Travis Hafner: Took the step up from a fantasy superstar (FPI: .82) to the elite (FPI: .91). The move up in class was fully supported by the growth in his underlying stats. His batting eye rose to .90 in 2006 from .64 in 2005 and his batting average against southpaws is in a four-year growth trend of .190/.244/.269/.321. Add in a four-year growth in OPS of .812/.979/.996/1092 and the makings of a career year are all here.
Grady Sizmore: As solid of a skill set that you can ask for from a 24-year old. The power has already arrived with 28 home runs and 55 doubles last year. With that many doubles and a fly ball rate that grew from 31% in 2005 to 47% in 2006, we should easily see the 32 home runs projected for him this year. The speed and the skill to steal bases are also already here, as he has had back to 22 steal seasons and was caught just 6 times last year. Can you imagine how much more damage that he could do if he could get his contact rate above the 80% level, but that is just nitpicking.
Nick Markakis: A great measure of the potential of a young player is to see if there was growth in the second half of their rookie season. A look at Markakis' 2006 splits is very encouraging. There was growth in his batting eye, .53/.67, contact rate, 82%/85%, and power 2HR/14HR. The second half batting average of .319 was helped by a 33% hit rate (or a BHIP% of .266), but he has the skills of a legitimate .300+ hitter. There also may be 25+ home run seasons in his future, but not until he lowers his G/F ratio from last year's 1.75. Hey, he is only 23-years old, there is time for that. Buy, there is major upside here.
Corey Hart: Could be ready for power breakout. He has a three-year trend of improving power going back to the 2004 season in Triple-A. Check out the major gains in his major-league fly ball rate from a 2005 number of 22% to last year's 41%. A below average contact rate of 75% and batting eye of .29 in limited action last year hints at batting average downside. On the positive side, he has shown better ability in those two categories in the minors. Although he has showed some speed in the minors, don't count on him for steals as he was caught 8 times in 13 tries last year. Definitely worth a shot, he could pleasantly surprise.
Brad Wilkerson: Throw out last season, as shoulder problems plagued him from the beginning of the season until he decided to shut it down in August. The 15 home runs in just 320 AB show that even with an injured shoulder the power is still there. His pre-2006 skill set is one of a patient, power hitter, with batting average downside due to poor contact skills. If healthy it will be interesting to see what his left-swinging bat can do in homer happy Texas.
Rocco Baldelli: There is no questioning his speed and there appears to be some growing power in his skill set. What is hard to ignore is the poor batting eye (.22 in 2006) and pedestrian contact rate (81% in 2006). What is even scarier is that he posted a .13 batting eye in the second-half of last year. That is Angel Berroa territory! A high hit rate of 36% artificially inflated his 2006 batting average of .311 and a high ground ball rate of 52% will limit potential gains in the power department. Let someone else take the risk, there are a lot safer choices of fantasy players in his FPI range of the 70's for the fantasy $'s that he will command.
Terry
Mar 7, 07 at 11:20 AM
Don't you think Juan Rivera's projections are a bit high? I just did my draft and wasn't studied up like I normally am. I ended up drafting Rivera in the 11th round (keeper league) because he was the next guy on the Fantistics board (and was for at least 3 rounds before I picked him).
Then I was quickly scoffed at because of the likeliness that he'll be out through mid-year. That was a bit disheartening for a guy that has leaned so hard on Fantistics to win our money league 2 of the last 3 years.