February 22nd, 2006

The Spring Rite of Passage

The first sign of spring for the baseball enthusiast is the artistic sound of a baseball meeting a wooden bat. If you ever have the opportunity to go out to a spring site (either in Florida or Arizona) in late February, I highly recommend the experience. For the folks that live in the northern portion of the country, it’s a warming experience and should be considered as a rite of passage into spring.

 

Yesterday I visited the Cubs at their facility in Mesa, Arizona. For those who have never been to a spring practice, here are the things that immediately strike you:

 

  1. Every player participates in practice, just like in little league; there are no players who receive special status.
  2. All the players have a serious look on their face; from Greg Maddux to the non roster invitee (The only difference is Maddux is probably thinking about Golf later in the day, while the non roster is working on the stomach butterflies.)
  3. The players shift from station to station (different fields) conducting as many 15 minute drills as possible within the days practice. An activity which keeps the onlookers scrambling as well.
  4. The players are organized by position. The groups that form are 1. Pitchers & catchers, 2. Infielders and 3. Outfielders. Each of these groups practice on a different field.
  5. After a drill is complete, every player fetches loose balls and drops them in a bucket before moving to the next drill station. No million dollar contract can supercede this regiment.
  6. None of the onlookers dare ask the players for anything (no autographs, balls, etc…), these guys are at work.

 

When I visit a spring facility my primary focus is on the pitching staff as this is always the most volatile component of a baseball team and ultimately a fantasy team.

 

Here are some player observations and comments

  • Mark Prior – For the first time in recent memory, Prior comes into camp healthy. The Achilles injury that plagued him in 2004 and the start of 2005 is no longer an issue. I also noticed that Prior has lost weight since the last time I saw him, which is smart business for those with an Achilles malady. I asked him at the conclusion of practice how his arm felt and he responded “it feels great”. Despite the health issues over the last 2 years, Prior has maintained one of the best K/Inning ratios of any starter over the last 3 years (1.15). At only 26, Prior still has a world of talent, and could easily once again become the best pitcher in baseball.
  • Kerry Wood – Is not participating in the drills per se, as he did not throw the ball in any fashion today. This really comes as no surprise as the Cubs have said they don’t expect Wood to be ready by the start of the season. Although there was speculation that Wood would become the team’s closer, one of the coaches told me that Wood is the one who wanted no part of that plan. According to what I’ve read, Wood expects to once again be himself after he clears this hurdle. Wood has not exceeded 140 innings since 2003.
  • Greg Maddux – The master is still the master. He doesn’t look like your typical ball player…but he never has. Physically he looks identical to when I saw him last year at this time. There is no hiding the fact that Maddux is on the inevitable downward spiral in his career. Interestingly there is a clear trend developing in Greg’s numbers over the last 3 seasons. Take a look at his first half WHIP numbers from 2002-2005 (1.28, 1.33, 1.33) verses his second half WHIPs of (1.08, 1.05, 1.14). Clearly Maddux needs to somehow figure out whether his slow starts are related to his preseason prep or it’s a “warm weather issue”. Either way, if Maddux can get off to a fast start we’re talking about a -1.00 shift in ERA.
  • Carlos Zambrano – Zambrano appears to have gained a few more pounds (and who of us hasn’t this winter?). Despite this, he has clearly stated his intention to win a Cy Young award this season. He did participate fully in all drills today, which is a sign of health early in camps. Zambrano has pitched over 210 innings each of the last 3 seasons, and there is no reason to believe that he won’t be an innings monster again this season.
  • Jerome Williams - Williams is almost guaranteed a starting role as Kerry Wood is not expected to start the season in the rotation, leaving Williams and Rusch as the 4th and 5th starters. Williams once a prized prospect, is looking to bounce back from what was expected to be coming out season (which instead was marred by the illness and later death of his father). I like Williams, but he’s a finesse pitcher and finesse pitchers are rarely successful in their youth. Opponents put the ball in play at a fairly high rate thanks to a non impressive K/Inning ratio (.62). Until Williams can master the finer points of pitching, he’ll be a little more than a .500 pitcher. He’ll be well served in watching and staying close to Maddux this spring.
  • Wade Miller – I did not see Wade Miller today, either because he wasn’t out there or I didn’t recognize him (some players were wearing over shirts without jersey numbers). Miller, like Wood, is a Wild Card coming off of shoulder surgery and doesn’t expect to be part of the team until May or June. Miller was once a perennial 15 game winner (2001 – 2003) and could be an asset to the team in the latter months of the season. Not a fantasy option on draft day however.

