Welcome to another season of Prospect Central!
Here is where you find breakdowns of Insiderbaseball.com's Top 100 Prospects. Each week you can also check out our Prospect Central Spreadsheet with rankings and updates on our top 50 pitching and hitting prospects.
Every Sunday we'll look at a few prospects and get behind the numbers a bit, telling what we think is ahead. During the year I'll be looking at minor leaguers who are making their MLB debuts or knocking on the door to help you get a jump on your fellow owners. Here on Opening day I have done that with NL Rookie of the Year Candidate Troy Tulowitzki however this morning I wanted to get out a little bigger zoom lens and look at the core of what is a great group young players collecting in the low minors.
I have 5 guys below here who aren't old enough to drink but they are rocking and rolling a small town near you this summer. Go circle some dates on your local minor league team's calendar and take a look at the future. A sub - $10 ticket won't buy a live look at these guys for too long, so enjoy it while you can.
And enjoy Opening Day, especially you Cardinal fans!
Troy Tulowitzki SS - Col
Shortstop - Bats Right - 10/10/84
Troy will start the year as the Rockies shortstop and he will be an Opening Day contender for Rookie of the Year honors. At first glance you see a guy who is a fantasy "tweener"lacking overpowering speed or power but he climbed the ladder to the majors in just over a year and there are plenty of sign of growth potential.
Troy, the 7th overall pick in 2005, is a little short in the experience department which adds variables to the 2007 equation. His most relevant minor league sample is his 104 games in the AA Texas League last year. He hit .291 in 423 ABs with 46 walks against 71 strikeouts. That level of plate command (a 1.5 K/BB) is impressive considering he came to Tulsa with less than 100 pro ABs, and that patience is cooberated by his college numbers.
Troy's .843 OPS and .473 SLG% are good in light of the .762/.418 Texas League averages and of course playing in Coors will not be a limiting factor going forward. He shows his future power potential in his 34 doubles in 423 ABs in AA.
In his stint in Colorado last year he drew 10 walks and struck out 25 times in 96 ABs so he ported his plat command to the majors pretty well (2.5 K/BB). He had some contact issues however, hitting just .240.
Troy is fearless and didn't seem phased by being thrown to the AA wolves so quickly. He uses the field and he's already taking pitches the other way and can drive the ball to the opposite gap. But his lack of fear can make him reckless at the plate. He'll chase pitches and Troy hit just a combined .266 vs. RHP in 2006 so there's work to do there as well. He also has defensive shortcomings to clean up.
Right now Troy projects as a good offensive contributor and has the potential to work himself into a 5th slot type of hitter eventually. If that happens and he can remain at SS in the majors he will obviously present considerable value.
Long-Term Fantasy Grade - B
Year Team AB OBP SLG AVG R XBH HR RBI SB BB SO
2005 A-Modesto 94 .343 .457 .266 17 6 4 14 1 9 18
2006 AA-Tulsa 423 .370 .473 .291 75 36 13 61 6 46 71
2006 MLB-Colorado 96 .317 .291 .239 15 2 1 6 3 10 25
Cameron Maybin OF - DET
Outfield - Bats Right - 4/4/87
The paraphrase Navin Johnson in the Jerk ... All I can say is wow!
This 19-year-old stud-in-progress was the 10th overall pick in the 2005 draft. He went to single-A last year and did a very credible job hitting .304 with 9 HRs, 69 Rbi and 27 SBs in 385 ABs. He followed that up with a stellar post season and was arguably the catalyst to West Michigan's Championship run.
Cameron drew 50 walks last year but a lot of that can be chalked up to respect instead of plate command well have to see him reproduce that at the higher levels before we can chalk it up to patience. He also whiffed 116 times. That's clearly an area that needs improvement but he still managed a .304 average indicating extreme contact skills. Cameron is simply raw and keep in mind that he's seeing a lot of pitchers that are significantly older. Overall he more than held his own in first pro tour.
His .457 SLG% belies his 6-3, 200 pound frame but the 27 stolen bases are a pleasant surprise. His LHP/RHP split was relatively level which is another sign of the quality of his skills and he actually got better in close and late situations, including the post season, showing that he isn't easily rattled at such a young age.
All he did this spring was go to camp and hit .329 in 17 games prompting Jim Leyland to say that he "could probably play in the majors"now. Of course he won't. Cameron will start the year in single-A This is going to be fun.
This kid is a physical specimen who is already intriguingly capable at a young age with extremely raw skills. He has standout bat speed and plus power that still isn't close to peaking. If you are new to the whole prospecting game this is a good kid to track. His ceiling is nearly unlimited at this point. We'll all keep an eye on him.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Year Team AB OBP SLG AVG R XBH HR RBI SB BB SO
2005 R-Yankees 156 .382 .417 .314 30 6 3 25 22 15 14
2006 A-Charleston 319 .377 .420 .298 50 23 5 51 15 30 66
TOTALS: 475 .379 .419 .303 80 29 8 76 37 45 80
Fernando Martinez OF - NYM
Outfield - Bats Left - 10/10/88
Fernando did some pretty impressive things with Hagerstown as a 17-year-old tasting his first pro action. In 192 ABs he hit .333 with a .894 OPS and .505 SLG%. He fanned 36 times but drew 15 walks demonstrating adequate zone control and strong contact skills.
This past fall Martinez was the youngest player in the AFL and he hit .304 once he got past a rough (1- for -18) adjustment period.
His 119 ABs in the Florida State League (.193 with a .641 OPS) were just enough cold water to calm us all down just a bit. Hopefully it will be a healthy wake up call for him and help him focus and understand he has some work to do. Even in the struggles of those 119 ABs, Martinez held his plate command levels fairly steady and he still managed to hit 5 HRs.
Fernando has advanced hand skills and plate command for his tender age but he will have to make some gains against LHP this year as he hit only .222 across all levels in 2006 with a .639 OPS. He also has a tendency to press when things start to go badly but he's till a year and a half from his 20th birthday so we can cut him some slack there.
We don't have enough plot points to determine Martinez's speed and bearing but if you get a chance to watch the kid play you can't help but see visions of 20-15 and beyond even if the neither the power or the speed has really showed up in his stat line last year. He doesn't have the pure acceleration to physically steal a lot of bases so he'll need to hone his skills there to if he wants speed to be part of his game at the MLB level. He does have a physical frame (6-0, 185) that will carry more muscle which will help him become a powerful offensive force.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Year Team AB OBP SLG AVG R XBH HR RBI SB BB SO
2006 A-St. Lucie 119 .254 .387 .193 18 6 5 11 1 6 24
2006 R-Mets 4 .250 .250 .250 1 0 0 0 0 -- 1
2006 A-Hagerstown 192 .389 .505 .333 24 16 5 28 7 15 36
TOTALS: 315 .336 .457 .279 43 22 10 39 8 21 61
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