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2003

Prospect Central: Volume Fifteen

By Aaron Gleeman

Hello and welcome to Prospect Central.  This week I will look at five players who recently made their major league debuts.

CODY ROSS – OF

Organization: Detroit Tigers

Acquired: Detroit’s fourth round pick in 1999 draft.

Bats: Right

DOB: 12-23-1980

Cody Ross is the epitome of a solid, all-around prospect.  He doesn’t get much attention and his tools and numbers aren’t extraordinary, but he consistently turns in good performances and does a lot of things well.

Ross was Detroit’s fourth round pick in 1999 and has moved up the organizational ladder one step at a time since then.  Rookie-ball in 1999, low Single-A in 2000, high Single-A in 2001, Double-A last year and now Triple-A this season.  The fact that he hasn’t been pushed more aggressively despite solid performances in an indication that the Tigers don’t think that highly of him, or at least not enough that he plays a large role in their long-term plans.

Defensively, Ross is very good at in either left or right field and can play a passable center, although he would likely be stretched there for extended periods of time.  As a corner outfielder, he certainly doesn’t project as a star, but his power, plate discipline, speed and defense are all in the “above-average” range and, together, could make him a very nice everyday LF or RF.

The one big question I have with Ross is whether or not he will hit for enough batting average to be an everyday corner outfielder.  In his four full-season stops, he has batting averages of .267, .276, .280 and .258 (so far this year).  Guys that hit in the .260-.280 range in the minor leagues tend not to have a ton of success in the major leagues.  On the other hand, Ross is young enough that he can still make significant improvements and his power has always been an asset.  He smacked 50 extra-base hits in just 105 games last year and 54 XBHs in 127 games in 2001.  So far this year, in 81 games before being called up, Ross had 33 XBHs, which ranked fifth in the International League (AAA).

Ross’ plate discipline could use a little work.  He walks a fair amount but that, combined with his relatively low batting averages, causes his on-base percentage to be pretty low (~.340 for his career).

Cody Ross doesn’t project as a star player, but he’s the type of guy that does a lot of things well and the type of player that a team can win with.  If he could handle centerfield on a regular basis, he’d be much more highly thought of.  As it stands, he projects as a definite major league player, the only question being whether or not his bat can carry an everyday corner outfield job.

Gleeman long-term grade: B-

DAN HAREN – SP

Organization: St. Louis Cardinals

Acquired: St. Louis’ second round pick in 2001 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 9-17-1980

The Cardinals’ second round pick in 2001, Dan Haren has performed well at every stop along the way and is now almost universally recognized as St. Louis’ top prospect.  He’s also in the majors just two years after being drafted out of Pepperdine.

Haren made his pro-debut in Single-A in 2001 and had an incredible 57/8 K/BB ratio in 52 innings.  He continued to post awesome K/BB ratios between two levels of Single-A last year, striking out a combined 171, while walking just 31.  Looking at his numbers from last year, the thing that pops out, aside from his great K/BB ratio, is the fact that he threw a ton of innings. 

Haren made 28 starts last year, which is certainly an acceptable number.  The amazing thing is that he threw a total of 194 innings in those 28 starts, an average of nearly seven innings per start.  To put that into some context, the average major league starting pitcher is averaging 5.95 innings per start in 2003.  Seven innings per start is a ton of innings for a veteran major league pitcher, for a 22 year old prospect, it is an incredibly high total.

Such a heavy workload at such a young age is concerning and Haren did noticeably tire at the end of last season.  The larger issue would be the long-term effects, which won’t be known for years.  Matt Morris, a big-time St. Louis prospect from years ago, threw 175 innings in his second pro season and then 212 the next year, before blowing out his elbow, causing him to miss all of the 1999 season.  That’s not to say Haren is headed for the same fate, just that it’s a concern and worth keeping an eye on.

Haren’s actual performance thus far has been tremendous.  His strikeout rates are not incredible, but he has amazing control which, along with his solid K rates, makes for great K/BB ratios.  His “stuff” is not overpowering and, along with his relatively modest K rate, suggest that he is unlikely to become an “ace” starter, but he has a good shot at becoming a solid #2/#3 guy.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

JIMMY JOURNELL – SP

Organization: St. Louis Cardinals

Acquired: St. Louis’ fourth round pick in 1999 draft.

Throws: Right

DOB: 12-29-1977

The closer at the University of Illinois, Jimmy Journell had Tommy John surgery prior to the 1999 draft.  The timing and general “unknown” related to the injury scared a lot of teams away from Journell, who had been projected as a first rounder.  The Cardinals snatched him up in the fourth round and his prospect star grew extremely bright almost immediately.

Journell made his debut in 2000 and went 1-0 with a 1.97 ERA in 32 innings, almost entirely as a reliever.  He spent 2001 as a starter and had a great year, going 14-6 with a 2.50 ERA in 26 starts.  He posted a great 156/42 K/BB ratio and found himself as St. Louis’ top prospect and one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball.

