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Prospect Central: Volume Twenty Two (2003)

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  Back in May (Prospect Central: Volume Seven), I identified my “Top 10 Hitting Prospects” in all of baseball for this season.  This week I will look at the hitters ranked 6-10 on that list, to see how they have faired so far this season and how that has impacted their prospect status.  Next week, I’ll tackle hitters 1-5.

10) JOSE LOPEZ – SS

Organization: Seattle Mariners

Acquired: Signed by Seattle as un-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 2000.

Bats: Right

DOB: 11-24-1983

Back in May, I ranked Jose Lopez as my #10 hitting prospect and said that I just had a “feeling” about him.  Despite a mildly disappointing season for Lopez, I still definitely have that same feeling about him and, although I don’t think he would still be in top 10, he is definitely still in my top 15 or 20.

One of the key things about Lopez, perhaps more important than even his actual performance even, is the fact that he is one of the youngest players in Double-A right now and has been one of the youngest players in every single league he has ever played in. 

When someone as young as Lopez (he doesn’t turn 20 until November) is able to hold his own at the Double-A level, it says an awful lot about his future potential.  There are many very good prospects who play well in Double-A at 23 or 24 years old – doing so before you turn 20 is a whole different story.

Beyond his youth, there are three major things I particularly like about Lopez.  First of all, he plays great defense at shortstop.  Lopez has soft hands and great athleticism, plus a cannon for an arm.  According to a Baseball America survey of Double-A managers, Lopez was voted to have had the “Best Infield Arm” in all of Double-A.

Along with the great defense, Lopez shows two major signs of future offensive prowess.  While he doesn’t have much plate discipline at this point, he does make tremendous contact, which gives me hope that the plate discipline and strike zone judgment will eventually arrive.  Lopez also has consistently shown very good doubles power, which is an excellent sign for future home run power development, particularly for someone as young as Lopez. 

After smacking 39 doubles in 522 at bats last year, Lopez has already hit 32 doubles in 499 at bats this season.  In addition to the impressive doubles totals, the home run development appears to have already started.  After hitting eight homers in 499 at bats last year, Lopez is on pace to more than double that total this season.

Holding his own in Double-A at 19, potentially great defense at a premium defensive position, showing great doubles power and rapidly improving home run power, making excellent contact at the plate, with decent strike zone judgment.  What’s not to like?  Lopez has taken another step closer to the major leagues this season and he remains one of the best middle-infield prospects in baseball.

Gleeman long-term grade: A-

9) JASON STOKES – 1B

Organization: Florida Marlins

Acquired: Florida’s 2nd round pick in 2000 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 1-23-1982

Jason Stokes has struggled more than any other hitter in my top 10 this season and any time a top 10 prospect struggles it is surprising.  That said, perhaps it shouldn’t be that surprising, considering Stokes had his 2002 season end early because of a wrist injury that required surgery.

Stokes’ performance this year contains several concerning things.  First and foremost is his massive strikeout total and his poor strikeout/walk ratio.  Stokes is a big-time power prospect and those guys tend to whiff a lot, but Stokes has struck out in 29% of his at bats this year.  Now, that is just slightly above his strikeout rate from last year (27% of his ABs), but Stokes has also walked far less often this season than last, and that’s not a good combination.

After walking in about 12% of his plate appearances last year, Stokes has walked in just 8% of his plate appearances this season.  And his strikeout/walk ratio has gone from 2.04/1 to 3.48/1.

In addition to the deterioration of his plate discipline and strike zone judgment, Stokes’ batting average is down nearly 80 points from last year, which is huge.  I will give Stokes the benefit of the doubt on his batting average more than I will his plate discipline though, because a wrist injury can impact your hitting a lot more than it can your walking.  Stokes got off to a horrible start this year (he was hitting in the .220-.230 range for quite a while) and has gradually brought his average up all year, which may be reason to believe the wrist was bothering him early on in the season.

Stokes’ power numbers are also down quite a bit this season, although that too could have been caused by the wrist problems.  Still, for a guy who may have played most of this year with a not completely healthy wrist (a huge part of someone’s power), 17 homers and 28 doubles in 428 at bats is pretty impressive.

I am definitely not ready to give up on Stokes yet and I am still extremely high on him as a player, but his prospect light has dimmed a little bit this season.  I still love the power potential and he should be given some slack because of his injuries, but the plate discipline must improve at some point.

Gleeman long-term grade: B+

8) MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B

Organization: Florida Marlins

Acquired: Signed by Florida as un-drafted free agent out of Venezuela in 1999.

