Tom Gordon: All that talk about Brett Myers becoming the closer was all just smoke. Despite being 39 years old, Gordon's 2006 numbers of a 10.4 K/9 and a 3.4 BB/9 are still in the upper tier of closers. His disaster second half, ERA of 5.02, could be attributed to his FB% rate climbing to 38%, with a few too many of them leaving the park. Expect Gordon to return to his ground ball inducing ways, 53% in 2005 and 48% in the first-half of 2006. Don't be afraid to bid full value on Gordon this year.
Todd Helton: If those in your league have soured on Helton, it could create a buying opportunity. Outside of the drop in power, which could be attributed to injuries, his other skills, high contact rate and strong batting eye, have remained intact. He is also having a find spring batting .405 in 42 AB.
Kelvim Escobar: If Escobar's back problems cause him to slip in your draft, use it to your advantage. His 2006 numbers of a 7.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 1.30 GB/FB ratio make up a very solid skill set. Add in that his K/9 has been between 8.0 and 9.8 the previous four seasons. If his health permits and the K/9 gets back up to the previous levels, he can be an elite starter.
John Patterson: Patterson was on the verge of stardom last year, until forearm problems eventually led to surgery. When he did pitch last year, he sported the kind of numbers, 9.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, which suggest it could all come together for him this year. The 54% fly ball rate would be a concern in many places, but not in Washington. RFK is perfectly suited for a fly ball pitcher.
Daniel Cabrera: From the first-half to the second-half of last season, with a stint in Triple-A included, Cabrera's control went from atrocious, 7.8 BB/9, to merely wild, 4.4 BB/9. In 24 innings this spring he is sporting a nice 2.62 ERA and a very healthy 23 K's. The 10 walks show that he is not over the hump with his control. While there is some major upside here, there is also some major risk.
Ryan Theriot: It is looking more and more like Lou Piniella will have to find some room in the line-up for Theriot. Theriot's game is speed and he has the skill set, 2006 numbers of a 87% contact rate, 50% GB%, and a .94 batting eye, to get on base to put that speed to use. In just 53 games last year, he swiped 13 bases in 15 attempts. He is tearing it up this spring with a .375 batting average and 6 SB in 64 AB. He makes for a great play in NL-only leagues and could emerge as a cheap speed source in mixed leagues.
Edwin Jackson: Considering that Jackson was out of minor league options, he was sticking with the Rays no matter what. But his spring performance impressed the Rays' brass enough that he was named the fifth starter. His K/9 of 6.7 and GB/FB of 1.42 last season shows that there is potential in the 23-year old arm. However, the 6.2 BB/9 shows that there is also some work to be done. He has looked good this spring with 18 K's in 19.2 innings, but the 9 walks are still a little too high. Hold off on him for now.
Jorge Cantu: As if Cantu didn't have problems with his bat and injuries, now his glove will potentially limit his playing time. The Rays have been using him at DH after some poor performances in the field. Some remember his breakout 2005 season of 28/117/.286 and are speculating on a comeback season after an injury-marred, subpar 2006 season of 14/62/.249. If a player is going to thrive with his poor batting eye, .29 in 2006, he will need either a high contact rate, his slipped from 86% in 2005 to 78% last year, or some series power, which abandoned him last year. It is hard to believe that he will DH over Jonny Gomes or Greg Norton. With playing time issues there is too much risk to pay for comeback season.
BJ Upton: Upton is the most likely beneficiary of Cantu's problems. He has also had his problems in the field, at third base and shortstop, but has handled second base very well this spring. The drop in power over the last few seasons is a bit worrisome for a 22-year old player whose power should be in the growth stages. If he gets regular playing time, the area where Upton can really contribute is speed. IN 4 minor league seasons, Upton has stolen 150 bases. The 56 caught steals is of some concern, as it is much harder to run on major league catchers, but as he matures, his technique should improve. Without the power, he will have to make better contact, 77% last year in 175 AB with the Rays. He has a very good chance of seizing the second base job and makes a good spec for the SBs that he can contribute.
Dan Johnson/Erubiel Durazo: Dan Johnson will likely miss up to three months after he was diagnosed with a torn cartilage in his left hip. This leaves the possibility that Erubiel Durazo could be the starting first baseman. He is having a good spring, batting .310 with 2 HR and 14 RBIs in 42 AB and owns some good skills from the past. But you have to wonder why three teams had him in Triple-A last year, yet none promoted him. Two of those teams, the Yankees and Rangers, would have seemed tailor-made for his left-handed bat.
Rafael Furcal: Furcal, who has been nursing a sprained left ankle, will likely begin the season on the DL. He shouldn't miss too much time, perhaps only a few games, but lingering effects from the injury have to be a bit of a concern for a guy whose speed is a big part of his repertoire.
Kevin Kouzmanoff: Despite a recent hot streak by Russell Branyon, the third base job for the Padres goes to Kouzmanoff. In his major league debut with Cleveland last year, Kouzmanoff went 3/11/.214 in 56 AB. His high ground ball rate of 59% and moving to spacious Petco Park will limit his power. He shouldn't be more than a middle-the-pack type third baseman.
Dave Roberts: Last year Roberts showed what he is capable of when healthy. Appearing in a career high 129 games, he stole 49 bases, while getting caught just 6 times. That is some series speed! Roberts helps his cause with superb underlying skills, last season he had a contact rate of 88% and batting eye of .84. He also pounds the ball into the ground, 56% GB ratio last year, to take advantage of his speed. As long as he stays healthy, expect much of the same this year.
