The Daily Player Projections (excluding Sundays) is set to open on February 26th.

February 14th

The Masters of Inconsistency (Player Projections at Risk)

Last week we introduced Consistency Factor and it's implications to both Head to Head leagues as well as all Fantasy leagues regardless of their scoring setup.

Consistency Factor gives us an indication of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. The premise: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar production in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Below is a list of the worst hitters in terms of weekly consistency in 2006 (based on 375 ABs). The column below, Weekly 2006, is a recording of each player's 2006 quality weeks (out of a max possible 26 weekly observations).  Also included is their 3 year average consistency percentage (2-3 Yr %) which is adjusted for playing time factors.

Weekly Consistency Factor -  Worst of 2006
	Player Name	Tm	AB	Weekly 2006	%	2-3 Yr %
1	Adam Everett	Hou	514	4	16.0	33.8
2	Craig Biggio	Hou	548	4	16.6	34.2
3	Brad Ausmus	Hou	439	4	17.3	23.3
4	Angel Berroa	KC	474	4	18.2	27.9
5	Clint Barmes	Col	478	4	18.3	35.1
6	Yadier Molina	StL	417	4	18.6	36.1
7	Jose Lopez	Sea	603	5	19.9	19.1
8	Ronny Cedeno	ChC	534	5	19.9	32.6
9	David Bell	Phi	504	5	20.7	37.1
10	Joey Gathright	TB	383	5	22.4	35.5
11	Jorge Cantu	TB	413	4	22.4	36.6
12	Yuniesky Betancourt	Sea	558	6	22.9	20.2
13	Khalil Greene	SD	412	5	24.8	34.4
14	Jason Kendall	Oak	552	6	25.2	32.6
15	Pedro Feliz	SF	603	7	26.3	33.9
16	Royce Clayton	Was	454	6	26.3	27.8
17	Juan Uribe	CWS	463	6	27.3	43.9
18	Placido Polanco	Det	461	5	27.3	44.5
19	Randy Winn	SF	573	7	28.2	36.1
20	Geoff Jenkins	Mil	484	7	28.6	38.7
21	Jeff Conine	Bal	489	7	29.6	48.4
22	Marcus Giles	Atl	550	7	29.8	49.0
23	Brady Clark	Mil	415	7	30.4	40.1
24	Jose Bautista	Pit	400	6	30.8	29.4
25	Aaron Miles	StL	426	7	31.1	27.1
26	Shane Victorino	Phi	415	8	31.4	36.0
27	Jhonny Peralta	Cle	569	8	32.2	44.1
28	Jose Castillo	Pit	518	8	32.4	34.6
29	Ronny Paulino	Pit	442	7	32.6	38.3
30	Nick Markakis	Bal	491	8	32.7	34.1
31	Kevin Mench	Tex	446	7	33.1	38.7
32	Cory Sullivan	Col	386	7	33.3	44.8
33	Jack Wilson	Pit	543	8	33.8	34.2
34	Mark Ellis	Oak	441	7	33.9	48.1
35	Brandon Inge	Det	542	9	34.0	37.5
36	Shea Hillenbrand	Tor	530	8	34.0	43.8
37	David Eckstein	StL	500	7	34.1	34.0
38	Ryan Zimmerman	Was	614	9	34.4	42.5
39	Adam Kennedy	LAA	451	8	34.5	48.5
40	Steve Finley	SF	426	8	34.5	34.8
41	Mark Loretta	Bos	635	9	34.8	48.3
42	Omar Vizquel	SF	579	9	35.3	38.6
43	Juan Encarnacion	StL	557	9	35.3	34.9
44	Jonny Gomes	TB	385	7	35.9	53.1
45	Josh Barfield	SD	539	9	36.0	37.6
46	Jacque Jones	ChC	533	9	36.2	42.4
47	Aubrey Huff	TB	454	8	36.6	42.4
48	Ronnie Belliard	Cle	544	9	36.7	43.6
49	Trot Nixon	Bos	381	7	36.8	43.7
50	Melky Cabrera	NYY	460	8	36.9	36.9

As you can see, almost all of 2006's inconsistent players have a history of inconsistency (2-3 yr %). This reinforces one of the tenets of the original premise I posted last week: Inconsistent players usually stay  inconsistent on a yearly basis. Thus these players are at risk to post consistent yearly results.

