Minnesota Twins
Twins' top power threat: Oswaldo Arcia
The 23-year old Twins' outfielder has yet to go deep in Spring Training this season, but he has a pair of doubles, and is hitting for a good average (.364). Granted, Arcia has only played in seven games in spring so far, but the lack of any home runs is somewhat notable given his propensity for the long ball in his time with the Twins. In 788 career plate appearances at the major league level (just slightly more than a full season), Arcia has 34 home runs, despite his home stadium being a quite spacious one in the Twin Cities. The biggest concern with Arcia is that his limited batting average may hold him back from every day playing time in Minnesota. However, Arcia should see a bounce back in terms of his average, with his 2015 campaign more likely to see an average near his .251 average in 2013 than his .231 average in 2014. Arcia hits a good numbers of line drives (21.5 LD% in 2014), and had a BABIP well above .300 at each stop in the minors with the exception of Rookie ball back in 2009. Last year his BABIP was only .292, which helped contribute to his .231 average. In terms of home run production (which is what Arcia drafters will be looking for), Arcia had a slightly elevated HR/FB rate in 2014, but he is a powerful hitter who may well be able to outproduce league average home run rates in his prime. If Arcia can hold on to a full time spot in left field he should see a big enough increase in plate appearances to more than make up for any slight drop off in home run rate. Look for 25+ home runs to go along with solid RuBIns (runs+RBI) in an underrated Twins' offense.
Eduardo Nunez, pop up guy
Ben Lindbergh recently wrote an excellent tongue-in-cheek article on Nunez for Grantland in which Lindbergh snarkily pointed out the extreme irregularity with which Nunez pops out. As Lindbergh points out in the article, batters hit .021/.021/.026 on pop ups last year, making it an absolute killer for any batter. Nunez has a career infield fly ball rate of 21.1 percent, a figure that would have led all of baseball by nearly four percent in the one-year sample size of 2014 alone. Sure, Nunez may be hitting well this Spring Training, and he also has the pedigree of a top prospect in the Yankees' system when he was coming up through the minors, but don't fall for this trap, even in AL-Only Leagues. Escobar is the projected starter at shortstop, and even if Nunez were to take over the starting gig at some point during the season, his limited offensive talent makes him a fantasy no-go.
Glen Perkins still got it
Perkins returned to the mound on Thursday, after two weeks out with a strained right oblique. This is great news for perspective Perkins' owners, as he went one sharp inning with a strikeout and one hit allowed against the Red Sox. Perkins finished 2014 with a 3.65 ERA, his highest season ERA since before he became the team's closer. Some folks would look at this as a sign that the 32-year old could possibly be on the decline, but with the way older closers have succeeded in recent years, and the nature of Perkins high ERA, the Twins' closer is a good candidate to bounce back in 2015. Perkins had a far more respectable ERA of 2.78 before his final four outings in which he gave up seven runs in 3.1 innings before being shut down with a forearm injury to end the season. Reliever ERA's are very fluky because of the minimal sample size inherent in the role, and when Perkins saw his left on-base rate slide from 83.3 percent in 2013 to 70.6 percent in 2014, and his opponent BABIP rise from .271 in 2013 to .316 in 2014, his ERA was bound to jump up, even outside of his late season struggles. Expect Perkins improve his ERA in 2015, and pick up his typical 35ish saves to go along with that improved ERA (likely in the 2.80 area). Perkins has had a K/9 rate over 9.0 each of the last four years, topping out at 11.06 in his stud 2013 season. That figure may not be attainable, but he should continue to whiff more than a batter an inning while notching saves for the Twins.
Oakland A's
Is the A's offense good enough to make guys like Marcus Semien valuable?