 

Other Observations:

 

  • Juan Pierre looks great in a Cubs uniform, but it’s not the color or fit of the uniform that leads me to believe that he’ll have a solid fantasy season. One of the statistical indicators that lends itself to my expectation is Juan’s Day/Night Splits. For whatever reason, Pierre is a much more valuable player during the day. Consider that his 3 year Day/Night split for OBP is .395 verses .338. Although the Cubs no longer play day games exclusively, they still play more day games than any other team in the majors. I believe Pierre will be the best thing will happened to the Cubs in 2006, and I see him having a career season.

  • Derrek Lee looked as determined as any player I’ve ever seen on the official opening day of Camp. Lee looked quite perturbed when he only blasted 3 of 10 pitches out of Fitch Park’s North East field (which is as big as or bigger than most Major league parks). There is no doubt that Lee will be hard pressed to replicate the success of his 2005 campaign. His .379 1st half batting average was an anomaly and it certainly buoyed his year end .335 BA. However the power numbers in the first half vs his second half were comparable (23 HRs vs 23 HRs) and much can be attributed to his patience at the plate. His strikeout rate has improved consistently over the last 4 years. Consider that in 2002 he was striking out in 24.2% of his plate appearances, a percentage that he has chiseled down to a respectable 16.1%. Again I don’t expect the career season he posted in 2005, but I do expect him to remain one of the top offensive players in the game. Oh, did I mention contract year?

When I came up from the field and sat down in the bleachers, it was an opportunity to experience something which is sometimes lost on the field of play….Chatter among the baseball diehards. The consensus among the group of Cubbie old timers, a traveling group of snowbirds that make the annual pilgrimage to Mesa, was that 2B Todd Walker would get traded before the season starts. Is Jerry Hairston ready to handle second base on a full time basis? At 29, it’s now or never and if Hairston has a strong spring, Walker could in fact be history.

 

For 93 year old Richard (last name unknown), the spring practice was an opportunity to show off his new girlfriend and to finally shake off any remaining traces of winter. Richard looked at me before I left and said “I really like what I see here”. Yep, it’s a wonderful thing...Baseball is in full bloom!   -Anthony

 

 

National League

With the wind blowing in Tuesday, manager Bobby Cox said he saw only one ball hit over the fence during batting practice. That was by C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the Braves' top-rated prospect. "He's as good looking a young hitter as has ever walked through here," Cox said of the 20-year-old switch-hitting slugger, who will start the season in Class AA. Quite an endorsement from a manager who is pretty rigid on Rookie development. Saltalamacchia may be the fantasy catcher that most of us have been clamoring for since the height of Mike Piazza's career. Unless you play in a keeper league, there is no reason to draft Jarrod in 2006 as McCann, a prospect in his own right, is expected to hold down the fort.

Marlins' LHP Scott Olsen, who is competing for a rotation spot, is returning from elbow inflammation that sidelined him the second half of last season. On Tuesday, Olsen felt great throwing 35 pitches to catcher Miguel Olivo. Olsen mixed in some changeups, a key pitch for him to develop. And he threw a couple of sliders without feeling any discomfort. Here's what our Aaron Gleeman said about Olsen in 2005:

