33:24 WHIP is awful, but then again, he's been pretty much awful for most of the year. Sampson posted a 9.6 K/9 in 103.1 Double-A innings two years ago, but over the last couple seasons, his control has fallen off the map. He's got a long way to go to win a...

Comments |

continue reading

Nicholas Rossoletti

Nicholas Rossoletti

AL Player Blog- 9/23/2015

Greg Bird- Greg Bird's early returns have been fantastic for fantasy owners. Bird has shown a very solid power profile during this first small sample of his major league career. The biggest positive that we have seen from Bird is a combination of a high fly ball percentage (50%) combined with a 23.1% HR/FB rate. These numbers would profile Bird as an elite power presence especially given his presence in the middle of the Yankee lineup. The biggest problem in 2016 will be the clog of players for limited playing time in the Yankee lineup. Bird's value moving forward will be limited until he is given the full time job at first base, which probably isn't happening until 2017. Ubaldo...

|

continue reading

Key Articles - view all

Key Articles
Fantistics Analysts Twitter Updates

HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed

HR/FB Rate: More than just Batted Ball Speed As I wrote earlier this year, new baseball data continues to emerge yearly, continually granting us insight into a player's core skill/ability. Fangraphs.com among others, has been instrumental in bringing that quality data...

Comments (1) |

continue reading

Please feel free to inquire about any of our products: info@fantistics.com

 

Copyright 2007-2016 Fantistic Technologies All Rights Reserved.

The term MLB is a registered trademark of the Major League Baseball and is not affiliated with Fantistics, nor endorsed.