Looking for Detailed Prospect Reports in 2004, become a member today.

2003 Prospect Central: Volume Ten - By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at some prospects who were recently called up to the big leagues. 

DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP

Organization: Florida Marlins

Acquired: Chicago’s 8th round pick in 2000 draft; traded to Florida in Matt Clement deal in 2002.

Throws: Left

DOB: 1-12-1982

Dontrelle Willis is an extremely intriguing pitching prospect.  Just look at those minor league numbers:  2.98 ERA, 1.83 ERA, 1.80 ERA, 1.49 ERA – they speak for themselves.  Yet, he has posted those extraordinary numbers without extraordinary strikeout totals.  And his lack of big strikeout numbers have come despite Willis actually having dominating stuff. 

In addition to that, Willis has one of the strangest pitching motions in recent memory.  It is very deceptive to hitters, but immediately brings up thoughts of future arm surgeries.  The good news in that regard is that he no longer has to worry about being left out there to pitch until his arm falls off by Jeff Torborg, who was fired by the Marlins right after he shredded A.J. Burnett’s right arm.

While Willis’ minor league K rates have never been overly impressive, his walk rates and home run rates have always been excellent.  He walked only 24 batters in 158 total innings last year, which is a remarkably low total for a 20 year old pitcher.  The previous year, he walked just 19 batters in 94 innings.  And for his entire minor league career, he has a 259/60 strikeout/walk ratio, which is superb for a young pitcher (or an old pitcher, for that matter).  He has also allowed just eight career homers in 311 minor league innings.  Those two things – limiting walks and homers – are two of the three things that are essential for pitching success and Willis’ excellence in both areas is the reason why he can dominate without having dominant strikeout numbers.

Willis had only 36 career innings above Single-A when the Marlins called him up a few weeks ago.  Considering the recent problems/controversies Florida has had with their young pitchers, it is a little surprising that they would call up their best remaining pitching prospect after he spent a little over a month above Single-A.  On the other hand, Willis has pitched very well in the major leagues thus far.  In five starts, he has a 3.72 ERA in 29 innings.  The most impressive aspect of his pitching thus far has been his huge strikeout numbers.  He has 34 Ks in those 29 innings, which is surprising for someone who struck out just slightly over seven batters per nine innings in Single-A last year.  Willis even added in his first career major league homer on Saturday, bringing his career hitting line to .182/.250/.545!

I don’t expect him to continue K’ing a batter per inning and I think he and the Marlins would be better off if he went back to the minors for a little while, but Willis has a very bright future and his first taste of the big leagues is certainly very encouraging.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B

Organization: Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Acquired: Signed as an un-drafted free agent out of Dominican Republic by Cincinnati in 1998; traded to Seattle in Ken Griffey Jr. deal in 2000; traded to Tampa Bay in 2002.

Bats: Right DOB: 1-26-1980 

Way back in 2000, Antonio Perez was a key part to the package the Reds sent to Seattle for Ken Griffey Jr.  At the time, Perez was one of the top middle-infield prospects in all of baseball.  He had a very good first season in the Seattle organization in 2000, hitting .276/.376/.527 with 17 homers, 36 doubles and seven triples – as a 19 year old.  Those numbers at such a young age make it easy to see why he was so highly thought of.

Then, a funny thing happened.  Perez was one of many players who saw their ages change when they re-entered the United States from various countries, in what is usually referred to as “Age Gate.”  In Perez’s case, he aged 18 months and went from a 19 year old dominating much older competition, to just another 21 year old that had a nice season in Single-A.  He still put up the same numbers, but two years for a young prospect in immensely important.

Nevertheless, he was still a very good prospect, even after “aging.”  Then, he was limited to only 21 at bats in 2001 because of a broken wrist.  He came back last year and had a very poor season, hitting just .258/.312/.333 before missing two months with an injury to the same wrist that kept him out of action in 2001.

Perez is now 23 and his status as a prospect is slowly drifting away.  He still has a chance to be a valuable major league player, but his days as a projected star are long past and, at this point, the Devil Rays (he came to Tampa as part of the Lou Piniella deal) are probably just hoping he can become a useful player at either second base or shortstop.  Perez got off to a nice start at Double-A this year, hitting .272 with a .423 on-base percentage and was then promoted to Triple-A, where he hit .273 and slugged .568 in his first 44 at bats.  He got a call-up with the Devil Rays and made his major league debut on May 14th against the Blue Jays.

With Marlon Anderson and Rey Ordonez in place as the middle-infield starters, the Devil Rays aren’t exactly stocked with great talent at second base and shortstop at the major level, so Perez can definitely work his way into their plans.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: New York’s 24th round pick in 1997 draft.

Bats: Right DOB: 9-27-1976

Jason Phillips has been on a yo-yo between Triple-A Norfolk and the Mets all season long.  They first called up him when a few of their pitchers started the season on the disabled list.  He was later sent back to Triple-A and was called back up in the middle of April, before being sent back down again a week later.  Then, when Mo Vaughn went on the disabled list, the Mets recalled Phillips yet again and played him a little at first base.  That lasted for about a week and he was sent back down to Norfolk yet again.  Then, when Mike Piazza went on the disabled list, Phillips got the call once again.  Piazza is out for a while and Vaughn may have played his last game, so it appears as though Phillips can finally unpack his suitcase and make himself comfortable in the major leagues.

