February 21st, 2006

Hi Guys,

Over the last 24 hours there has been a pickup in player news as many players are heading to their respective team facilities. Today is the voluntary reporting date for all position players. Aside form the notes listed below in this blog, we've started to post 75-80 other press news items in our member section. For the early risers, this section will begin updating at 4 am and be complete by 8 am with the daily news for the day.

I'm heading out to Cubs Camp in Mesa today to see the team's first semi-full squad practice, I hope to have some observations for tomorrows blog. Have a super Tuesday.  -Anthony

  Let's revisit the VAM drafting theory. Value Above Mean (also known as Value Based Drafting) is the position scarcity theory that we first published in 1999. We derived the strategy in the early 1990's based on successful empirical research. It is primarily used during an straight draft (non auction), although there is usefulness in knowing the relative strength of each player's position regardless of draft style. For your non auction draft, we recommend that you highly consider our VAM ranking on the right side of the projections software. 

In a nutshell, due to the scarcity factor each position that we have to fill on our fantasy roster does not have an equal valuation or footing. Some positions in the MLB universe contain an overwhelming majority of weak offensive players (catchers for instance), while other positions contain an overwhelming majority of solid offensive players (first baseman). None the less we must fill in this void with an eligible position player. Since the goal is to maximize the production from each position on our roster, we want to fill our rosters with the best player available at the time of our draft selection.  One of the ways and we believe the best way to do this is to quantify the value of each player verses the replacement level at his said position.

Their are 2 components that we use to quantify this:

1. What is the mean (average) value of the players at each of these required positions. This is based on the number of starters required in your league. Where does each player within that position measure compared to this benchmark.

and

2. What is the predictability of each position. Some positions are easier to predict based on the demands of the said position. As an example, due to the wear and tear factor relating to catchers, they often are a risk to even equal the 405 ABs that they average as a group (20% less than what other positions average). Based on our forecasting history we place a discount or premium to certain positions, namely Pitchers and Catchers at a discount and outfielders and First baseman at a premium.

Ultimately however there is a dichotomy at play. Many of the positions that are abundant in talent also have a high predictability in forecasting success. Thus there is a reason why Top Tier catchers and pitchers are rarely among the top 10 draft selections. None the less, there is a way to quantify the advantages and if you believe in the laws of probability then you understand the advantage of playing the percentages when it's spread over your entire roster.

3 YR Average Predictability

(based on historicals)

 

Following Season Performance within

Position 15% 25% 35%
C 32% 43% 53%
1B 62% 75% 87%
2B 33% 52% 65%
SS 40% 55% 68%
3B 38% 53% 67%
OF 49% 63% 75%
Starting P 30% 41% 47%
Relief P 37% 48% 55%

As you can see from the chart above: Less than half (50%) within the universe of MLB Catchers, Starting Pitchers and Relief Pitchers are able to attain performance within 25% of their previous season's results.

VAM can be found on the right side of the Top 100 VAM listing and the right hand side of the cheatsheets. If you use the software during your draft, VAM can recalculate based on the new position scarcity developing live during your draft.

For those who play in an auction draft, please visit this link for our latest evaluation Tool: Expected Auction Value$ (EAV).

National League

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that 23-year-old rookie RHP Anthony Lerew was “the star of the day” according to manager Bobby Cox, vaulting him into consideration for the Braves closer role, which is currently tenuously held by RHP Chris Reitsma. Lerew is a big strong kid (6'3" 220lb), who has become a power pitcher thanks to a fastball that tops out in the mid nineties. His fastball is particularly effective as it has late movement, however his strength is also his weakness as he has yet to control the movement which has led to a higher than desired walk rate. Between AA and AAA, his K/Inn ratio last year was .79, which is typically less than desirable for a closer (1.00+ is optimal). He's a work in progress as he's been a starter through his entire minor league experience. Despite Reitsma's shortcomings as a closer, barring a collapse, Lerew is going to need a phenomenal spring to surpass him.

Among position players, the Mets have only two unsettled spots. Second base is one, and right field is the other. For the latter, Victor Diaz and Xavier Nady - who both reported to camp Sunday - are the two primary candidates, neither of whom has ever been a full-time everyday player over the course of a major league season. I doubt this will be a platoon situation as the Mets have high aspirations for Nady. However do consider that Nady only hit .223 against Righties (.323) in 2005 (which is very similar to his career totals). Look for Diaz to spell Nady when they face tough right handed pitching. The end result will likely be a line that looks like this at the end of the 2006 season: 20HR /67RBI /.274AVG

 Manager Charlie Manuel said he plans to use Tomas Perez, Abraham Nunez, Alex S. Gonzalez and Matt Kata in the outfield during Spring Training, even though all have marginal experience at the position. RHP Chris Booker, vying to make the Phillies as a middle reliever, has been slowed by a left knee injury. The righty must remain on the Phillies' 25-man roster all season or be offered back to the Nationals, his original club. 

