Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep - February 23, 2024

Kodai Senga, SP, Mets
Kodai Senga has been shut down with a moderate posterior capsule strain in his right shoulder. He is coming off of an impressive rookie year where he struck out 202 batters in 166.1 innings with a 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He had issues with walks, giving up free passes at an 11.1% rate, but his 29.1% K rate was able to offset it. He was being drafted as a high-risk, high-reward starter in the top 20 SP, but that will change after his shoulder injury. A specific timetable isn't yet known, but even if he comes back quickly, it will still be a huge setback. He will now miss all of spring training, which could lead to an especially rough comeback as he tries to get back up to speed. It's best to consider Senga as a lottery ticket injury stash once the first 45 SP are off the board on draft day.

Mitch Keller, SP, Pirates
Mitch Keller just signed a 5 year, $77 million contract extension with the Pirates. He looked like an ace for the first half of 2023 before crumbling down the stretch, ending with a 4.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 210 K in 194.1 IP. He had a much lower xFIP of 3.70 which suggests he got unlucky, and his ERA was massively inflated by four very bad starts in the second half where he gave up 7 or more earned runs. His ERA outside of those four starts was only 3.13. Keller has shown that when he is pitching at his best he has as much upside as anyone, turning in multiple starts of 12+ strikeouts. If he limits his blow-up outings in 2024 he should return top 30 SP value on draft day, despite being drafted outside of the top 40 currently.

Noelvi Marte, 3B, Reds
Noelvi Marte is getting a late start in spring training and is expected to make his debut on March 2. He suffered a hamstring strain in November playing in the Dominican Winter League, but he remains on track to be ready for Opening Day. In 35 games at the major league level in 2023, Marte slashed .316/.366/.456 with 15 R, 15 RBI, 3 HR, and 6 SB. He flashed an elite 29.1 ft/sec sprint speed, a max exit velocity of 115.6 mph, a hard-hit rate of 46.1%, and an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph. This mix of power, speed, and contact skills could see him potentially hit .280 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 2024, with upside for more. He should be drafted soon after the top 12 3B are off the board, as a low-end 3B starter or high-end CI option.

Spencer Strider, SP, Braves
Spencer Strider featured a new pitch, a curveball, in live batting practice recently. Already the number one pitcher for fantasy, an addition of a new pitch would further solidify him as the no doubt about it SP1. He struck out a league-leading 281 batters in 186.2 innings in 2023, with a 3.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His xERA of 3.09 shows that he could improve on that front in 2024, as well. Strider's lethal duo of his fastball and slider are unhittable at their best, as can be seen by his 36.8% K rate, 38.6% whiff rate, and 34.3% chase rate. Strider's only downside is that he tends to get hit hard at times, due to him relying on mainly just two pitches. He does feature a changeup that he threw 7.3% of the time but used it primarily against lefties. An addition of a curveball could give him another weapon against right-handed hitters that would let him improve on his already elite 2023 statistics. Strider is worth a late first-round pick in fantasy after the first tier of elite batters.

Zach Eflin, SP, Rays
Zach Eflin transformed himself on the Rays last season, and his underlying stats point to a repeat performance in 2024. He finished 2023 with a 16-8 record with a 3.50 ERA and 186 K in 177.2 IP. He rarely walks anyone (3.4% BB%), and balls he threw out of the strike zone were chased 34% of the time, placing him in the 95th percentile in chase rate. He limits damage with a high 50.4% groundball rate and a low 35.1% hard-hit rate and 85.5 mph average exit velocity. It's no surprise that all of this led to a 93rd percentile 3.02 xERA. He is currently being drafted as the SP23 in fantasy, despite being the SP4 last season. It wouldn't be a shock to see him finish as a top-12 starting pitcher once again in 2024.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates
Ke'Bryan Hayes has been a breakout candidate for years, but never delivered on expectations. His underlying metrics always showed exceptional raw power, but he hit the ball on the ground too much to use it. That finally changed in 2023, specifically in the final two months that saw him increase his fly ball rate to 41.5% and his pull rate to 35.4%. These changes led to him hitting 10 home runs in those final months, finally capitalizing on the power. His raw power looks as good as ever, with a 92.2 average exit velocity that ranks him in the top 7 percent of the league, and an exceptional 48.3 hard-hit rate. He also continued to provide stolen bases, although his 10 in 2023 was a downgrade from his 20 in 2022. He provides a good mix of power and speed at the 3B position, and a 25 HR, 20 SB season is within the realm of possibilities. He should be drafted as a top 16 3B for the season and is an excellent value later in drafts to fill a CI spot.

Jake Burger, 3B, Marlins
Jake Burger broke out in a big way in 2023, and he should carry over that performance into 2024. His .250 batting average and .309 OBP aren't great, but that downside is dwarfed by the 34 home runs he hit. They weren't cheap shots either, with Burger ranking towards the top of the league in all of his underlying power metrics. His .512 xSLG, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and 49.6% hard-hit rate placed him in about the top 10 percent of the league. His 16.7% barrel rate was good for the top 2 percent of the league, and his 118.2 mph max exit velocity ranked in the top 1 percent. He is currently being drafted in the 14th round as the 17th-best 3B off the board. It's rare to find a player with legitimate 40 home run potential that late in drafts, so he is definitely worth it at that price. Burger has the chance to be a top-12 option at the position by season's end.