Florida’s sixth-round pick out of an Illinois high school back in the 2002 draft, Scott Olsen has established himself as one of the most underrated pitching prospects around over the last three seasons. After pitching in the Gulf Coast (rookie) League after signing in 2002, Olsen posted a 2.81 ERA and 129-to-59 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 128.1 innings at low Single-A Greensboro in 2003, and then had a 2.97 ERA and 158-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio at high Single-A Jupiter last season. He began this season at Double-A Carolina and continued to impress, going 6-4 with a 3.92 ERA in 14 starts, with a 94-to-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio and just 75 hits allowed in 80.1 innings. His ERA at Double-A this season is a little higher than you’d like to see, but take a look at how Olsen’s strikeout rate has improved as he’s gone up the minor-league ladder 10.53 K/9 in 2005. That’s a pretty rare pattern and very encouraging.  A rare hard-throwing southpaw, the 6’4” Olsen works in the low-90s and has also improved his control while boosting his strikeout totals. The combination of increased strikeouts and decreased walks for a young pitching prospect coming up through the minor leagues is pretty amazing, and speaks very well of Olsen’s future.  Olsen has a very bright future.  At the very least, he should be a full-time member of Florida’s rotation at some point during the 2006 season. Gleeman Long-Term Fantasy Grade: B

Manager Willie Randolph has yet to reveal where in the order CF Carlos Beltran will hit, but the most logical spots seem to be second or third, where he would be protected by either David Wright or Carlos Delgado. Randolph sounds confident that Beltran will bounce back, and with that kind of firepower around him, he really will have no excuses. We're counting on a comeback season for Beltran as well. Unless Betran was part of the steroid crowd that infiltrated the game, there is no reason to believe that he won't make a comeback at the peak age of 28. His hamstring injury had a lot to due with his lack of production last year, and if he keeps it healthy he should be a steal on draft day. We are projecting a 22/92/.288 season with 32 stolen bases.

LHP Paul Maholm returned to the mound on Tuesday after sitting out the previous day due to a slight hamstring pull. Maholm is considered a top prospect, however I feel that he's being pushed through the system too quickly. When I look at his minor league numbers, I see a pitcher who only has a total of 117 innings in AA and AAA combined. Contained in that stint is a 3.30 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a .82 K/Inning ratio. All of these numbers are solid, and impressive for a 23 year old. However they are not dominating. Neither is his fastball which tops out in the high 80s. I believe he has a very bright future, but in 2006 I don't see him as anything more than a middle of the road pitcher who'll have some stellar performances followed by a few blowups.

RHP Brian Lawrence played catch yesterday but was unable to pitch his scheduled bullpen session and said he's probably a few days from being ready to resume full activities. "Hopefully, I'll be able to extend it out tomorrow playing catch and then get on the field the day after that," he said. "I'm just a little slow getting into it, but it'll be there."

RHP Mark Prior spent a few minutes Tuesday morning responding to an Internet report that his shoulder is hurting and that he looks “weak and sick.” Prior proved that he hasn’t lost his sense of humor. “It’s a process to get ready for the season,” he said. “It’s not just show up and go to work. I wish it was that easy, but it’s not. I feel good. My body feels good. I don’t feel sick and weak. I don’t tan well.”

Although manager Jerry Narron won't anoint him the closer, he sees in RHP Todd Coffey what he wants in a closer. "Todd Coffey throws strikes and doesn't beat himself," he said. "If you're going to beat him, you have to do it yourself." Despite the positive vibes, Coffey says, "Nobody has told me a thing and I'm here as if I'm trying to win the 25th spot on the roster." Statistically I don't see how Jerry Narron makes this comment, realistically I do see the dire straits the team's relief corp is in. He has had a rough go of it at both the AAA and majors level where he's posted a 5.20+ ERA and 4.50+ ERA respectively. At times prior to these experiences at the upper levels, he's come close to posting a 1 to 1 K/Inning ratio. However this is certainly a work in progress, and the Reds may be forced to start the season with David Weathers as their closer. Ryan Wagner is still in the mix, however he must overcome the butterflies and step up to be considered.

According to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, two sources said the contract signed by closer Derrick Turnbow this week will pay him $488,000, a significant raise from his 2005 salary of $322,000. "I had heard the Brewers take care of their one to three-year guys," Turnbow said. "Now, I see what they mean." GM Doug Melvin said the Brewers had a formula for rewarding non-arbitration-eligible players, a point system that is based on performance. "I think our system is very fair," Melvin said. "If guys earn it, they should be rewarded."