 Who fills the roles of numbers three, four and five starters may not be decided until well into March, if not early April. The competition essentially is a scramble among five pitchers, all right-handers -- Tony Armas Jr., Ryan Drese, Brian Lawrence, Ramon Ortiz and Jon Rauch -- with one of the odd men out likely headed to the bullpen as the long reliever.

 With the Cubs unable to find a new team for 2B Todd Walker, he'll compete for playing time with Jerry Hairston and Neifi Perez. Walker said it was his understanding that when the Cubs picked up his $2.5 million option, the starting job was his. That was not the case. Walker will see a majority of the playing time, however Perez and Hairston are sure to bite into it. At this point your best staying away from this situation on draft day.

While Reds manager Jerry Narron would love to have RHP Paul Wilson ready to go by April 9 - the first day the Reds need a fifth starter - he wants to avoid a timetable to get Wilson there. "I'm a little afraid of a timetable," Narron said. "I don't think that's fair. No one knows how long it takes to come back from shoulder surgery. I don't want him to push it because of a timetable."

Entering spring training, LHP Wandy Rodriguez and RHP Ezequiel Astacio have the inside track on the final two spots in the rotation, but there will be plenty of competition. Taylor Buchholz and Fernando Nieve, both right-handers who have never pitched in the majors, are expected to push Rodriguez and Astacio. LHP Carlos Hernandez will be in the mix yet again.

Where the 2005 bullpen was marked by questions, the '06 version seems to be swimming in options. The current blueprint calls for the innings in front of closer Derrick Turnbow to go to Dan Kolb, who is back after a lost season in Atlanta, and RHP Matt Wise, who used his devastating changeup to hold hitters to a .160 average. Other candidates include hard-throwing RHP Kane Davis and lefty Jorge De La Rosa, who are out of minor-league options, as well as Jose Capellan, Justin Lehr, lefty Dana Eveland, and others.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports LHP Paul Maholm missed his scheduled throwing session because of a strained hamstring. Manager Jim Tracy described Maholm's status as day to day. "He had a little extra jump in his delivery," Tracy said. "This was precautionary."

Several players took batting practice on Monday thrown by Coach Dave McKay. In addition to 3B Scott Rolen, they included Albert Pujols, Rick Ankiel, Larry Bigbie, Brian Daubach and Chris Duncan, son of pitching coach Dave Duncan, who hit some long home runs during his session. "Chris should be a bona fide productive major leaguer," La Russa said. "I'm excited about what kind of player he can be.

A switch-hitter, 2B Orlando Hudson probably will bat second in the order behind SS Craig Counsell, who moves over from second base to accommodate his new double-play partner.

Outfielder Choo Freeman has reached a point of no return in his Colorado Rockies career. "He knows it's time to perform or go to the 7-Eleven," outfield coach Dave Collins said. " . . . The opportunity is here."

Shortstop Rafael Furcal, who is recovering from minor knee surgery, hit off a tee for the first time.

After a trying season with the New York Mets in which he was pushed out of his natural position by Carlos Beltran and suffered a horrific face injury, CF Mike Cameron is healthy, happy, and back home in center field with the Padres.

Barry Bonds, who turns 42 in July, did not appear at the club's training facility Monday, when position players were due to report. But GM Brian Sabean said Bonds' agent, Jeff Borris, told him on Friday that Bonds would arrive at least a day late to attend to personal matters.

The Marlins aren't sure whether Josh Willingham can catch full time or part time. They do think he can hit, which is why manager Joe Girardi believes he'll be somewhere in the lineup come Opening Day. If it isn't behind the plate it will likely be left field. Free agent acquisition Miguel Olivo appears well positioned for the everyday job, but Willingham will continue donning the gear as he did during Monday's initial workout for pitchers and catchers. We have high aspirations for Willingham who is currently listed very high among his peer group (catchers). Willingham ate up AAA pitching last year in Albuquerque with 19 HRs 56 RBIs, and 17 additional EBH in only 219 ABs. He played 8 games last year at catcher, and he'll likely be a tremendous value if you can slot him there to start out the season.

American League

 The Orioles will open their 2006 season six weeks from now, and their All-Star 2B Brian Roberts remains optimistic that he will join his teammates if not on April 3, then shortly thereafter. Which Brian Roberts they'll get is completely a guessing game. Roberts hit 13 HRs along with a .365 Batting Average in the first half of 2005, in the second half Roberts hit 5 HRs and only batted .264. The first half was an obviously an anomaly, and the second half was injury ridden. A prudent approach would be to expect something in-between.

 After throwing an impressive bullpen session Saturday that provided indications of an inevitable return to old form, RHP Curt Schilling was forced to have an abbreviated, indoor workout due to a minor case of a cold or flu, which is running throughout his family. It is not expected to set Schilling’s work schedule back. Keith Foulke’s bid to rebound from an awful 2005 season got off to an encouraging start yesterday when the Red Sox closer threw off a bullpen mound for the first time with power and ease.  At 38, his days of a sub 3.00 ERA and 1.05 WHIP are likely well behind him. However if he's back to full health, he is still a dominant pitcher who could bevel a sub 4 ERA along with a rigid 1.20 WHIP. 16-18 Wins in a Red Sox uniform are well within his potential.