We know what to expect from Adam Everett on a year to year basis: basically lack luster fantasy output. However there are players such as Omar Vizquel, Aubry Huff, Jacques Jones, Kevin Mench, Marcus Giles, Geoff Jenkins, Randy Winn, and Juan Uribe, who have posted solid fantasy production at different points in their careers. Expecting them to repeat these results in two consecutive seasons is the risk that we seek to avoid, especially on draft day.

The reason I mention "two consecutive seasons": Fantasy GMs, for the most part have a "what have you done for me lately" methodology on Draft Day. Thus you do not want to be paying for the 2006 success especially when it's coming from a player whose production is sporadic.

Here's a short list of 7 players who had a career or semi career season in 2006 and also have a poor 3 year record of consistency: Brandon Inge, Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Yadier Molina, Pedro Feliz, AJ Pierzynski, Mike Lowell.

As I mentioned in the original article on Consistency Factor  both  injury and playing time risks are an additional factor to consider when evaluating players. As you thumb through the Consistency Factor indicator  on the Player Pages within the software, you'll get a better feel on which players are a safer play for you on draft day.

I do want to point out that rookie players should be given leeway, as they are just getting their feet wet and do have the potential to become consistent hitters. In the next segment of this series, we'll cover the youth movement (specifically those who have shown to be remarkably consistent early on.) A factor that bodes remarkably well for those looking to find un-touted value come draft day.

Have a great week,

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

 

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February 7th

Hi Guys,

Welcome to the start of our 2007 preseason newsletter. Over the next eight weeks we'll be discussing many of the intricacies that make fantasy baseball one of the most exciting rituals created by our species!

Specifically we are going to be talking about draft tools, draft strategies, and then later this month we're going to begin our daily preseason player projection notes.

After 5 months of software design/implementation and 2 months of player projection development (1,200+), I'm in high octane Starbucks double shot espresso mode! Let's get to today's topic:

Consistency Factor: an indicator designed to measure a player's Weekly and/or Daily quality production output using Fantistics Fantasy Production Indicator (FPI).

For anyone who has played in a Head to Head league, you probably already know the importance of Weekly Consistency in player production. Similar in nature to the popular indicator which measures a pitcher's Quality Starts (Bill James), Consistency Factor gives us an indicator of a batter's quality games or quality weekly output. As a benchmark we are comparing each hitter's daily/weekly production to the average production of the top 250 major league hitters. If a player's production for a particular day or week is above the group mean, then the player registers a quality game/week. These games/weeks are accumulated and the sum is the output we're calling Consistency Factor.

2006 Top 20 Consistent Weekly Producers (out of a possible 26)
	Player Name	Tm	Weekly 2006
1	David Ortiz	Bos	21
2	Ryan Howard	Phi	21
3	Jermaine Dye	CWS	20
4	Matt Holliday	Col	19
5	Vladimir Guerrero	LAA	18
6	Lance Berkman	Hou	18
7	Carlos Beltran	NYM	18
8	Hanley Ramirez	Fla	18
9	Miguel Cabrera	Fla	18
10	Carlos Guillen	Det	18
11	Derek Jeter	NYY	17
12	Bobby Abreu	NYY	17
13	Garrett Atkins	Col	17
14	Jim Thome	CWS	17
15	Grady Sizemore	Cle	17
16	Albert Pujols	StL	17
17	Mark Teixeira	Tex	17
18	Frank Thomas	Oak	17
19	Ray Durham	SF	16
20	Conor Jackson	Ari	16

The purpose of this indicator is to allow us to easily recognize those hitters who produce on a consistent basis and those that do not. For those who play in a weekly head to head format, the value of this indicator is obvious. In this segment, I am making a case for Consistency Factor as a relevant indicator for all fantasy or rotisserie league formats.

My premise here is simple: established players who do not produce quality output on a consistent basis are a risk to achieve similar success in the future.  Essentially we want players who produce consistently rather than in sporadic episodes. The reasoning is a derivative of the laws of probability, consistency is paramount to lowering our risk...the more observations the better.

