Prospect Central Week #4

This week we look at some of the hottest prospects around.   

Tom Gorzelanny and Adam Lind are in the majors now but the rest of these guys can best be described by Dennis Leary’s first catch phrase … “I think you hear me knocking.” 

God knows about The Rock, but I can smell what these kids are cooking …

Billy Butler – Kansas City
Outfielder – Bats Right – 6-1, 230 - 4/18/1986 

The Royals first round pick, 14^th overall in 2004 turned 21 this week and apparently tearing up AA is part of his birthday celebration. Last years Texas League Batting Champion and Futures Game MVP has done nothing but hit since becoming a pro.

What you have here is a tremendous power plant guided by the mind of a patient and thoughtful hitter. Billy hands haven’t caught up to his plus bat speed so he can still be tied up a bit inside but that won’t last long. It’s not a matter of a physical overmatch, once he wanders into the tall pitching trees and they challenge him inside he’ll gain the experience and adapt quickly. Butler uses the whole field with power. And he’s just as happy to hit the ball where it’s pitched. He’s a developed hitter with great skills and gifts and he will have no problem adjusting to the mental game at the MLB-level. 

Last year in 477 AA ABs in Wichita Billy hit .331 with a .384 OBP and .499 SLG%. He struck out just 67 times and drew 41 walks. That’s a strong 0.61 BB/K but you have to be careful about high caliber minor leaguers when their peer start treating them like Barry Bonds. MLB pitchers will not be intimidated and that ratio will not hold.

He hit 15 HRs and that’s ok, it’s just not a blow-you-away number, especially in the Texas League. He had 33 doubles and triples last year and what we want to see now is Billy using that body to turn some of those doubles into homeruns. This year in the PCL he’s starting to do that. 

Butler looks like a very skilled hitter but in the majors that just gets you a Sean Casey. If he can’t translate that skill into better power numbers his fantasy value will be limited. He certainly has the physical build to supply more power and he is barely 21. We just have to work on the assumption the power will come.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – A- 

Year Lvl  AB  OBP  SLG  AVG  HR RBI XBH SB BB  SO

2004 R   260 .488 .596 .373  10  68  35  5 57  63

2005 A   379 .419 .636 .348  25  91  57  0 42  80

2005 AA  112 .353 .527 .313   5  19  14  0  7  18

2006 AA  477 .388 .499 .331  15  96  49  1 41  67    

 

Tim Lincecum – San Francisco
Starting Pitcher – Throws Right – 6-0, 170 – 6/15/1984 

There is a lot about Tim Lincecum that is interesting. The Washington product fell to 10^th overall in 2006 to a surprised and delighted Giants. They were probably a little less delighted when he won the Golden Spikes Award just before they sealed the deal on his first contract. That probably leveraged at least some of his $2.02M deal, but none of that will matter 36 months from now.

What I find the most interesting about him is his throw-back delivery which looks like something see in the 60s. He looks like something off of ESPN Classic. Tim would have been an even brighter prospect back in the 60s when the extra mound height would mitigate his borderline 6-0 stature (and 6-0 is generous, I’d like to do the test myself). Tim comes off the rubber with a twist like you would see from the cabled actors in a martial arts movie but his overhead delivery and long stride helps him pitch taller than he is. 

Tim throws in the mid-90s. His fastball could be more consistent but the low end is still comfortably in the 90s and he can hit 98 when provoked. He compliments that with what is already an exceptional curve that claws towards the clay. He has only been throwing a change in earnest for two seasons but it already shows good life and this year he’s working on a hard-slider. 

He is polished, mature, and controlled on the mound, a full-fledge pro pitcher just waiting for his time. 

Last year he threw just 31.2 IP, 27.2 of which came in high-A. He struck out 48 while walking 12 and allowing 13 hits (15.6 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, as if those numbers need converting)

In three AA starts this year he has yet to allow an earned run in 18.2 IP, striking out (are you ready?) 28 while allowing 5 walks and 9 hits (13.4 K/9, 5.6 K/BB, 0.74 WHIP). Nuff said. 

This one is for real, a true potential Ace. Tim is a must-have in all keeper formats. Knock down your mother to get him when he become eligible in your league.

Long Term Fantasy Grade A+ 

Year Lvl  W L   ERA  G  INN   H   K/9  BB/9  HR/9

2006 A    2 0  1.95  6 27.6  13  15.6   3.9   0.9

2006 A    0 0  0.00  2  4     1  22.5   0.0   0.0

Adam Lind – Toronto
Outfielder – Bats Left – 6-2, 195 – 7/17/1983 

The Jays 3^rd round pick in 2004 is the perfect example of the preferred path of a player’s power development curve. In 2004 in the New York Penn League Adam was second in the league in doubles (23 in 266 ABs) and second in extra base hits (40) and hit only 7 HRs (17.5% of his XBH). In 2005, in Hi-A, Adam led the league in doubles (42 in 495 ABs) and XBH (58) and hit 12 HRs (20.6%) … Last year between the AA Fisher Cats, and AAA, Adam collected 31 doubles and 54 XBH in 457 ABs … and had 24 HRs (44.4%).  He filled out, he started to lift the ball, and his homerun power came in. This is the kind of HR rate progress we look for in good young power hitters.

I got to see Adam a lot in Manchester last summer. Lind’s stance and swing has power written all over it. He stands a bit low and wide, and is very good at keeping his hands in and getting the fat part of the bat on the ball. 

Interestingly it is almost as if he cut down that swing when he made the jump to AAA last summer. He only struck out 18 times in 109 ABs (16.5%) as opposed to 87 times in 348 AA ABs (25%). He also drew 25 walks in AAA, two more than he drew in AA with 239 more ABs. That improved his AAA BB/K to 1.28 from 0.29 in AA. The drawback was that his power suffered also.

Adam hit just 5 HRs (3.3%) in AAA after smashing 19 in AA (5.4%) but his SLG% rose from .543 to .596.  Perhaps more telling, he went from a fly ball rate of 45.8% in AA to 9.1% in AAA. He was practically a different hitter.  The bottom line is that while he produced a .310 AVG in AA and a .900 OPS, he jumped a level and got better, posting a .394 AVG. (in less than one-third the sample, of course) and a 1.096 OPS. 

What I read from all of this is that he is capable of being selective and he likes to be aggressive when the situation calls for hit. He can succeed with more than one approach at the plate - the sign of an accomplished hitter.

It is hard to knock Adam as a hitter and his shortcomings in the field and on the basepaths don’t play into his fantasy profile. He might become a #3 hitter if he were on a small market team but in the AL East he looks more like and eventual #5 hitter. Adam will develop mid-twenties power, perhaps a touch more, and he will probably land between .280 and .295 in AVG eventually. His hurdle is being able to play defense well enough to stay in the lineup. Playing time opportunity will play a big role in his fantasy value. 

So far this year, with Frank Thomas on board as the Jays’ DH, Adam’s PT has been limited and so has his production. However, the injury to Reed Johnson should bring him some much-needed ABs.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B 

Year Lvl  AB  OBP  SLG  AVG  HR RBI XBH SB BB SO

2004 A   266 .371 .477 .312   7  50  30  1 24 36

2005 A   495 .375 .487 .313  12  84  58  2 49 77

2006 AAA 109 .496 .596 .394   5  18  12  1 23 18

2006 AA  348 .357 .543 .310  19  71  43  2 25 87