World Baseball Classic gossip and politics dominated Yankee news yesterday. Ozzie blasts A-Rod...A-Rod blames MLB for his vacillating...Ozzie apologizes...A-Rod’s wife winning debate with mother-in-law decides A-Rod’s WBC team...A-Rod accepts Ozzie’s apology...Matsui snubs Japan out of Yankee loyalty...Torre & George hope Wang doesn’t participate...blah, blah, blah. If you are dying for details, just look at any New York area newspaper.

 After reporting Monday, Aubrey Huff met with Joe Maddon for the first time - a meeting that made a positive impression on the Rays' manager. Among the topics talked about was where Huff likely will play, a sore spot for Huff - who has split time between four positions. “We're going to give him primary work at third base, but he's also going to work at first base and right field," Maddon said. "His comment was, 'I'll do what's best for the team.' What else could I ask for?"

 Pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, who was also RHP A.J. Burnett's coach with the Florida Marlins in 2002-03, is the reason Burnett chose the Jays over St. Louis and Baltimore. Arnsberg is the reason Burnett believes he will win 16 to 20 games, even though his career high is 12. And..."Hope rises each spring like sap in the trees. That's part of baseball, that's one of the greatest things about the game. You have the annual rebirth no matter how disastrous the previous year was."  We are projecting 17 Wins for Burnett this season. When you consider his performance in 2005, we calculate 4 less wins than deserved for Burnett which would have made him a 16 game winner.

 GM Kenny Williams is convinced that one day RHP Brandon McCarthy will go straight to the top of the White Sox starting rotation. But for now, he’s the odd man out of an impressive group of starters featuring Mark Buehrle, Jose Contreras, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland and Javier Vazquez. “That tells you something right there,” Buehrle said. “(McCarthy) is good enough to start for any team out there, but we’ve got a lot of good starters here.” McCarthy probably will be called upon to start for the White Sox sooner than later. Although no official decision has been made, manager Ozzie Guillen has been talking about giving some of his starters some rest during the season. McCarthy will get a shot this year as many of the names in this rotation have an injury history.

Manager Eric Wedge on Monday named LHP C.C. Sabathia as the Indians' Opening Day starter for the fourth season in a row. Wedge thinks that CF Jason Michaels will be an ideal second batter behind Grady Sizemore. “He is very good situationally,'' Wedge said. “He uses the whole field, works the count, and he's hit second before. He's well-suited to that job.''

 Manager Jim Leyland won't handicap the competition for the fifth starter. He doesn't like to extol one candidate and thereby put down others. RHP Justin Verlander's prime competitors appear to include fellow young hurlers Joel Zumaya, also a farm-system product, and Roman Colon, the right-hander who came from Atlanta last year in the Kyle Farnsworth trade.

 According to the Kansas City Star, LHP Jeremy Affeldt is politicking to reclaim a role in the Royals’ rotation after an extended tour of bullpen duty. Matters came to a head last fall in a sit-down session with GM Allard Baird. “I looked him in the eye,” Affeldt recalled, and said: ‘If you’re not going to close with me, then start me again, because I left that starting role to close.’ He said he’d think about it.”

 The Saint Paul Pioneer Press reports that LHP Francisco Liriano could have a roster spot in the World Baseball Classic. Liriano said Monday that he was told he had been added to the provisional roster for his native Dominican Republic, and he expects to play next month in the inaugural WBC.

Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar had their third bullpen sessions of the spring. While Colon continues to show progress, Escobar's session impressed Angels’ officials. The Angels have learned, after talking with the coaching staff of the Dominican Republic team that Colon would not start until the squad's second game of the WBC on March 9.

RHP Rich Harden threw off the mound for the first time since pitchers and catchers reported. It was his third session off the mound in Arizona but the first in public view since he had surgery to repair his left labrum shortly after the season. We're going to back off our projection on Harden until we can see him this spring. Expecting anything more than 170 innings from him at this point is not realistic.

Position players officially join the mix at the Mariners' training camp this morning, and Willie Bloomquist, Jose Lopez and Fernando Vina will compete for the starting job at second base over the next month.

The Fort-Worth Star-Telegram reports that the number 4 slot in the Rangers rotation has already been assigned to 6-foot-8, 225 pound RHP Kameron Loe. Rangers pitching coach Mark Connor said. "He showed us last year at the end of the year what he could do. We feel really good about having him in that spot.” Few clubs have two catchers who are capable of being starters as the Rangers do in Rod Barajas and Gerald Laird. The Rangers like the depth they have at the position. Make no mistake, though. The starting job belongs to Barajas.

 

 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. Anthony  worked as a Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. He can be seen hanging around the MLB spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.


 
   
   
   
   
   
 

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