Chicago Cubs:
Carlos Marmol's rough spring:
Prior to Tuesday's disastrous outing (0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB); Carlos Marmol was motoring along through spring training with a 1.86 ERA that on the surface showed little reason for concern. As you can probably tell by my clever use of "on the surface", the peripheral statistics in Marmol's small spring sample size (even before the eruption) weren't so appealing. Marmol had walked 7 and struck out just 4 in those 9 2/3 innings as he did his usual tight-rope routine while keeping runs off the board. The poor command is nothing new to fantasy owners as Marmol has walked 15.5% of the batters he's faced in his career, but the lack of strikeouts is continuing a worrisome trend. Marmol's K% remains above the league average but over the last three years it's gone from 41.6% to 30.3% to 29.2%. Now there is a bit of "start-point" bias in that sample as the previous three years Marmol's K% was 33.7%, 32.8%, and 27.8%, but some other indicators suggest Marmol's recent decline in K% is likely to continue. In 2012, Marmol's swinging strike % fell to 9.1% after spending five consecutive years above 10% and averaging well over 11%. In addition Marmol's contact rates inside the strike zone spiked to a career high 74.2% (average 71.2%). The underlying indicators support the drop in Marmol's K% and the inability to generate whiffs in the strike zone has forced Marmol to try and get hitters to chase more. His Zone % (% of pitches inside the strike zone) was a career low 43.6% (average 47.8%) and unfortunately for Marmol hitters weren't budging (career low 22% chase rate). As a result we've got a pitcher whose deteriorating ability to miss bats is now feeding into an increasing propensity to walk batters and work from behind. The last two seasons Marmol has allowed line drive rates well above his career average and his HR/FB Rates have started to normalize. This makes sense. Marmol is working from behind more, with weaker stuff, and thus hitters are squaring him up better as they're able to sit on "their" pitch.
Now Marmol is an interesting position with the Cubs, who have come out in support of their closer. He's in the final year of his contract and the Cubs are in a rebuilding mode. They'd like to build up his trade value by keeping the shiny "closer's" tag on him and recoup some value on him before the wheels fall off. As a result, you'll see Marmol get a very long leash early in the season. Ultimately though one of two things will happen, either 1) Marmol pitches well enough to get traded or 2) Marmol destroys his value and the Cubs are forced to absorb the sunk cost, moving their newly-signed Japanese reliever Kyuji Fukijawa into the role. Based on the skill deterioration, the second scenario seems more likely than the first, but what fantasy owners should note is both scenarios likely result in Marmol not getting saves in the 2nd half of the season. Now there are certainly some scenarios in between but I think these two present the most likely and it's the reason I've been saying all preseason I think Kyuji Fujikawa ends up leading the Cubs in saves by year's end.
A Contrarian Take on Anthony Rizzo:
As a Cubs fan AND fellow Marjory Stoneman Douglas alum (Go Eagles!), you'd think I'd be all aboard the breakout train as my biases overwhelm my analysis. Sadly for me (not so much for you), my highly analytical brain prevents me in most cases (Mike Trout excluded) from romanticizing a player and instead focuses me on their peripherals. In Rizzo's case there is obviously a lot to like. He's a big power hitting 1B who posted elite LD Rates last season (24.4%) and plays in a home park that inflates left-handed power. He's also revered within the Cubs organization which locks in his playing time and heck he's even beat cancer!
There are, however, some warning signs in Rizzo's profile that he'll need to overcome in order to take another step forward. If you dig in on Rizzo's plate discipline you'll notice an alarming 38.5% chase rate (% of pitches outside the strike zone which Rizzo swung at). The league average is around 30-31%, so Rizzo is offering at far more difficult pitches to hit than the average hitter. Last year, this didn't result in an extended K Rate as he struck out in just 16.8% of his PA's, but the year before a brief stint with the Padres a poor approach led to a 30+% K% and most of Rizzo's minor league seasons he held a 20+% K%. Certainly players grow and they improve, but Rizzo's swinging strike rate of 9.6% was also above the league average last year of 9.1%. Perhaps too simple of an assumption but the fact that Rizzo had above average chase rates and swinging strike rates make me think his below average K Rate (16.8% vs. average of 19.8%) is a bit shaky.