Things got easier for RHP Byung-Hyun Kim when the Rockies claimed Sunny Kim off waivers from Washington on Aug. 7, making the Kims just the second pair of Korean teammates in major-league history. "It's a good thing, not just for B.K., but for me, too," said Sunny Kim, whose English is more advanced than his buddy's. "I have never pitched as good or was happier than when I pitched for Colorado last year." The Kims are a non fantasy consideration in Colorado.

Although he has played more major-league games in left field, Ryan Klesko considers first base the position where he feels most comfortable. Klesko is coming off a season in which he hit .270 and knocked 14 home runs before the All-Star break, then broke down afterward, finishing with only 18 homers (a total that led the team) and a career-worst .248 average. The culprit was a neck injury that he suffered diving for a fly ball in late July and that a winter of rest and acupuncture sessions were unable to heal completely. "I felt good in the cage today," Klesko said. "It should be all right, but it just doesn't disappear.”

RHP Kevin Correia reported that his first bullpen session went well, and he felt no ill effects of a minor back injury.

According to the North County Times, "Bochy said he talked to Mike Cameron on Tuesday about different lineup permutations involving his new center fielder. "I told him we'll mix it up this spring," Bochy said. "He may hit at the top of the order, at No. 2, then some at No. 6 and No. 7. I don't think he's the prototypical No. 2 hitter, but he's not bad at it, either." Cameron strikes out too often to be considered ideal in that spot, but he also walks frequently and could combine with leadoff hitter Dave Roberts to bring excellent speed to the top of the Padres' order. New York Mets manager Willie Randolph used Cameron chiefly in the No. 2 hole last season, although he occupied every position in the lineup (even ninth) at least once during his two years in New York. ... Bochy also listed Cameron as a candidate to lead off when Roberts doesn't play. Khalil Greene, Eric Young and whoever wins the second base job between Mark Bellhorn and Josh Barfield are also leadoff possibilities."

Dodgers’ owners Frank and Jamie McCourt will announce a two-year contract extension for Hall of Fame broadcaster Vin Scully at a press conference set for this afternoon at Dodger Stadium. He will be entering his 57th consecutive season with the franchise. According to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, Scully's tenure with the Dodgers is believed to be the longest of any broadcaster in sports history with one team. If you are using a PC with Real Player installed and are in an appropriate location to play a sound-byte … here is a spine-tingling clip of one of the great moments in the history of The Game, as called by Mr. Scully.

American League

Manny Ramirez was given permission by the Red Sox to report to spring training on March 1, six days after the team’s first full-squad workout and one day after MLB’s mandatory reporting date. “Manny is in Florida completing an extensive training regimen and is prepared to have an exceptional season,” said a joint statement from Ramirez and the team that was released by the Red Sox on Tuesday. Manny being Manny....

Manager Joe Maddon said he has been particularly pleased with his first looks at LHP Scott Kazmir. "When I was with the Angels we never saw him pitch against us," Maddon said of the 22-year-old left-hander. "I just love the way he goes about his business. I love the way the ball comes out of his hand. I didn't know he's as strong as he is.” If you take a look at Kasmir's line from 2005, it doesn't appear very impressive 10 Wins, 1.46 WHIP, 3.77 ERA. However if you look at his development in the second half, you'll see a young stud in the making (7 Wins, 3.16 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.06 K/Inning ratio). At only 22, Kazmir is a solid sleeper pick in any draft format. There is a good chance that he'll throw up quality starts in 60-65% of his starts this year.

Blue Jays LHP Ted Lilly is ahead of schedule from the previous two springs when he showed up with injuries that put him behind the other pitchers. Last year, it was a shoulder injury sustained after getting a little overzealous in his winter workouts. In 2004, it was a wrist that he injured trying to move a television set. Lilly made sure he didn't put himself in harm's way again this past winter. "I definitely was more conscious of making sure I didn't take any chances or do something that would set me back," he said. "I think the last two springs were kind of flukish. It was a few weird things and bad timing." Lilly has been on the cusp of stardom since the 2002 season, however he has yet to fulfill his expectations. The problem with Lilly is his inconsistency from game to game. Continually throughout his career he has failed to string together quality starts. Only worth a very late round flyer if you're willing to gamble that this will be the season he puts it all together.