Phillips is a catcher, but the Mets have been playing him at first base quite a bit with Vaughn out.  His defense there is a little rough, which is to be expected from someone used to squatting for nine innings with a mask on.  Offensively, Jason Phillips is a pretty good hitter.

He hit .282 with 13 homers and 22 doubles in just 323 at bats at Triple-A last season, after hitting 13 homers and 23 doubles between Double-A and Triple-A in 2001.  Those are not great power numbers for a first baseman, but for a catcher they are pretty good.

Phillips turns 27 in September, so he’s a little old to be a serious prospect.  That said, he’s definitely ready for a job in the major leagues and New York’s injury situation means he’ll likely get a lot of playing time for the remainder of this season and he has a chance to work his way into a job for the future too.

There was some talk of Piazza moving to first base before his injury and now that he has severely injured his groin, it seems almost inevitable that he will begin the transition from catcher to first baseman.  When/if he does that, Jason Phillips would be an excellent choice to see a lot of time behind the plate for the Mets.  He is a solid defensive catcher with good pop, a decent eye at the plate and he has shown that he can hit for good batting averages.

Phillips isn’t a horrible temporary fill-in at first base, but his real, long-term value will come as a catcher, and I think he can be a nice surprise for the Mets if they give him a chance behind the plate.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

JASON YOUNG - SP

Organization: Colorado Rockies

Acquired: Colorado’s 2nd round pick in 2000 draft.

Throws: Right  DOB: 9-28-1979 

Colorado’s second round pick in the 2000 draft, Jason Young has progressed at a steady pace through the Colorado system, making his major league debut on May 12th against the Mets.  He’s definitely ready to pitch in the major leagues and should be a part of the Rockies for a long time.

Young has three solid pitches, although nothing he throws is overpowering or dominant.  He works his fastball in the low-90s, features a very good changeup and an effective curveball.  Young has had some injury problems in the past, so that is always going to be a concern.  However, he is big, strong, has good mechanics and appears to be the type of pitcher that can be a workhorse in the middle of a rotation.

He’s definitely not a potential ace, but he’s got #2 or #3 starter stuff and should have a very successful career.  That said, for fantasy purposes he doesn’t have much value because he plays for Colorado.  Even the best pitchers often post ERAs above 5.00 pitching half their games in Coors, so Jason Young probably isn’t someone you want to grab in a basic roto league.  If he ever gets traded from the Rockies, his fantasy value will go skyrocket.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

PAT STRANGE - SP

Organization: New York Mets

Acquired: New York’s 2nd round pick in 1998 draft.

Throws: Right  DOB: 8-23-1980 

Pat Strange has been talked about as one of the Mets’ best prospects for years now, but that has more to do with the quality of New York’s farm system than Strange’s potential.

Strange got off to a very good start in his pro career after the Mets drafted him in the second round of the 1998 draft.  He posted a 1.42 ERA at rookie-ball in 1998 and then followed that up with a 2.63 ERA in 154 innings at Single-A in 1999.  Since then though, he hasn’t pitched all that well.

In 2000, Strange won New York’s Minor League Pitcher of the Year Award, mostly on basis of his 14-4 record between Single-A and Double-A.  Looking beyond the wins and losses, which are not particularly useful in evaluating pitching prospects, Strange simply wasn’t that good in 2000.  He struck out only 113 batters in 143 innings (7.1/9 IP), walked 62 (3.9/9 IP) and posted a 3.97 ERA.

He has improved his control in recent years but his strikeout rate, which was never great, has dropped from his early pro days and appears to have settled right around 6.0 strikeouts per nine innings, which is poor for someone considered to be a good pitching prospect.

In 209 career Double-A innings pitched, Strange has a 4.78 ERA and a 142/82 strikeout/walk ratio, which is not good.  Prior to this year, he had 171 innings at Triple-A and had posted a 3.68 ERA with a 115/60 K/BB ratio.  This season, Strange began the year at Triple-A and pitched fairly well, going 3-1 with a 3.34 ERA in 30 innings.  Still, his K rate (6.0/9) was below-average.

The Mets called him up on May 10th and he has appeared in five games since, all out of the bullpen.  The results have not been pretty.  Strange has given up 11 hits (including four homers) and eight walks, on his way to surrendering 11 earned runs – good for an absolutely obscene 19.80 ERA.  Hitters are currently batting .440/.576/.920 off of him. 

It is not unique for a young pitcher to struggle at the major league level initially, but what Strange has done thus far borders on disastrous.  In addition to that, and perhaps more important for his long-term outlook, he has never posted good strikeout or walk rates in the minor leagues.

Strange is a big, strong pitcher and has pretty good stuff, but his actual results are not those of a pitching prospect who has been hyped as much as he has over the years.  At this point, I think his best-case scenario is probably that of a #3/#4 starter at the major league level or possibly a reliever.  He can be a valuable major league pitcher, but he’s never going to be a star.

Gleeman long-term grade: C+

Other recent call-ups discussed in prior editions of Prospect Central:

Lew Ford – Prospect Central: Volume Four

Freddy Sanchez – Prospect Central: Volume Four

Looking for Detailed Prospect Reports in 2004, become a member today.

Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

http://www.InsiderBaseball.com

Click here for details of our 2004 Member access package

Aaron Gleeman analyzes minor league prospects exclusively in the Fantistics Insiderbaseball.com member area.

Please feel free to inquire about any of our products: info@fantistics.com