In addition, pitchers seemed to adapt to Rizzo as the season went on. They offered him fewer pitches in the strike zone and allowed him to restrict some of his power by making him hit "pitcher's pitches". A look at Rizzo's ISO by month last year: June - .333, July - .237, August - .090, September - .193; tells a bit of the tale. The below average plate discipline coupled with a slowing production pace as the season wore on have me concerned Rizzo's 2012 production may have been a bit over-stated and the significant jump forward that we're all hoping for might come from a lower base-line. My other concerns around Rizzo revolve around his issues with LHP. Rizzo posted an ugly .208/.243/.356 line against LHP last year and if he's really going to put a monstrous season together he can't be utterly useless in 30% of his plate appearances.
On the positive side for Rizzo he IS just 23 years old and won't turn 24 until August. He has shown the ability to make adjustments at the big league level after his horrific debut in 2011 and by all accounts he's a very hard worker. Those betting on Rizzo to put together a gigantic breakout season aren't doing so haphazardly, there are reasons to be excited about the youngster, but in some cases it feels like an "expected linear development" for a young player. This is something I caution fantasy owners about all the time. Young players don't all progress in a linear fashion and they don't all develop in the same way. Rizzo could continue to show improvements and fulfill those expecting a breakout, but I believe this is a situation where they're "betting on the come" as opposed to valuing the player as his performance currently suggests.
Florida Marlins:
Update on Logan Morrison:
Quiet and Logan Morrison don't usually go together in the same sentence but that's largely what it's been this spring with the young Marlins 1B. Morrison has experienced some delays in his surgically repaired knee and what was assumed to be a mid-April return is starting to drift further into the year. Morrison still hasn't begun on-field activities, the least of which includes running, and as a result his time-table is starting to look more like mid-May. We're still very high on Morrison's skills which outside of twitter include an exceptional 11% career BB Rate and .192 ISO. He's yet to put all the skills together in the same season while also staying healthy, which is the reason he's a draft-day bargain. With the question marks surrounding his health leaking into the second month of the season, he should only be considered for formats with deep benches or DL slots available to stash. Once healthy we think Morrison has the chops to put up per game averages amongst the top 10-15 1B, but the opportunity cost of tying up a roster spot in the first 6-7 weeks of the season is a meaningful early in the year when trying to identify breakout candidates. Make sure you understand your league settings well before taking the risk.
Marlins agree to terms with Miguel Olivo, impact to Rob Brantly?
With major league cuts being made this week you'll see some movement on the periphery that affects fantasy owners and one such move could be on the horizon in Miami. On Thursday morning the Reds released Miguel Olivo, paving the way for Devin Mesoraco to earn the backup catcher's role, but also potentially paving the way for Olivo to join up with the Marlins. According to reports, Miguel Olivo asked for his release and was granted and just hours after the news broke sources began tying his name to Miami where the current catcher competition includes Rob Brantly and Kyle Skipworth. Brantly is an offense first catcher who has some work to do with his receiving skills but hit an impressive .290/.372/.460 last year in 113 PA's with the Marlins. Digging deeper on Brantly's first turn through the majors you'll notice he did almost all of his damage against RHP (.313/.396/.513) while he struggled against southpaws to the tune of .200/273/.250. Olivo, a career .270/.303/.477 hitter vs. LHP, would make for an ideal platoon partner and provide some more experience for the Marlins who are very young at the catcher position. Olivo himself isn't a particularly adept receiver and with the Marlins in rebuilding mode he poses no threat to Brantly's status as the starting catcher, but he likely would cut into AB's vs. LHP. If you're a Brantly owner, oddly, I think this is a good thing. The Marlins would be more inclined to schedule Brantly's maintenance days around a LHP, allowing Brantly to stay fresh but also get maximum value out of his bat. His short-term performance last season at the major leagues seems exceptionally over-stated as he was hitting .298/.340/.412 across AA and AAA last year while flashing a BB Rate and ISO about half of what he put up at the big league level. Brantly is an interesting young catching option in deep formats, but I remain higher on players like Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal (including the suspension) as a 2nd catcher option than I am on someone with Brantly's limited offensive track record.
Colorado Rockies:
Chris Nelson named the opening day 3B, Nolan Arenado will start in AAA:
There was some buzz two weeks back about the Rockies considering breaking camp with Nolen Arenado as their starting 3B but I cautioned our subscribers that it seemed inconsistent with their handling of the young 3B last year. Arenado's piping hot start in spring inevitably slowed and as it did the conversation around him starting with the big league club. Through Wednesday's action he was hitting .288/.288/.596 showing great pop, but inadequate plate discipline with a 0:8 BB:K Ratio. Arenado showed strong contact rates and adequate power in AA last year as he hit .285/.337/.428 but that line didn't exactly suggest he was major league ready. Arenado will start at AAA and be given the opportunity if he pushes the Rockies hand, but don't expect to see him before May at the earliest and more likely the summer.