Semien has played in 12 games for the A's in Spring Training, as he looks to settle in on the West Coast. Semien has a slash line (.273/.351/.455) that seems not only a solid start to his days in Oakland, but is also plausible as an end of year slash line. Semien came to Oakland as part of the Jeff Samardzija deal this offseason, and it's make-or-break time for the 24-year old. However, the A's traded away a lot of offensive talent in the offseason, and those essential run and RBI categories are going to suffer as a result. Semien is a solid but not outstanding contributor across the board (sans average, but with OBP potential), so he needs those runs and RBI to truly drive up his value. Semien projects as a bottom of the order hitter, which was OK for a team as offensively dominant as last year's A's. However, without some of the big bats that knocked in the number nine-type hitters for Oakland last year, Semien's value comes into question. I believe Semien will get a lot of plate appearances in 2015, and hit pretty well, but his RuBIns (runs+RBI) are going to look pretty ugly.
Scott Kazmir's extreme 2014 splits
Kazmir has looked mighty sharp for the A's so far this Spring Training. In 6.2 innings, Kazmir has given up only one run, and has 10 strikeouts to boot. Kazmir's career rejuvenation continued in Oakland last year, as he posted a 3.55 ERA and more importantly managed to throw 190.1 innings for the A's. He also posted a career-low WHIP (1.16) thanks to an also career-low walk rate (2.4 BB/9). Kazmir had a particularly strong first half, with an 11-3 record and 2.38 ERA at the All-Star break. Of course, the flip side of that coin is that Kazmir posted an ERA of 5.42 after the All-Star Break, leading to questions of whether he can handle a full season at this point in his career. Taking a look behind the curtain, there are some definite troubling signs.
The first thing to look at when analyzing splits is going to be the luck indicators, as those are the most likely to explain big changes in ERA and WHIP. Kazmir did indeed have terrible luck after the All-Star Game with opponent BABIP rising over 80 points (from .250 to .333) and his left on base rate plummeting from 81.9 percent to 59.4 percent. However, to imply that Kazmir's second half struggles were just luck-related would be a fallacy. Although the drop in LOB% was definitely tough luck, a good chunk of the rise in opponent's BABIP can be explained by the vast change in Kazmir's batted ball allowed profile. Kazmir's line drive rate jumped six percent in the second half (16.3 to 22.6), while he stopped getting hitters to hit grounders (47.2 percent down to 39.1 percent). Maybe most importantly, though, his fastball velocity decreased every month from June on, losing nearly two mph from June to September (93.18 to 91.28). That decrease in velocity helps to explain the fact that Kazmir saw his K/9 rate drop from 8.28 to 6.90 from the first half to the second half, while his walk rate rose from 2.07 to 2.84.
With the career arc Kazmir has had, even though he is only 31, that is a mighty old 31. If you take Kazmir and he starts well again, he is a perfect sell-high candidate, as he can't be trusted for a full season of great pitching at this point.
A's Bullpen breakdown
Tyler Clippard has been named the A's closer while Sean Doolittle recovers from a rotator cuff tear suffered in January. That does not, however, make Clippard worthy of a lofty draft slot. This opinion is not an indictment of Clippard, but it is worth noting that Clippard has struggled so far in Spring Training. Clippard has allowed four runs in 4.2 innings, but with that small a sample size there are bound to be some poor numbers even from good players.
The real reason Clippard is undeserving of a draft spot in leagues that reward saves is because Sean Doolittle is the real deal. Doolittle finished 2014 with a respectable ERA of 2.73, but he was far better than his ERA suggests. Doolittle's FIP was 1.71, and that's even with three separate appearances in which Doolittle gave up four or more runs. Doolitle had an insane 56:1 strikeout to walk ratio at one point late in June, and finished with a strikeout to walk ratio of 11.13 for the season. Doolittle struck out 12.78 batters per nine thanks to an unrelenting fastball up in the zone. Doolittle threw his fastball over 87 percent of the time in 2014, averaging over 95 mph in the process. When he went to his slider, Doolittle also had a ton of success, with opposing hitters only succeeding at a .080 BA clip (.200 slugging percentage against). A closer coming off a season like Doolittle had with two great pitches, and the control that Doolittle has to go along with his high-velocity fastball makes Doolittle a very intriguing closer option. Some folks may be scared off by the fact that he is starting the season on the DL and has other strong arms that could snipe saves from him, but don't let that turn you off towards Doolittle come draft night.