While his numbers from last season are solid, Journell had some more injury concerns.  First, he had to have surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow prior to the season, and then, he missed a significant amount of action during the year with a shoulder problem.  The fact that he was a college reliever and, more significantly, that he had such a serious injury in his past, makes every injury a serious concern with Journell and continuously call into question durability issues.

After spending some of this season in the rotation, Journell has been primarily a reliever in Triple-A.  He has appeared in a total of 27 games, seven as a starter and 20 as a reliever.  His ERA is a little bloated and, while his K rate and K/BB ratio are still okay, they are down from his previous levels.

The general consensus seems to be that the Cardinals would prefer Journell be a starter, but that his injury concerns may force him into a bullpen role once again.  Journell has the stuff to be a dominant pitcher wherever he goes, but the key will be staying healthy.

He’s worth a serious look in a keeper league, if for no other reason than the chance he may eventually become a closer.  Keep an eye on the K/BB ratio, because it’ll likely tell you if he’s 100% of not.

Gleeman long-term grade: B

MIKE GALLO – RP

Organization: Houston Astros

Acquired: Houston’s fifth round pick in 1999 draft.

Throws: Left

DOB: 3-18-1978

Houston’s fifth rounder in 1999, Mike Gallo began his pro career as a starting pitcher, but moved to the bullpen full-time in 2001 and has had a great deal of success there.  After posting ERAs of 5.85 and 4.86 in his first two pro seasons, Gallo had a 3.84 ERA in his first year as a full-time reliever and followed it up with a sparkling 1.83 ERA last year.

This season, Gallo started out at Double-A, pitched 20 innings with a 1.37 ERA and a 22/6 K/BB ratio and was quickly promoted to Triple-A.  Once at Triple-A, he continued to pitch very well, posting a 2.08 ERA in 17 innings, before the Astros called him up to the majors.

As a starter, Gallo’s K rate was sub par.  Since his move to the bullpen though, he has been missing a lot more bats.  He K’d 7.2 per game in 2001 and upped that all the way to 9.5/9 IP last season.  Combined between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he had 33 Ks in 37 innings (8.0/9 IP).  In addition to solid K rates, Gallo has also done a nice job keeping the ball in the ballpark (only 11 homers in his last 209 innings pitched) and has shown decent control.

He’s a lefty, he can strike some people out and his ERA has been under 2.00 lately, so he’s got a good shot of finding a spot in the bullpen, whether with the Astros or someone else.  I don’t think he’ll ever be anything special, but Gallo can certainly be a valuable reliever at the major league level.

For right now, he’ll likely be asked to step into the role of second lefty in Houston’s pen, behind closer Billy Wagner - a role previously held by Nate Bland.  It is an important role, particularly because the other top Houston relievers are all righties (Octavio Dotel, Brad Lidge, Ricky Stone, Peter Munro, etc).

Gleeman long-term grade: C

NATE BUMP – SP

Organization: Florida Marlins

Acquired: San Francisco’s first round pick (25th overall) in 1998 draft; traded to Florida in Livan Hernandez deal in 1999.

Throws: Right

DOB: 7-24-1976

Nate Bump was the Giants’ first round pick back in 1998 and had a very impressive pro debut.  He went 6-1 with a 1.54 ERA between two levels of Single-A in 1998 and then moved up to Double-A Shreveport in 1999 and had a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts.  The Giants then dealt him to the Marlins along with Jason Grilli for Livan Hernandez in the middle of the 1999 season.  Hernandez went 3-3 with a 4.38 ERA for the Giants down the stretch in 1999 and then 42-42 for them from 2000-2002.  Meanwhile, both Bump and Grilli have struggled.

Since coming to the Marlins’ organization, Bump’s career has gone straight downhill.  After posting that 3.31 in Double-A with the Giants in 1999, he made eight starts for Florida’s Double-A team (Portland) in 1999 and went 2-6 with a 6.07 ERA.  He followed that up with a 4.57 ERA in 2000 and a 5.27 ERA in 2001 – all still in Double-A.  Then last year, in his fourth straight season pitching for Portland, Bump had a decent year, going 7-6 with a 3.38 ERA in 20 starts.

So far this year, it has been more of the same -  a high ERA, a low strikeout rate and generally an unimpressive overall performance.  The Marlins needed a bullpen arm though, so they called Bump up last week.  This could be his best chance at making a big league career for himself.  His minor league track record is uninspiring and he’s no longer young enough to be considered much of a prospect anymore.  The time to impress is now, although whether or not he gets an extended look is anyone’s guess.

Back in 1999, when the Giants and Marlins made that trade, both Grilli and Bump were considered very good pitching prospects.  The fact that neither of them has panned out as of yet and it appears as though they’ll be lucky to win 20 games between them in their careers is yet another of the endless supply of examples why a “pitching prospect” is a very dangerous thing.

