First Pitch - "Value Picks" - April 30, 2008
Welcome to Fantasy Week 5's installment of Value Picks. As you may have realized by now, we have focused one "First Pitch" per week on identifying players on the wires that could potentially add some value to your fantasy squad. Sometimes, the impact is immediate and other times, they may require some patience. These aren't household names (and if they are, they are so old that they have been through the full fantasy cycle and are now considered over-the-hill).
Below is this week's list with a brief rationale per player. Good luck!
1) Shelley Duncan (1B/OF - New York Yankees) - Shelley Duncan is hardly an obscure name, but I think the writing is on the wall that he'll get more playing time in the immediate future. Let's take a look at the state of the Yankees lineup. With A-Rod and Jorge Posada on the DL, the Yankees lose a significant amount of power and now rely on guys like Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Hideki Matsuifor the long-ball. With Giambi hitting .171 and Bobby Abreu's big power days over, I believe you will see Duncan's name in the lineup more frequently. In 74 AB last season, Shelley posted a 0.66 FPI, averaged a HR/AB of 10.6, and an OPS of .883. Don't go crazy running out to the wires to grab Duncan in your AL-only leagues right now, but he certainly belongs on the watch-list, especially if the Yanks lose any more power out of their lineup.
2) Jair Jurrjens (SP - Atlanta Braves) - Jair Jurrjens is another NL pitcher who is not completely obscure, but has low ownership rates (about 25%) and has been relegated to pitch-and-ditch status in most mixed leagues. If you're thinking far enough ahead (and that's the main intent of this column), you need to consider Jurrjens as a great value for Fantasy Week 6. First, the obvious match-up benefits that Jurrjens aces: Monday 5/6 against the Padres in Atlanta and Sunday 5/11 against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. The Padres currently lead MLB with team K's of 221 and the Pirates rank 6th in the NL with 182. The Padres also rank last in team OBP with .296 (16th place out of 16 teams) and the Pirates rank 12th with .312. Not exactly the 1927 Yankees as an opponent (FYI - they had a team OBP of .381). Now, onto Jurrjens' recent performances. He has 3 consecutive quality starts and is posting a 2008 ERA of 3.45, 1.21 WHIP, and a solid K/9 of 7.2. He also posts a GB/FB of 2.13 with 49 ground ball outs and just 23 fly balls. That's an impressive ratio that has kept his HR/9 at just 0.29 (only 1 HR allowed to Russel Martin a few weeks ago). He's likely long-gone in NL-only leagues, but I think he's a great mixed league value pick at this moment, especially with favorable match-ups next week.
3) Jorge Cantu (3B - Florida Marlins) - Here's a name that has been talked about in fantasy circles for a few years (especially when he was with Tampa Bay), but he's having a quiet season in Florida with decent production out of the 3B spot this season. Taking a walk down memory lane: in 2005 with Tampa Bay, Cantu posted a 0.60 FPI out of the 2B position with a .286 average, .805 OPS, 28 HR, 117 RBI, a HR/AB of 21.4, and 69 extra-base hits out of a total of 171. Since then, he has struggled with injuries and has floated around the league, landing with Cincinnati briefly before settling in Florida. This season, he's hitting .309 with a 0.74 FPI, .873 OPS, 3 HR, 10 RBI, and 13 extra-base hits out of 29. I definitely don't think he will end the season in the 0.70+ FPI echelon, but I will gladly exchange a drop in average for an increase in HR. In fact, I expect a correction in average in the near future with a .262 BHIP% compared to his .309 average for a difference of 47 points that should yield an average drop at some point. He's not exactly playing in a homer-friendly ballpark either (Dolphin Stadium ranked 15th out of 30 in 2007 in HRs), but I still think he has the potential to hit 20+ if he's in the lineup everyday and stays healthy. NL-only leaguers should definitely take a chance on Cantu and mixed leaguers should keep him on a watch list for when he travels to smaller parks or has favorable matchups against pitchers with high rates of HR/9.
4) Jonathan Sanchez (SP - San Francisco Giants)- Jonathan Sanchez has been floating around our news and player
clippings for a the last few weeks, yet his ownership in many popular league formats remains lower than it should. First, the stats: Sanchez has a 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 11.6 K/9 (with two separate outings of 10 K's in his first 5 starts), K/BB of 3.54, and a HR/9 < 1.0. One concern that raises flags of him taking that next leap of fantasy value is his 0.77 GB/FB ratio, but pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark certainly helps to cancel out some of that effect. In fact, AT&T Park ranked 24th out of 30 ballparks last year in homeruns allowed Sanchez becomes a great value pick now, especially since he is a 2-start pitcher next week against the Pirates in Pittsburgh (good matchup there) and against the Phillies in San Francisco.
5) Mike Cameron (OF - Milwaukee Brewers) - Mike Cameron returned to the Brewers lineup last night and definitely looked good, going 3-for-5 on his return from the off-season suspension. It will be interesting to see how the performance enhancing drug issue will effect Cameron's play (either physically or mentally), but one thing's for sure - its impossible to predict. The information that we do have shows that Cameron is still only owned in less than 20% of all leagues despite the likelihood of him being the everyday CF in a season where the free agent wire for outfielders is relatively weak. Cameron has had a ton of seasons playing in non-HR friendly ballparks and is finally in a lineup and a ballpark where he will get a chance to flex some muscle (if he still has any left - yes, it was a cheap shot). In San Diego, where homeruns go to die, Cameron hit back-to-back seasons of 20+ HR and averaged a HR/AB of about 26.0 in over 1,100 AB as a Padre. The 35-year-old Cameron also stole 25 bases in 2006 and 18 in 2007, adding another speed component to his fantasy value that deserves some consideration. Have an injured OF? Cameron will be a nice fill-in at a cheap price.
6) Dana Eveland (SP - Oakland A's) - Dana Eveland's ownership % has been steadily rising over the last few weeks as he continues to post solid outings for the Athletics. There have been some signs of struggle recently, but not enough to make fantasy owners drop him (yet). His first two outings of the season were both quality starts and he has since posted 3 outings of non-QS starts. But each of his trips to the mound have resulted with him leaving the game with 3 ER or less under his belt. His K/9 and K/BB rates are decent at 6.5 and 1.75. His GB/FB hovers around an even 1.0 and he has only given up one dinger for a HR/9 of 0.31. His immediate short-term value continues to rise despite some recent alarm bells. He becomes a favorable two-start pitcher against Baltimore (in Oakland) and Texas (on the road) in fantasy week 5.
