The Daily Player Projections (excluding Sundays) is set to open on February 26th.

February 14th

The Masters of Inconsistency (Player Projections at Risk)

Last week we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup.

Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2006 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2006, is a recording of each player's 2006 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations).  Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.

Weekly Consistency Factor -  Worst of 2006
  Player Name Tm AB Weekly 2006 % 2-3 Yr %
1 Adam Everett Hou 514 4 16.0 33.8
2 Craig Biggio Hou 548 4 16.6 34.2
3 Brad Ausmus Hou 439 4 17.3 23.3
4 Angel Berroa KC 474 4 18.2 27.9
5 Clint Barmes Col 478 4 18.3 35.1
6 Yadier Molina StL 417 4 18.6 36.1
7 Jose Lopez Sea 603 5 19.9 19.1
8 Ronny Cedeno ChC 534 5 19.9 32.6
9 David Bell Phi 504 5 20.7 37.1
10 Joey Gathright TB 383 5 22.4 35.5
11 Jorge Cantu TB 413 4 22.4 36.6
12 Yuniesky Betancourt Sea 558 6 22.9 20.2
13 Khalil Greene SD 412 5 24.8 34.4
14 Jason Kendall Oak 552 6 25.2 32.6
15 Pedro Feliz SF 603 7 26.3 33.9
16 Royce Clayton Was 454 6 26.3 27.8
17 Juan Uribe CWS 463 6 27.3 43.9
18 Placido Polanco Det 461 5 27.3 44.5
19 Randy Winn SF 573 7 28.2 36.1
20 Geoff Jenkins Mil 484 7 28.6 38.7
21 Jeff Conine Bal 489 7 29.6 48.4
22 Marcus Giles Atl 550 7 29.8 49.0
23 Brady Clark Mil 415 7 30.4 40.1
24 Jose Bautista Pit 400 6 30.8 29.4
25 Aaron Miles StL 426 7 31.1 27.1
26 Shane Victorino Phi 415 8 31.4 36.0
27 Jhonny Peralta Cle 569 8 32.2 44.1
28 Jose Castillo Pit 518 8 32.4 34.6
29 Ronny Paulino Pit 442 7 32.6 38.3
30 Nick Markakis Bal 491 8 32.7 34.1
31 Kevin Mench Tex 446 7 33.1 38.7
32 Cory Sullivan Col 386 7 33.3 44.8
33 Jack Wilson Pit 543 8 33.8 34.2
34 Mark Ellis Oak 441 7 33.9 48.1
35 Brandon Inge Det 542 9 34.0 37.5
36 Shea Hillenbrand Tor 530 8 34.0 43.8
37 David Eckstein StL 500 7 34.1 34.0
38 Ryan Zimmerman Was 614 9 34.4 42.5
39 Adam Kennedy LAA 451 8 34.5 48.5
40 Steve Finley SF 426 8 34.5 34.8
41 Mark Loretta Bos 635 9 34.8 48.3
42 Omar Vizquel SF 579 9 35.3 38.6
43 Juan Encarnacion StL 557 9 35.3 34.9
44 Jonny Gomes TB 385 7 35.9 53.1
45 Josh Barfield SD 539 9 36.0 37.6
46 Jacque Jones ChC 533 9 36.2 42.4
47 Aubrey Huff TB 454 8 36.6 42.4
48 Ronnie Belliard Cle 544 9 36.7 43.6
49 Trot Nixon Bos 381 7 36.8 43.7
50 Melky Cabrera NYY 460 8 36.9 36.9

As you can see, almost all of 2006's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise I posted last week: Inconsistent players usually stay  inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus these players are at risk to post consistent yearly results.

We know what to expect from Adam Everett on a year to year basis: basically lack luster fantasy output. However there are players such as Omar Vizquel, Aubry Huff, Jacques Jones, Kevin Mench, Marcus Giles, Geoff Jenkins, Randy Winn, and Juan Uribe, who have posted solid fantasy production at different points in their careers. Expecting them to repeat these results in two consecutive seasons is the risk that we seek to avoid, especially on draft day.

The reason I mention "two consecutive seasons": Fantasy GMs, for the most part have a "what have you done for me lately" methodology on Draft Day. Thus you do not want to be paying for the 2006 success especially when it's coming from a player whose production is sporadic.

Here's a short list of 7 players who had a career or semi career season in 2006 and also have a poor 3 year record of consistency: Brandon Inge, Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, AJ Pierzynski, Mike Lowell.

As I mentioned in the original article on Consistency Factor  both  injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator  on the Player Pages within the software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day.

I do want to point out that rookie players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.

Have a great week,

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

 

February 7th