Gleeman long-term grade: C-

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Archives: 

Volume 1  JERIOME ROBERTSON – SP COLBY LEWIS – SP KURT AINSWORTH – SP GARY KNOTTS – SP JOSH STEWART – SP  OSCAR VILLARREAL – SP MARK TEIXEIRA – 3B/1B

Volume 2  ERICK ALMONTE – SS  ROCCO BALDELLI – OF JEREMY BONDERMAN – SP  RICH HARDEN – SP AARON HEILMAN – SP JESSE FOPPERT – SP

Volume  3  COCO CRISP – OF ALEXIS GOMEZ – OF JOHN-FORD GRIFFIN – OF GRADY SIZEMORE – OF B.J. UPTON – SS HANLEY RAMIREZ – SS

Volume  4  JASON GRABOWSKI – OF/C/3B/1B AARON TAYLOR – RP LEW FORD – OF  JASON LANE – OF  FREDDY SANCHEZ – 2B/SS ROBB QUINLAN – OF

Volume  5  JEROME WILLIAMS – SP CLAUDIO VARGAS – SP CHASE UTLEY – 2B/3B JODY GERUT – OF JASON BAY – OF

Volume  6 GERALD LAIRD – C ANDREW GOOD – SP KIRK SAARLOOS – SP TODD SEARS – 1B WILLIE HARRIS – OF/2B JOSE REYES – SS

Volume  7 Top Ten Hitting Prospects

Volume  8 Top Ten Pitching Prospects

Volume  9 JOHNNY ESTRADA  – C BUBBA CROSBY – OF ROB STRATTON – OF JUSTIN DUCHSCHERER - SP ESIX SNEAD – OF CHONE FIGGINS – IF

Volume  10  DONTRELLE WILLIS - SP ANTONIO PEREZ – SS/2B JASON PHILLIPS – C/1B JASON YOUNG - SP PAT STRANGE - SP

Volume  11 NICK SWISHER – OF/1B ANDY MARTE – 3B PRINCE FIELDER – 1B BRAD NELSON – 1B/OF JUSTIN HUBER – C

Volume  12 DAVID KELTON 3B/1B/OF JHONNY PERALTA – SS/3B  ZACH SORENSEN – IF  MIKE NAKAMURA – RP  EDGAR GONZALEZ – SP

Volume  13  MATT KATA – 2B  FRANCISCO SANTOS – 1B/OF JOSE VALVERDE – RP  MARIO RAMOS – SP BO HART – 2B

Volume  14 DAVE MATRANGA – IF  RODRIGO ROSARIO – SP  BRANDON CLAUSSEN – SP  CARLOS VALDERRAMA – OF  CARLOS RIVERA – 1B

Volume  15 CODY ROSS – OF DAN HAREN – SP JIMMY JOURNELL – SP MIKE GALLO – RP NATE BUMP – SP

Volume  16 LAYNCE NIX – OF LUIS TERRERO – OF  EDWIN ALMONTE – RP  JASON STANFORD – SP CHRIS MEARS – RP

Volume  17 ALEJANDRO MACHADO – IF VICTOR DIAZ – IF RYAN SNARE – SP WILL SMITH – OF ADRIAN GONZALEZ – 1B

Volume  18 RICH HARDEN – SP RENE REYES – OF RYAN WAGNER – RP MARK MALASKA – RP CHIN-HUI TSAO – SP

Volume  19 RYAN HANNAMAN – SP JOE VALENTINE – RP KENNY KELLY – OF PHIL DUMATRAIT – SP

Volume  20  GARRETT ATKINS – 3B  JIMMY GOBBLE – SP JON SWITZER – SP JOSH HALL – SP AARON LOOPER – RP

Volume  21 DERNELL STENSON – 1B/OF NEAL COTTS – SP J.J. PUTZ – RP JON ADKINS – SP

Volume  22  JOSE LOPEZ – SS  JASON STOKES – 1B   MIGUEL CABRERA – 3B  JEFF MATHIS – C  CASEY KOTCHMAN – 1B

Volume  23 JUSTIN MORNEAU – 1B JOSE REYES – SS  VICTOR MARTINEZ – C JOE MAUER – C  MARK TEIXEIRA – 1B/3B

Volume  24  JEROME WILLIAMS - SP  JEREMY BONDERMAN - SP JASON ARNOLD - SP CLINT NAGEOTTE - SP ADAM WAINWRIGHT - SP

Volume  25 GAVIN FLOYD - SP SCOTT KAZMIR - SP  FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ - RP RICH HARDEN - SP  JESSE FOPPERT - SP

Volume  26 RICKIE WEEKS – 2B  BOBBY CROSBY – SS KHALIL GREENE – SS EDWIN JACKSON - SP MATT RILEY - SP

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