Around the League
Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner has been struggling this spring (eight runs and 16 baserunners allowed in 8.1 innings) and while that may not be a big deal for most top-tier pitchers, Bumgarner's struggles are a bit more worrisome. Of the top tier pitchers, Bumgarner seems like he has the biggest bust potential. Although his superhuman effort to carry the Giants to a title last season was heroic, it's becoming clearer the effect that type of workload has on a pitcher. Throwing 270 innings isn't the same death knell as 400 carries in a season for an NFL running back, but it certainly doesn't help. There have been plenty of hot takes on the decline of Bumgarner this week (including this one), and if he begins to fall in your draft his ceiling is still high, it's just with the extended workload from last year, his floor also seems the lowest of the elite arms in fantasy baseball.
Rusney Castillo
Castillo made his spring debut in style on Friday, with a home run in his lone at bat of the Red Sox 11-5 win over Baltimore. The 27-year old has missed the first half of Spring Training with an oblique strain, and may have to really get going to find a starting spot in a loaded Red Sox lineup. Castillo played very well in his ten games for Boston late last season, slashing .333/.400/.528 with two home runs and three steals in ten games. Castillo is one of the hardest players in fantasy baseball to project, given his lack of minor league experience to go off of (translating statistics from Cuba are still a work in progress) and the question of playing time. The risk/reward factor is high with Castillo, but based upon the fact that the "Fan projections" on Fangraphs are so much higher than Steamer and ZIPS, it's fair to assume the general public may be overhyping Castillo a bit. Don't consider this a "stay away from Castillo" conclusion, but rather "he's too difficult to get a read on" conclusion.
Joe Mauer
Joe Mauer went 0-for-3 on Friday, bringing his Spring slashes down to .158/.238/.211. Mauer now only has first base eligibility, and simply doesn't hit like a first baseman. It's hard to expect too much of a bounceback in the average department (.277 in 2014 vs. .319 for his career) considering that his BABIP was a lofty .342 last year. Now, that BABIP is certainly sustainable, what with his 27.2 line drive rate, but as teams shifted Mauer more and more in the outfield last year, Mauer was unable to drop in extra base hits in 2014. Mauer will almost certainly top his home run output from 2014, simply because hitting more than four home runs in a season is something basically any big league hitter can do. However, he probably won't top ten home runs by much, and even in a somewhat underrated Twins' offense, he really doesn't bring enough value for a first baseman. Mauer is currently being taken ahead of names like Mike Napoli, Kennys Vargas, and Adam Lind, all of whom I like more than Mauer in 2015.
Gerrit Cole
Cole threw five innings of two-run baseball on Friday, and currently sports a 3.95 ERA in 13.2 innings of work this spring. Cole has the pedigree and look of an ace, but hasn't quite put all the pieces together yet in his career. His FIP has been lower than his ERA in each season, despite a high strikeout rate and decent batter luck. Cole had the fifth-highest fastball velocity of any pitcher with at least 130 innings in 2014, but just seems to be missing something. Batters hit 11 home runs off Cole's fastball in 2014, and hit a not-that-low .273 off the pitch. Cole reminds me a bit of Yordano Ventura over in the American League, as both pitchers seem perpetually destined to break out, but haven't yet. Granted Cole will be in just his third MLB season in 2015, so perhaps not all is lost, and his ceiling is about as high as any pitcher going in the same time in the draft as Cole. I'm a big high ceiling guy, so I'll keep drafting guys like Cole, but don't just assume the break out is coming.
Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez went 3-for-4 Friday with three extra base hits, including his second long ball of the spring. The good day would be notable regardless, but the home run and one of the doubles both came against left-handed pitchers, a big weakness of Alvarez's in the past. Alvarez has hit a grand total of five home runs off left-handed pitchers in the last two years combined compared to 49 home runs against righties. The lack of production made him a platoon player at times last season, which obviously hurt Alvarez's value. If Alvarez can at least hit respectably against lefties in 2015 he'll be due for an even bigger bounceback than many already think he is going to make.