Chris Nelson is the big beneficiary for fantasy purposes as he solidifies the opening day role. Nelson is a career .284/.327/.427 hitter at the big league level. He's experienced a BABIP boost (.343 average) thanks to a career 23.5% LD Rate and the big gaps in Coors Field that allows him to post a solid batting average despite unappealing contact rates (79.7% Contact Rate, 20.7% K%). Nelson, like his counterpart Jordan Pacheco, doesn't have much HR power or speed, so his fantasy appeal is largely tied to position flexibility, batting average, and the supporting lineup around him. With Nelson likely to hit 8th to start the season and potentially compete for AB's with Pacheco, he's nothing more than a deep league option, but his value does get a slight boost with the confirmation he has early season playing time. I wouldn't get too overwhelmed by the .301/.352/.458 line he posted in 377 PA's last season as a .374 BABIP and unusual (for him) 13.6% HR/FB Rate inflated those numbers quite a bit. I think his career line (noted above) is a fair expectation for his production going forward.
Additional Notes Around the League:
Bruce Rondon (RP - DET): The Tigers optioned Bruce Rondon down to AAA on Thursday clearing the way for a bullpen by committee approach to the closer's role which Jim Leyland has hinted at this spring. Rondon has a big time fastball but it doesn't have a lot of movement and without advanced secondary pitches, he showed this spring he simply wasn't ready for big league action (9 BB's, 26 base-runners in 12 1/3 IP). While Rondon continues his development on the farm, fantasy owners are left trying to figure out who will be the primary source of saves in Detroit. The bullpen has two primary options and one sleeper option. Phil Coke was thrust into the closer's role in the postseason and with Drew Smyly (another lefty) in the pen, Leyland could look in that direction again. Joaquin Benoit (10.65 K/9, 2.79 BB/9) probably has the best skills of the group, but has durability concerns and the Tigers are rightfully cautious with him. Leyland has specifically said in the past that Benoit's workload would be monitored and was one of the reasons they wouldn't consider him a full-time closer. The sleeper option is Al Albuquerque who aside from a really cool name has exceptional strikeout rates (12.15 K/9 last season) but often struggles with command (5.40 BB/9). The whole situation appears likely to be headed the way of the committee with Benoit and Coke likely sharing the majority of matchup-based save opportunities. In committee situations it's important to understand your league settings in order to know the best way to approach them. Players with daily lineup transactions can afford to roster many middle relievers and shuffle starters in and out based on probable pitchers. In those instances there is no downside to holding members of a committee. Similarly in very deep leagues (15 team mixed and beyond, NL or AL Only) where middle relievers are used there is little opportunity cost to owning a piece of a committee. In those formats I think Benoit and Coke are strong pickup candidates and since Benoit has slightly better skills and is RH I'd lean to him as the top pick-up. In 10 and 12-team leagues with weekly lineup settings committees can be a real drag on your staff. In those cases middle relievers typically aren't used to boost ratios because the replacement level of the SP's on the wire is strong. Subsequently activating a reliever who is sharing save opportunities can leave you trailing in counting categories while making up little ground in saves or ratios. In 10 and 12 team mixed leagues with weekly settings I don't mind rostering committee options on your bench, but be careful deploying them without a full-time role.
Shelby Miller (SP - STL): We have no shortage of writers on are staff that are big fans of Shelby Miller, but I feel the need to get my two cents in since I think I've now landed him in every draft I've participated in. Miller is a high level pitching prospect who debuted out of the Cardinals bullpen in September and posted a 29.6% K% and 7.4% BB% in 13 2/3 innings. This spring he's posted a 3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP along with a solid 13:5 K:BB Ratio in 16 spring innings. The performance wasn't overwhelming but it was enough to earn the 5th spot in the Cardinals rotation. Last year at AAA, Miller posted a 4.74 ERA at AAA with the usual good peripherals (10.54 K/9, 3.29 BB/9) but it was really a tale of two halves. Miller had lost a bunch of weight in preparation for big league camp in 2012 and he struggled with consistency in his delivery in the first part of the season. As he worked his way back up to his usual weight the results started to come. He posted a 2.88 ERA with 70 K's and just 7 BB's in his last 59 1/3 IP. The improvement in command in the 2nd half would be a true difference maker at the big league level. In Miller's minor league career he posted a 3.2 BB/9 mark that would translate closer to 3.5 or 3.6 at the major league level. At those levels, Miller would be a negative WHIP contributor and a bit of an ERA risk, but one that his exceptional K Rates would warrant taking a chance on. The range of outcomes remains large for young pitching prospects, but Miller's potential for a 9+ K/9 and good W potential with a strong Cardinals team is one that has me gambling on him. In a recent 15-team NFBC draft, I took Shelby as my 4th SP (Kershaw, Darvish, Fister top 3). In 10 and 12 team leagues I've been stashing him as my 6th or 7th SP and hoping to capitalize on that great K Rate. If Miller maintains the command growth he saw in the 2nd half of last season he has the upside of a #2 starter in fantasy this year (long-term potential #1) with the downside of an Edinson Volquez type if he can't consistently pound the zone.