Consistency by it own summation will cost us on draft day, as a consistently productive player will logically produce the best stats overall. Thus the real value of the Consistency Factor is to: 1. find or exclude the players who are not consistent in their production and 2. target young players who are showing consistent patterns. There are a distinct group of players that mask their yearly results based on a few hot weeks of production. As a fantasy GM in a non weekly or head to head format format, you might be saying: "SO WHAT...as long as he produces what is expected in his final year end statistics".

Here is the reasoning why I am suggesting that inconsistent players be avoided: Streaky players, for the most part, will never be consistent players. Thus placing faith in a player who only produces in small time frames exposes his fantasy GM to injury and playing time risks that are beyond the normal scope.

Injury Risk Consideration

Coco Crisp is a streaky player, coming into 2006 Crisp only produced quality weekly production in 11 of 26 games in 2005 and 12 of 26 games in 2004. Yet his production among his peers was within the top 1/3 after the 2005 season in typical 5x5 fantasy formats. In 2006 Crisp was injured, and one could make an argument that his injury time may have come at the expense of a hot streak. Again the premise is that consistent players will produce evenly throughout the season and will not be as adversely affected by missing playing time. Their opportunities for achievement are more spread out, which reduces their risk.

Playing Time Risk Consideration

A perfect example of a player who produces in streaks is Milwaukee's Geoff Jenkins. Coming into 2006, Jenkins was the model of inconsistency for a player who usually ended the season with decent yet unspectacular numbers. A 27 HR/90 RBI/.290 BA were numbers most typical of his year end production. Yet Jenkins only had 10 out of 26 weeks of quality production in 2004, and 11 out of 26 weeks in 2005. Most players in this final stats range usually have about 15 quality weeks of production. Jenkins was getting by with 40%+ less consistency. In 2006 however, Jenkins hit such a long streaks of non production, he was essentially benched before he ever had a chance to reach his typical hot spurt.

How to properly use Consistency Factor

These are only two examples highlighting the risk in taking established players who are not consistent in spacing their production evenly throughout the season. Again I want to point out that this is just a premise based on my understanding of human behavior patterns and the laws of probability. At the time of this article, I have not completed the extensive research required to support my premise. However in thumbing through a list of consistent players and inconsistent players over the last 3 years, in most cases inconsistent weekly players (despite masking some years with quality year end numbers) have had more instances of disappointing seasons. To use this tool properly we need to compare apples to apples. Comparing Albert Pujols' consistency factor to that of Geoff Jenkins doesn't aid us in any manner, as Pujols is a much more valuable player and this will not come as a surprise to anyone in your draft either.

As an example of comparing similar commodities, two players that have similarities in value heading into the 2007 draft are Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu. Here's what they did in 2006:

Abreu: 98 R/15 HR/107 RBI/.297 BA/30 SB

Wells: 91 R/32 HR/106 RBI/.303 BA/17 SB

Wells HR totals are offset almost evenly to Abreu's SB totals. I've seen these players valued as almost interchangeable and their ADP (Average Draft Position - included in our 2007 projections software) shows that Abreu on average is being taken 7 spots ahead of Wells. I believe this gap should be wider. Consider that Wells produced above average results in 12 of his 26 playing weeks last year (38 percentile), while Abreu produced above average production in 17 of his 26 weeks (83 percentile). Sure their production was similar last year, but Abreu has produced on a more consistent basis which is inline with his 3 year average (91 percentile), while Wells is only in the 52 percentile over the last 3 years. This inconsistency brings to light his 2005 and 2004 campaigns when he averaged .270 and 80 Runs scored (part of which can be blamed on his poor OBA these years).

My Bottom line: Without any other factors to consider, and based on these consistency indicators, I would much rather ride with Abreu this year than I would with Wells.

Over the next few weeks we're going to post some player lists relating to consistency factors which should allow us to better understand it's impact as a forecasting aid on draft day.

If you have yet to register with us for the 2007 season, consistency factors are now conveniently listed for each player in the Forecaster section of the projections screen (see below) and also are listed as a sort-able column as well.

Welcome Back,

Anthony A. Perri

Statistician and Publisher -Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com

Overview of the 2007 Fantasy Package

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