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer continued his strong spring with five innings, one run, six strikeouts and three hits, getting the win on Friday. Scherzer has now thrown 14 innings in spring, giving up only three runs and striking out a batter per inning. Scherzer is obviously a stud, and moving to the NL is only going to help the 30-year old. Scherzer is currently the third pitcher going off the board in 2015, and that seems about right. At fifteenth overall, he seems slightly underrated, as he should basically be Felix's equal in 2015. Nitpicking draft positions that high up seems silly, but Scherzer looks primed for a big 2015.
Justin Smoak
Smoak went 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Friday, but is still just slashing .129/.229/.323 for the spring. Smoak is a player that is only going to draw looks in unbelievably deep leagues, or AL-Only leagues, and even then he is questionable. Despite a nice prospect pedigree, Smoak is a .224 career hitter, and has never topped 20 home runs in a season. The move from Seattle to Toronto alone has been enough to generate a bit of deep league sleeper buzz, but Smoak has a career HR/FB rate of 11.5 percent, which isn't likely to be much higher in Toronto. Smoak started hitting the ball on the ground more often in 2014, and doesn't have a spot in the staring lineup. Smoak doesn't deserve a look in 2015.
Michael Cuddyer
Despite being rated by many as one of the worst deals of the offseason, the Mets have to be loving what Cuddyer has been showing the team in Spring Training so far. Cuddyer hit his fourth home run of the spring on Friday, going 2-for-3 with two RBIs on the afternoon. Cuddyer is hitting .333 and slugging .852 this spring, and has fantasy-thinking folks starting to wonder if he could be back in 2013 form. Proceed with caution, however. Cuddyer reads like a stereotype for every fantasy baseball warning: Don't get sucked in by a few good weeks in Spring Training; don't trust the 35-year old (turning 36 in a week) coming off of injuries; moving from Coors Field to Citi Field will put a serious dent in his power numbers, the list goes on and on. Cuddyer's HR/FB rates in Colorado were through the roof (18.2%, 16.9%, 22.7%), which masked the fact that his actual power was waning. Sure, the hot start to Spring Training is nice, but once the sample size gets bigger, the numbers get scarier. The fact that he is in the same tier as Khris Davis is ridiculous.
Curtis Granderson
A different Met outfielder, I am far more bullish on Granderson. The Grandy Man continued his red hot Spring Training on Friday, going 3-for-3 with a double, a run scored and two RBIs. While it would be hypocritical to cite this as a key factor in liking Granderson when it didn't help Cuddyer, it is simply reassuring to see him swinging a hot stick. Granderson is slashing .458/.548/.792 in spring, and maybe most heartening has more walks than strikeouts. The usual small sample size caveats apply, but with Granderson, this is a guy who is only two years removed from back-to-back 40+ home run seasons. Last year he sported the lowest HR/FB rate of his career at 10.1 percent, and still hit 20 home runs. That number could easily jump into the 25-30 range, and while his average isn't likely to top .230ish, that's not what you're drafting Granderson for. Granderson is currently being drafted after Cuddyer, but I'd put big money on Granderson having the better season.
Jose Abreu
Abreu had three hits on Friday, raising his average to .483 for the spring. Abreu has three extra-base hits this spring, but is yet to hit a home run. Although he has hit well this spring, there are some definite signs that Abreu may not be able to produce at the same level as he did last season this year, in 2015. Abreu saw an inflated BABIP and HR/FB rate drive both his lofty average and high home run totals. His line drive rate was solid in 2014 at 23.3 percent, but a .356 BABIP is almost certain to regress towards the mean a bit this year, likely bringing Abreu's average just below .300 along with it. Abreu's 26.9 percent HR/FB ratio was also off the charts lucky, and likely means that even if he stays healthy for the full year this season, he is likely to fall short of last year's 36 home run total. .290 with 30 home runs seems reasonable, but means Abreu may be going a bit early in drafts this spring.
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