Stephen Drew (SS - BOS): The Red Sox have elected to use the 7-day DL as Stephen Drew continues to battle concussion symptoms. A noted health risk, Drew will once again miss time to start the season. He's an interesting late round flier once again depending on league type (DL slots, daily lineup transactions ideal for Drew). Boston is an obvious hitters haven and Drew is willing to use the whole field making the green monster a nice target to flick balls off of for the left-handed power-hitting SS. Drew showed some intriguing peripherals last year despite a horrific .223/.309/.348 line. He walked in 11.3% of his plate appearances and only chased 19.7% of pitches outside the strike zone. He also posted a low 7.5% swinging strike %, but endured a big jump in his K% (23.2%, career 17.7%) because of his, perhaps, excessively patient approach that led to many deep counts. When Drew did make contact a monstrous 27.6% LD Rate suggests he was squaring the ball up well, but the resulting .275 BABIP really suppressed his batting average. It's exceptionally unlikely Drew stays healthy enough to be a traditional mixed league contributor during the season, but for those with DL slots where the risk is simply moving him onto the DL and adding another player, I think he's an intriguing late-round gamble. Drew represents another player where it's important to understand your league settings to potentially unlock some added value.
Sergio Santos (RP - TOR): Santos surrendered 4 runs in his inning of work on Thursday against the Phillies, marking the 2nd blow-up he's had of the spring. Santos has now allowed 7 ER's in his 7 innings this spring while being victimized by two long-balls. The stuff has been there for Santos (8 K's in 7 IP) but his command has been wobbly (3 BB's) and his fly-ball propensities have cost him a shot at the closer's role while Casey Janssen has rehabbed himself back. With the Blue Jays pen deeper than it has been in years past and Santos having battled some arm issues early in the spring he may need to work his way back into the primary setup role.
Rick Porcello (SP - DET): The big news broke earlier in the week that Rick Porcello had bested Drew Smyly in the competition for the Tigers 5th starter slot. Porcello battled trade rumors all spring training but has put together one of the more impressive springs. Porcello has posted a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 24 innings but most impressively has compiled a 21:0 K:BB Ratio. Having been burnt by spring training stars in the past (2012 Francisco Liriano I'm looking at you), I tend to de-emphasize spring training performances unless there are mechanical changes to take note of. With Porcello, there actually are some rather notable ones to focus in on. Porcello has reportedly scrapped his slider and started to throw his curve-ball as his primary breaking pitch. This was actually his primary breaking ball out of high school and along with Porcello's big velocity one of the reasons he was a highly coveted amateur. Looking back at Porcello's usage patterns at the big league level, it's clear the pitch took a back-seat. For his career Porcello has thrown fastballs ~70% of the time with his slider being used ~15%, change-up ~ 11% and his curveball just 4%. In terms of effectiveness his FB has been considered a modestly above average pitch while his change-up and curve-ball have both been modestly below average and his slider has been a complete disaster (-23.2 runs below replacement), with much of that disaster coming last year. Porcello still has a ways to go before he's mixed league relevant as his career 1.42 WHIP paired with an underwhelming 5.00 K/9 make him a starter that does more damage to your ratios than helps your K's and W's. That being said, I have some optimism around the improvements this spring. If Porcello's spring K Rate (7.89 K/9) is hinting at any meaningful improvement in the K Rate, the rest of the arsenal could come. The upside remains modest (think Trevor Cahill type), but the 24 year old has the stuff and the prospect pedigree to take a step forward. He's only worth considering in deep mixed leagues or AL Only formats at this point, but I think Porcello gets his K/9 over 6.0 this year and I think the LD's come down as well making him more of a 3.70 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 starter that is palatable in deep leagues. He's one of the few guys whose spring training performance is one I'm buying into.
