Welcome to Prospect Central for Week #2! Today we look at a few
prospects who earned a spot on the major league team's Opening Day roster and
some that could have, and probably will before the summer is out.
Joey Votto -
First
Baseman - Bats Left - 09/10/1983
Joey
Votto should have been the Minor League Comeback Player of the Year in addition
to the Southern League MVP. After a very disappointing second season in A ball Joey dominated AA offensively.
Votto
is a pure slugger and that is the context in which you have
to look at his strikeout numbers. In that context, he does pretty well.
He doesn't have the shortest swing in the world but he
has incredibly quick hands - he can't be consistently busted inside - and he
will happily take the ball with power to left-center. His walk totals belie his plate command and
the respect he has earned among his pitching peers. And that dramatic jump in
his walk rate last year over 2005, while jumping a level, indicates he got a
little antsy while slumping in Sarasota and expanded his zone.
Joey
has some defensive development to accomplish but he showed some improvement in
spring training. He is considered a hard working
player and he can turn that work into results. Last year he decided he wanted
to steal bases and he swiped 24 despite not being blessed
with above average speed. Stolen Bases will not be a major part of his
big league game but he may provide more than the average first basemen.
His
strong work ethic is a gift because he has some things to accomplish before he's ready for the MLB portion of his career. One area of concern is his struggles against
LHP. Last year
he hit .262 vs/ LHP, 89 points lower than vs. RHP
with a luke warm OPS of .756, 312 points lower than vs. RHP.
The Reds rightly feel he needs to do some more growing and
returned him to the minors to start the year. He'll
be back at some point this season and he will eventually lay claim to first
base in
Long
Term Fantasy Grade - A
Year
2004 A-Potomac 84 .298
7 5 20
11 21 1 .385 .560
2004 A-Dayton 391 .302 28 14 72 79 110
9 .419 .486
2005 A-Sarasota 464 .256 25 17 83 52
122 4 .330 .425
2006 AA-Chatt 508 .319 48 22 77 78 109 24 .408 .547
Elijah Dukes -
Outfield - Bats Right - 6/26/84
Imagine
a supremely gifted 6-2, 240lb linebacker with raw but developing baseball
skills and you have a good picture of what we are dealing with here. Add a
significant amount of innate contact skills and zone command you can see why
the Rays are so excited. The cherry on top here is above-average speed that
will lead allow him to scare double figure SBs at the MLB level.
He
fanned 83 times in 446 ABs in AA in 2005 but paired that up with 45 walks, a
number he almost matched in just 283 ABs in AAA last year while striking out
just 47 times. That is very strong plate command for a 22-year-old at AAA who can't control his temper. It speaks to a very tall ceiling
for this kid.
His
power hasn't shown up in his stat line yet, but it
will. It's really more a matter of whether Elijah can
wait for it. He tends to press for the big at the plate when any hit will do.
Other than his own impatience and his personal demons there's
really nothing, either physical or from a skills standpoint to hinder
Dukes.
Elijah
already has a couple of dingers with the Rays this season, and drawn a couple
of walks, and he seems anything but over matched so far. It's
easy to picture him middle of the Rays order eventually hitting 30 homers and
stealing 10-15 bases, but the hard thing to picture is where he'll be playing.
The Rays are stacked in the OF and so they had Dukes working at first base in
the AFL. He is also a good DH candidate. If his development continues and he
can handle his frustration and outbursts, the Rays will find room.
Long
Term Fantasy Grade -
A
Year
2004 A-Chston-Sc
163 .288 14 2 15 18 47
14 .368 .423
2004 A-Bakersf 211 .332 18
8 34 26 50 16 .416 .540
2005 AA-Montgom 446 .287 26 18 73 45 83 19 .355 .478
2006 AAA-Durham
283 .293 20 10 50 44 47 9 .401
.488
Matt Garza -
Starting
Pitcher - Throws Right - 11/26/83
It
took two drafts before Matt decided to sign a contract that brought him $1.35M
as the 25th overall pick in 2005. He pitched well enough in his first pro tour
but last season he rifled through the Twins system winning 17 games over 4
levels including 3 wins in the Majors.
There
were all kinds of good signs across his stat line last year in the minors
starting with sub-1.00 WHIPs, sub-.200 OBAs, K rates of nearly 9 per 9 and above, K/BB ratios of
nearly 5:1 ... It's as if our own Anthony Perri built a
pitching prospect in his garage workshop.
Unfortunately none of that translated in the majors last year
where opponents hit .301 off of him and he went 3-6, 5.76, 1.46 in 10
appearances and 9 starts. The thing is that he threw 186 IP last year when you
count his 50 in the majors and it is very likely he wore down at the end. Matt
weighs 185 but that's hung on a 6-4 frame so he comes
off as lanky.
Matt
spent last year tweaking his mechanics and fleshing out what is now a
four-pitch arsenal. His curve and slider are better than average and his change
is developing. He uses the change to keep left-handers off his fastball and he
has been effective. Nevertheless, his fastball is his bread and butter. He
cruises in the mid-90s and can pull out the occasional high-90s pitch when
needed.
Despite
his rough tour with the Twins last summer, it was somewhat of an upset that
Matt didn't start the season with the big club. The
Twins want him to screw down his offspeed stuff in
Once
he strengthen his command of his offspeed stuff and learns to trust his pure
stuff Matt will be something special. If Santana stays long
enough for Garza to mature Matt has the potential to eventually be the best #2
starter in baseball. Depending on how Francisco Liriano rehabs we may
eventually see Matt as the best #3 in a couple of decades. Hang on to Matt with
both hands in keeper leagues.
Long
Term Fantasy Value - A+
Year Team W L ERA WHIP
2005 A-Beloit 3 3 3.54 1.05 56 53 15 64
2005 R-Elizabethtn 1 1 3.66 1.04 19.2 14 6 25
2006 AA-
2006 A-
2006 AAA-Rochester 3 1 1.85 0.76 34 20 7 33
This is just a sample of Prospect Central.
There are more prospect breakdowns and over 100 player news
blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest
of today's player news by clicking here link:www.fantistics.com/baseball00/.
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