TJ Friedl, OF, Reds
TJ Friedl had a great season in 2023, but he is unlikely to repeat it in 2024. His expected stats paint him as getting extremely lucky, with his .321 xSLG being .146 higher than his actual SLG of .467. His other expected stats tell a similar story (.289 xwOBA compared to .353 wOBA, .240 xBA compared to .279 BA). His 18 home runs were even 6 more than his expected total of 12, due to his minuscule 3.2% barrel rate and 27.6% hard-hit rate. The Reds have a very crowded roster with many guys vying for playing time, and Friedl could be benched quickly if he starts to struggle. He could be a decent source of stolen bases, but the downside is too much to draft him as a top 35 outfielder.

Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B, Royals
Vinnie Pasquantino was one of the most popular breakout candidates going into last season, but unfortunately, a torn labrum ended those hopes in early June. His .247/.324/.437 slash line doesn't look good, but it doesn't tell the whole story. In the first 29 games of the season, he slashed .279/.375/.500 with 5 home runs, which looked like the breakout we were all hoping for. It's possible his shoulder started bothering him before he actually went on the IL, and I think the first 100 games of his career are more indicative than the one bad month of May in 2023. He still put up an elite 11.9% K%, 17.4% Whiff rate, 37.8% Sweet-Spot percentage, and a .282 xBA. He is currently being drafted as the 18th-best 1B, but I bet he finishes in the top 12, especially in points leagues or leagues that reward OBP.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians
Josh Naylor had a true breakout last season but isn't being drafted like it. Despite only playing 121 games due to injury and hitting 17 home runs, he still managed to drive in a whopping 97 RBI thanks to a .363 batting average with runners in scoring position. Despite a high 39.5% chase rate, he only struck out 13.7% of the time. This strong ability to make contact fueled him to a .308 BA and a .295 xBA, which ranked him in the 95th percentile in the league. He is currently being drafted in the 11th round on average as the 16th-best 1B off the board. However, if he stays healthy he should be a lock to finish in the top 10 at the position.

Tyler Glasnow, SP, Dodgers
Tyler Glasnow was traded from the Rays to the Dodgers this offseason. In 2023, Glasnow pitched to a 3.53 ERA, 2.75 xFIP, and 1.08 WHIP. He was near-unhittable at times, posting a 35.3% whiff rate and 33.4% K%. Even when hitters made contact, the ball rarely went very far thanks to a 50.9% ground ball rate. On top of all of that, his 10-7 W/L record will probably improve now that he's on the Dodgers. A healthy Glasnow should easily finish as a top-10 fantasy SP, and he has the upside capable of landing him in the top 3.

Mitch Garver, C, Mariners
Mitch Garver signed a 2-year, $24 million contract with the Mariners this offseason. He is expected to be the full-time DH and occasional catcher when Cal Raleigh needs a day off. Garver is coming off of his best season since 2019, putting up a .270/.370/.500 slash line with 19 home runs in 87 games. He had a 12.8% BB and a 12.6% barrel rate, combining elite on-base skills and great power that is rare for a catcher. Expect Garver to be drafted as a low-end starting catcher in 12-team, one-catcher leagues, but he has upside that could see him finish as a top 5 catcher for fantasy.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
Bobby Witt signed an 11-year, $288.78 million contract extension with the Royals this offseason. The 23-year-old superstar is coming off of a season where he hit for a .276 batting average while putting up 30 home runs and stealing 49 bases. His expected stats looked even better, being a .294 xBA, .533 xSLG, and .369 xwOBA. His plus power combined with his MLB-leading 30.5 ft/sec sprint speed makes him one of the handful of players who are a true lock for a 30/30 season, and in Witt's case, that will more likely be a 30/40 or even 30/50 year. Expect Witt to be taken in drafts immediately after Ronald Acuna Jr., or at the latest third overall following Acuna and Julio Rodriguez.

Blake Snell, SP, Free Agent
As Spring Training is kicking into gear, Blake Snell remains a free agent. The reigning NL Cy Young champ is coming off of a 2023 season where he put up a 2.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He was elite at missing bats, putting up an 11.7 K/9 and a 37.3% whiff rate. His biggest issue was control, which led to a league-worst 4.95 BB/9. Saying he was lucky would be an understatement, with his xERA of 3.77 a full run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Snell's wild nature makes him a major risk in category leagues where ratios matter, and he should be drafted as a top 20 fantasy SP rather than a top 10 one.

Eury Perez, SP, Marlins
Marlins' manager Skip Schumaker shared that Eury Perez will have a to-be-determined innings guideline after throwing 91.1 MLB innings last season. He showed elite swing-and-miss ability on all of his secondary pitches with whiff rates of 47.7% (slider), 54.3% (curveball), and 46.2% (changeup). However, his fastball was hit hard at times, leading to an overall 89.9 average exit velocity, 10.7% barrel rate, and an extremely low ground ball rate of only 27.5%. Perez has true top-5 SP upside for fantasy, but the innings limit and hard-hit concerns should push him down draft boards. Expect to draft him as a top-30 fantasy SP in 2024.