Dan Uggla (2B - ATL): I've noted mechanical adjustments are one thing I look for in spring, another thing is players who appear to be on the verge of falling off a cliff. Dan Uggla represents one of those cases as his 2012 performance revealed plenty to be concerned about. Uggla still walked at a great clip (nearly 15%) thanks to a strong understanding of the strike zone, but a significant deterioration in his contact rates (70% in 2012, career 72.7% overall) specifically inside the strike zone (77.7% in 2012, 80.8% career) led to a huge expansion of his K Rate from a career 23.2% to 26.7% last year. The deteriorating contact rates, specifically in the strike zone, suggest slowing bat speed and it was backed up by Uggla's drop in his ISO to a career worst .164. This spring hasn't provided much reason for optimism as Uggla has hit .200/.268/.280 with a whopping 25 K's in 75 AB's. We have Uggla pretty far down in our rankings already, but I've considered him pretty much undraft-able in the leagues I've been participating this year. Uggla's profile was always one that figured to age poorly (highly bat speed dependent) and it appears we may have reached that point with Uggla.
Tyson Ross (SP - SD): Reports are surfacing out of San Diego that the Padres are inclined to choose Tyson Ross over Andrew Cashner for the 5th spot in their rotation. This is a bit of a surprise and a disappointing one to fantasy owners as Cashner is the player that holds all the upside. Ross has been OK this spring (2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP - 8.14 K/9, 4.29 BB/9), but his career xFIP of 4.42 suggest there isn't much special to him. Pitching in PETCO (even with the fences moved in) could help Ross' strikeouts play up and perhaps keep the ERA down, but his career 10.7% BB Rate suggests WHIP is going to be a problem. The real fantasy impact here is the downgrade in value for Cashner who will shift back to a bullpen role. Cashner has a career 3.71 xFIP with an intriguing combination of strikeout skills (22.8% K%) and GB Rate (51+%) that we look for in potential breakout pitchers. It appears Cashner won't get the immediate chance in the rotation.
Johan Santana (SP - NYM): In a late afternoon press conference the Mets revealed Johan Santana likely has re-torn the shoulder capsule and will face season-ending surgery. Santana had already faced a long potential rehab recovery before knowing the extent of the injury but this will likely knock him out for good. He can be removed from all draft boards and watch lists for the 2013 season and odds are we've likely seen the last of Johan Santana as a viable fantasy option. One of the truly elite fantasy starting pitchers in his prime, the Mets have gotten just 9.6 wins above replacement in their four years with Santana. For comparison's sake from 2004-2006 Santana averaged 7.4 wins above replacement per year.
Alex Gordon (OF - KC): Gordon stayed red-hot this spring by launching his 7th HR of the spring and raising his batting line to .431/.488/.778 in 72 AB's. The power surge is nice to see for fantasy owners since it took Gordon 642 AB's to hit 14 HR's last year and the lack of HR's really sapped a lot of Gordon's fantasy value. The interesting thing about Gordon's 2012 season is he made a lot of individual improvements but his production translated into a big drop-off in fantasy value simply because he didn't accrue HR's and SB's. Gordon improved his BB Rate and his K Rate while lowering his swinging strike rate and improving his already very strong line drive rates (25% last year, career 21.7%). Most of Gordon's profile looks right in line with his 2012 performance with the exception of his HR/FB Rate. Gordon's HR/FB Rate the previous three years ranged from 11.3%-12.6% but last year dropped to 8.5%. While Gordon is unlikely to challenge the 20 SB threshold again, a return to the 20+ HR season with 100+ Runs and 75+ RBI's seems very likely. Gordon seems like a tremendous bet to finish the season as a Top 25 OF again.
Domonic Brown (OF - PHI): Domonic Brown has always had the talent and in his brief major league opportunities he's flashed above average skills (19.7% LD Rate, 10.4% BB Rate, .152 ISO), but the Phillies haven't had the same faith in Brown that most of us in the fantasy industry have displayed. This spring it appears that Brown has made it difficult for them to ignore him as he's hit .376/.430/.671 in 85 AB's. As I've noted repeatedly in the blurbs today, spring training stats alone don't impact my evaluation but when they come with a mechanical change I take notice. With Brown a small change that the Phillies new hitting coach Wally Joyner suggested with Brown's hands appear to have made a meaningful difference. Brown's confidence is back and he's consistently driving the ball to all fields this spring, something he did to earn top prospect status working his way through the minors. With Brown's playing time secure through the first month of the season (no Delmon Young), it appears he's finally ready to assume the big role we expected a few years back when he made his debut. Sometimes all it takes is a small adjustment for a player to realize his potential and I think we're seeing that take place with Brown this spring.
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