Bats: Right

DOB: 4-18-1983

Miguel Cabrera was not very well-known at all heading into this season, partly because his numbers at Single-A last year were not overly impressive.  However, he was extremely young for the level of competition and he showed amazing doubles power – two of the main things I look for in a young hitting prospect.

Back in May, I said to “keep an eye on this guy, because if he keeps hitting like this, he’s going to be getting a lot of attention very soon.”  And boy has he!

After absolutely destroying Double-A to the tune of .365/.429/.609 early in the season, Cabrera was called up to the Marlins and is now their starting left fielder.  Despite being just 20 years old and smack dab in the middle of a pennant race, not to mention playing a position he rarely played before (he was a shortstop and then a third baseman in the minors), Cabrera is doing extremely well in his rookie season.

He is hitting .269/.329/.482 through his first 53 major league games and has shown impressive power and surprisingly decent plate discipline.  Cabrera has eight homers, 12 doubles and three triples in just 197 at bats and has managed to walk 18 times in 213 plate appearances, which is pretty good for a free-swinging 20 year old rookie.

I have almost zero questions about Cabrera’s offense, which I think will eventually be very special, perhaps very soon.  I do have some questions about his defense, particularly which position the Marlins have him playing in the long-term plans.  Cabrera is considered a good defensive third baseman, but he is currently blocked there by Mike Lowell.  If Lowell is traded, Cabrera will no doubt take over the job.  If Lowell is retained however, Cabrera appears to be a fixture in left field, which I think is a mistake for the Marlins in that it lessens his potential value.

A great hitting third baseman who can play good defense is a lot more valuable to a team than a great hitting left fielder who does the same.  Whatever happens though, Cabrera’s bat will be plenty valuable for a long, long time.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

7) JEFF MATHIS – C

Organization: Anaheim Angels

Acquired: Anaheim’s 1st round pick (33rd overall) in 2001 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 3-31-1983

Jeff Mathis is often lost in Joe Mauer’s shadow when it comes to talking about great catching prospects and, although he is not quite at Mauer’s level, he has established himself as one of the elite prospects in baseball.

I was very high on Mathis after his great season last year in Single-A, when he hit .287 and smacked 41 doubles, all while playing great defense at a premium defensive position.  Oh, and he did all that at the age of 19.

This year, Mathis started in Single-A and dominated, both offensively and defensively.  He hit .323 in 378 at bats and some of those many doubles from last year began turning into homers, as he smacked 11 homers in 98 games, more than he had all of last season.  Mathis also continued to lace doubles all over the field, hitting 28, which, combined with the homers, was good for a .500 slugging percentage.

Mathis was promoted to Double-A this month and, at just 20 years old, has been doing very well there.  In 16 Double-A games, he is hitting .286 with nine doubles and a homer.

The only area of Mathis’ game that hasn’t been tremendously impressive both this season and last season is his plate discipline, which is simply “okay” at this point.  He has walked in about 8% of his plate appearances over the last two years.  That’s not a bad number, particularly for such a young player, but it’s not as great as everything else Mathis does, at least not yet.

I really think that if it weren’t for Mauer, Jeff Mathis would be a household name right now - he’s that good.  He is potential a Gold Glove catcher who has the ability to hit for high batting averages with excellent power – both doubles and homers.

Gleeman long-term grade: A

6) CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Organization: Anaheim Angels

Acquired: Anaheim’s 1st round pick (13th overall) in 2001 draft.

Bats: Left

DOB: 2-22-1983

The only real “knock” on Casey Kotchman coming into this season was that he simply could not stay healthy and on the field.

After signing in 2001, Kotchman’s first pro season was cut short after just a handful of at bats, and injuries also cost him a huge chunk of last year.  When he is able to play, he has never had a problem hitting, but the injury bug has bitten him again this season.

Kotchman has been limited to just 47 games this year and missed over two straight months of action.  While it was a wrist injury in the past, it has been hamstring problems this season.

When healthy, Kotchman has done what he always has, which is hit.  He has a .355 batting average in 169 at bats this year and his power numbers are very encouraging as well.  After hitting just five homers in 288 at bats last season (with 30 doubles), Kotchman already has seven long balls this year.  He has also shown tremendous plate discipline, walking in over 13% of his plate appearances, while posting an excellent 26/14 walk/strikeout ratio.

Kotchman’s stock as a hitter has certainly not dropped at all, but his overall prospect status can’t help but take a hit, as would be the case with any player who just can’t stay healthy.  He’s still an elite status, but losing this much developmental time is never a good thing, although Kotchman is certainly young enough to overcome it.

Gleeman long-term grade: A-

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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