The Elusive Hold
The Hold is a relatively new metric
that attempts to measure the effectiveness of a middle relief pitcher.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> The growing popularity of fantasy baseball
has given the hold a little more air time in recent years, but it is still only
used in a small percentage of fantasy leagues.
Of the dozens of fantasy leagues I have played in over the years, only a
few took the brave leap to include it as a scoring category.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> From time to time, I get e-mails from
subscribers asking to address middle relievers more in our daily player
spotlights. So, I've decided to go a
step further and give you some leisure weekend reading on the hold: a brief
history of it, how its calculated, the players that
dominate the category, and some hold forecasts for the remainder of the fantasy
season.
A Brief History
In 1986, the hold was the brainchild of John
class=SpellE>Dewan and Mike O'Donnell, the authors of the Chicago
Baseball Report. They define the hold
as:
A
Hold is credited any time a relief pitcher enters a game in a Save Situation,
records at least one out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the
lead.
This definition basically holds true today with Major League
Baseball clarifying that a pitcher cannot finish the game and receive credit
for a hold, nor can he earn a hold and a save in the same game.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Some statistical information providers have
added there own variation to this rule, eliminating the need to record an out,
but I don't believe this is widely accepted.
There have also been arguments in certain baseball circles that you
should not be allowed to get a save or a hold in blow-out games if you pitch
three or more innings. I happen to agree
with this argument. For example, you
should not be eligible for a save or a hold if your team is up 19-2 and you
pitch three innings of relief. It
defeats the purpose and the connotative meaning of the metric, don't you think?
Who Dominates the Hold
Category?
Holds are typically accumulated by established setup
guys. Think of some of these pitchers as
the "backup closers"in case the regular closer gets hurt.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Jonathan Broxton with the Dodgers, Hideki
class=SpellE>Okajima with the Red Sox, Scot
Shield with the Angels are perfect examples of regular 8th inning
guys who have been successful converting holds.
The chart below shows the top-20 holds guys for the season
through July 25th. As you can
see by this list, there are multiple pitchers per team who earn holds with
regular frequency.
style='width:408.05pt;margin-left:4.65pt;border-collapse:collapse;mso-padding-alt:
0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt'>
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Player
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Team
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>HD
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>APP
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>INN
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>K
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ERA
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WHIP
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BAA
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>1)
|
Turnbow, Derrick
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>MIL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 24
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 49
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 43.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 56
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.71
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.19
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.194
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>2)
|
Broxton,
Jonathan
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>LA
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 23
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 51
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 51.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 61
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.44
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.18
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.211
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>3)
|
Shields,
Scot
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ANA
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 23
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 46
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 52.3
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 45
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.41
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.03
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.191
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>4)
|
Betancourt,
Rafael
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>CLE
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 21
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 42
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 47.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 40
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.15
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.68
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.172
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>5)
|
Pena,
Tony A.
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ARI
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 20
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 47
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 56.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 38
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.09
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.95
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.188
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>6)
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Bell
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>, Heath
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>SD
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 19
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 49
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 56.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 57
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.07
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.97
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.204
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>7)
|
Lyon,
w:st="on">Brandon
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ARI
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 19
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 47
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 48.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 26
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.63
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.25
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.250
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>8)
|
Rauch,
Jon
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WAS
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 19
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 54
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 53.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 44
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.69
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.06
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.214
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>9)
|
Okajima, Hideki
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BOS
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 17
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 45
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 49.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.91
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.83
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.168
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>10)
|
Corpas, Manuel
|
w:st="on">COL
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 16
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 50
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 49.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 42
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.39
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.10
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.220
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>11)
|
Janssen,
Casey
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>TOR
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 16
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 47
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 52.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 27
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.10
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.230
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>12)
|
Soriano,
Rafael
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ATL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 16
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 46
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 44.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 38
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.68
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.98
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.205
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>13)
|
Walker,
Jamie
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BAL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 16
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 51
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 37.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 26
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.63
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.14
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.238
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>14)
|
Capps,
Matt
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PIT
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 50
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 52.3
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.24
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.03
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.224
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>15)
|
Downs,
Scott
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>TOR
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 52
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 38.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 43
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
2.33
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.35
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.220
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>16)
|
Franklin,
Ryan
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>STL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 42
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 49.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 21
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.27
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.87
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.207
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>17)
|
Lindstrom,
Matt
|
w:st="on">FLA
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 43
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 40.3
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 36
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.79
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.39
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.261
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>18)
|
Linebrink, Scott
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>MIL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 44
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 45.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 25
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.80
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.22
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.240
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>19)
|
Sherrill,
George
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>SEA
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 46
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 30.7
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 30
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.17
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
0.72
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.158
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>20)
|
Villanueva,
Carlos
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>MIL
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 15
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 41
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 68.0
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 66
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
3.71
|
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
1.25
|
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> 0.217
|
Since there is no "blown hold"category like there is for saves,
it can be tough to determine just how successful a middle reliever is in hold
opportunities. A balanced analysis of
stranded runner percentage, WHIP, and ERA should determine a pitcher's general
ability to convert holds when given the chance.
When drafting middle relievers or picking them up off the waiver wire, I
always look at appearances (represented by APP above) and strikeouts.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Since more than one pitcher can get a hold in
any given game, more appearances should generally dictate a manager's confidence
in the reliever which in turn should yield more holds over the long run.
Looking Forward
With the recent trade of Scott Linebrink
to the Brewers, Derrick Turnbow's leading position on
this list shouldn't last long. While
class=SpellE>Turnbow should continue to get some holds,
class=SpellE>Linebrink should see more appearances as the main setup man
for Milwaukee
closer Francisco Cordero.
Manny Corpas, Jamie Walker, and
Matt Capps are all in the top-20 for holds, but are currently getting save
opportunities for their respective clubs as fill-in closers.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Their positions in the top-20 should last
long either, so their hold value diminishes.
Pat Neshak, setup man for Joe
Nathan in Minnesota,
only has 9 holds this season despite 50 appearances.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> I would expect him to get more holds over the
last couple of months of the season given his proven dominance so far in '07.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>
Scott Proctor, who has 11 holds in 51 appearances for the
Yankees, is an interesting case. With
the Yankees playing well again, he should see plenty of appearances in relief
and should be in line to post holds at a faster rate.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> However, his name has been rumored in trade
talks recently which could possibly send him to
w:st="on">Tampa Bay.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> This would certainly diminish his hold value,
but perhaps increasing his save value.
Antonio Alfonseca currently has 8 holds in 40 appearances
for the Phillies, but should be able to nail down more when Tom Gordon and
Brett Myers return in good health.
Final Thoughts
A lot of leagues don't utilize holds as a scoring category,
but I think its fun to include an entire silo of major league players that
typically go unnoticed. Call me crazy,
but I like staying up late watching the west coast games to see if George
Sherrill is going to get a hold for the Mariners and for my fantasy team.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> Like the closer spot, the middle reliever is
a fantasy position that needs constant adjustment.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> If you're ahead of the curve with your
information, you could typically fill-in the holds category as the season
progresses. With that said, there is
something to be said for drafting guys like Scot Shields who have earned 30+
holds in the last few seasons and are on pace to maintain that pace.
style='mso-spacerun:yes'>
I hope this article cleared up some of the ambiguity of the
hold and it shed some light on those no-name middle relievers who actually do
have some fantasy value in some leagues.
Have a great weekend!
-- Joe
jribando@fantistics.com
