The Elusive Hold

 

The Hold is a relatively new metric that attempts to measure the effectiveness of a middle relief pitcher. The growing popularity of fantasy baseball has given the hold a little more air time in recent years, but it is still only used in a small percentage of fantasy leagues. Of the dozens of fantasy leagues I have played in over the years, only a few took the brave leap to include it as a scoring category. From time to time, I get e-mails from subscribers asking to address middle relievers more in our daily player spotlights. So, I've decided to go a step further and give you some leisure weekend reading on the hold: a brief history of it, how its calculated, the players that dominate the category, and some hold forecasts for the remainder of the fantasy season.

 

A Brief History

 

In 1986, the hold was the brainchild of John Dewan and Mike O'Donnell, the authors of the Chicago Baseball Report. They define the hold as:

 

A Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation, records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead.

 

This definition basically holds true today with Major League Baseball clarifying that a pitcher cannot finish the game and receive credit for a hold, nor can he earn a hold and a save in the same game. Some statistical information providers have added there own variation to this rule, eliminating the need to record an out, but I don't believe this is widely accepted. There have also been arguments in certain baseball circles that you should not be allowed to get a save or a hold in blow-out games if you pitch three or more innings. I happen to agree with this argument. For example, you should not be eligible for a save or a hold if your team is up 19-2 and you pitch three innings of relief. It defeats the purpose and the connotative meaning of the metric, don't you think?

 

Who Dominates the Hold Category?

 

Holds are typically accumulated by established setup guys. Think of some of these pitchers as the "backup closers"in case the regular closer gets hurt. Jonathan Broxton with the Dodgers, Hideki Okajima with the Red Sox, Scot Shield with the Angels are perfect examples of regular 8^th inning guys who have been successful converting holds.

 

The chart below shows the top-20 holds guys for the season through July 25^th. As you can see by this list, there are multiple pitchers per team who earn holds with regular frequency.

 

	Player	Team	HD	APP	INN	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
1)	Turnbow, Derrick	MIL	24	49	43.7	56	3.71	1.19	0.194
2)	Broxton, Jonathan	LA	23	51	51.7	61	2.44	1.18	0.211
3)	Shields, Scot	ANA	23	46	52.3	45	2.41	1.03	0.191
4)	Betancourt, Rafael	CLE	21	42	47.0	40	1.15	0.68	0.172
5)	Pena, Tony A.	ARI	20	47	56.0	38	2.09	0.95	0.188
6)	Bell, Heath	SD	19	49	56.7	57	2.07	0.97	0.204
7)	Lyon, Brandon	ARI	19	47	48.0	26	2.63	1.25	0.250
8)	Rauch, Jon	WAS	19	54	53.7	44	3.69	1.06	0.214
9)	Okajima, Hideki	BOS	17	45	49.7	42	0.91	0.83	0.168
10)	Corpas, Manuel	COL	16	50	49.0	42	2.39	1.10	0.220
11)	Janssen, Casey	TOR	16	47	52.0	27	2.25	1.10	0.230
12)	Soriano, Rafael	ATL	16	46	44.0	38	3.68	0.98	0.205
13)	Walker, Jamie	BAL	16	51	37.7	26	2.63	1.14	0.238
14)	Capps, Matt	PIT	15	50	52.3	36	2.24	1.03	0.224
15)	Downs, Scott	TOR	15	52	38.7	43	2.33	1.35	0.220
16)	Franklin, Ryan	STL	15	42	49.7	21	1.27	0.87	0.207
17)	Lindstrom, Matt	FLA	15	43	40.3	36	3.79	1.39	0.261
18)	Linebrink, Scott	MIL	15	44	45.0	25	3.80	1.22	0.240
19)	Sherrill, George	SEA	15	46	30.7	30	1.17	0.72	0.158
20)	Villanueva, Carlos	MIL	15	41	68.0	66	3.71	1.25	0.217

Since there is no "blown hold"category like there is for saves, it can be tough to determine just how successful a middle reliever is in hold opportunities. A balanced analysis of stranded runner percentage, WHIP, and ERA should determine a pitcher's general ability to convert holds when given the chance. When drafting middle relievers or picking them up off the waiver wire, I always look at appearances (represented by APP above) and strikeouts. Since more than one pitcher can get a hold in any given game, more appearances should generally dictate a manager's confidence in the reliever which in turn should yield more holds over the long run.

 

Looking Forward

 

With the recent trade of Scott Linebrink to the Brewers, Derrick Turnbow's leading position on this list shouldn't last long. While Turnbow should continue to get some holds, Linebrink should see more appearances as the main setup man for Milwaukee closer Francisco Cordero.

Manny Corpas, Jamie Walker, and Matt Capps are all in the top-20 for holds, but are currently getting save opportunities for their respective clubs as fill-in closers. Their positions in the top-20 should last long either, so their hold value diminishes.

 

Pat Neshak, setup man for Joe Nathan in Minnesota, only has 9 holds this season despite 50 appearances. I would expect him to get more holds over the last couple of months of the season given his proven dominance so far in '07.

 

Scott Proctor, who has 11 holds in 51 appearances for the Yankees, is an interesting case. With the Yankees playing well again, he should see plenty of appearances in relief and should be in line to post holds at a faster rate. However, his name has been rumored in trade talks recently which could possibly send him to Tampa Bay. This would certainly diminish his hold value, but perhaps increasing his save value.

 

Antonio Alfonseca currently has 8 holds in 40 appearances for the Phillies, but should be able to nail down more when Tom Gordon and Brett Myers return in good health.

 

Final Thoughts

 

A lot of leagues don't utilize holds as a scoring category, but I think its fun to include an entire silo of major league players that typically go unnoticed. Call me crazy, but I like staying up late watching the west coast games to see if George Sherrill is going to get a hold for the Mariners and for my fantasy team. Like the closer spot, the middle reliever is a fantasy position that needs constant adjustment. If you're ahead of the curve with your information, you could typically fill-in the holds category as the season progresses. With that said, there is something to be said for drafting guys like Scot Shields who have earned 30+ holds in the last few seasons and are on pace to maintain that pace.

 

I hope this article cleared up some of the ambiguity of the hold and it shed some light on those no-name middle relievers who actually do have some fantasy value in some leagues. Have a great weekend!

 

-- Joe

jribando@fantistics.com