RHP Brandon McCarthy had thoughts of tacking on a fourth pitch to his repertoire this spring. The 22-year-old already features the basic fastball and curve, along with what some insiders consider one of the best changeups in the American League -- even with less than one year of Major League experience. Instead of adding the cutter, McCarthy said that he plans to develop a two-seam fastball.

DH Erubiel Durazo signed a minor league contract with the Rangers that issued no promises other than an invitation to big-league spring training. He is expected to compete for DH at-bats with David Dellucci and Phil Nevin. Durazo ranked fifth among AL hitters in average (.321) and was seventh in on-base percentage (.396) in 2004.

As the Chicago Sun-Times reports, "Guillen announced in the winter that he would experiment with dropping Iguchi to the No. 6 or 7 spot, with shortstop Juan Uribe moving into Iguchi's spot. That experiment starts next week, when the defending World Series champions begin Cactus League play. ... The key in this experiment will be instilling some discipline into the free-swinging Uribe. He is expected to arrive in camp a day late because of visa problems, but Guillen said he should be in before the weekend. ... Iguchi, who arrived in camp Tuesday, said there was pressure on him to play for Japan in next month's World Baseball Classic, but he had his reasons for skipping it."

Aaron Boone is the Tribe's incumbent at third base and nobody expects 22-year-old Andy Marte to ease him out of a job this season. Marte is expected to begin the year at Triple-A Buffalo but possibly make his Indians debut at some point before the schedule plays out. Marte is considered by most professional observers to be a can't-miss hitter, who eventually will make his mark by amassing home runs. That said, he also is known to have a hole in his swing, a weakness for flailing at pitches that miss the outside of the plate. Last year at Richmond, his first in Triple-A, Marte batted .275 with 20 homers and 74 RBI in 389 at-bats.

Sensing the media was going to make an issue out of OF Gary Sheffield's contract expiring when a three-year, $39 million deal expires in October, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman made a pre-emptive strike to mollify Sheffield. Cashman met Sheffield in the trainer's room and surprised him. "They brought me in and told me they were probably going to pick the option up," Sheffield said after taking a physical at Legends Field. Asked if yesterday's talk with Cashman likely will keep him from testing the free agent market, Sheffield said, "I only want to play in one place and that still remains the same. I don't want to play for nobody else but the Yankees."

The Royals plan to enter their Cactus League schedule with eight starters initially aligned in four pairs for work every fourth day. “Once our starters get to five innings,” pitching coach Bob McClure said, “they’ll start to separate. Right now, they’ll piggyback each other.” Manager Buddy Bell said he’d like to have a rotation determined — “if we can” — with roughly two weeks remaining in camp.

Jeff Mathis is not one to shy from a challenge, so don't expect the Angels' rookie catcher to wilt under the pressure of replacing a two-time Gold Glove Award winner and handling a predominantly veteran pitching staff on a team with World Series aspirations. "I've been waiting all my life for this opportunity, and I'm pretty excited," said the 6-foot, 185-pound Mathis, who hit .276 with 21 home runs and 73 runs batted in at triple-A Salt Lake last season before spending most of September with the Angels.

It's clear that RHP Joel Pineiro is ahead of most all of the pitchers in game-readiness. "Everything feels pretty good," said Pineiro, who froze some of the hitters he faced with some decent sliders. "I started throwing two or three weeks earlier than I would have because of the WBC."

 

 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" here at Fantistics. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections, Grading, & the VAM drafting strategy models. Anthony  worked as a Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical portfolio models before creating the Fantistics group. His fantasy expertise has been published in several national publications, including being featured as a guest expert on Major League Baseball's official website. He can be seen hanging around the MLB spring training facilities (wishing they let him play) during the months of February and March. Having won a "trophy room full" of Fantasy Sports Championships over the last 14 years, he hopes to continue to lead you in the same direction.


 
   
   
   
   
   
 

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