This week’s closer’s
report centers around
For his part, Dempster has been effective
this season. He
has given up 10 runs in 20.2 IP but 8 of those runs came in two of his
18
appearances this year. Otherwise, he has allowed 2 runs in 19.1 IP
(0.93).
Ryan is striking out 9.1/9, a career-high rate if it holds and walking 3.4/9, a career low rate if it holds. Opponents are hitting .182 off of him and he’s working under the weight of an abnormally low 56.2% strand percentage, mostly due to those two outings. In short, Ryan has been fine as a reliever.
On the other hand … over the
last three years, Ryan has made
6 starts, going 1-3 with a 5.35 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and a .280 OBA.
I don’t see Lou’s logic here, but I don’t see these guys throw with the regularity and perspective that the Cubs staff does, and maybe that’s why I write and he manages.
Angel Guzman
has
always had compelling stuff, but he has yet to make a convincing case
that he
is ready for closer duties. Beyond his total lack of career saves,
Angel can
boast a 9.3/9 career K rate over 80.1 career IP. This year
he’s managing his
walks (2.2/9) but over his pro career his BB rate is 4.8/9. The K rate
is fine
but in terms of a closer, his BB rate is a bit uncomfortable.
Combine those walks with a .267 OBA this year (.291 career) and you are looking at a 1.27 WHIP in 2007 and 1.69 career. This season Angels has thrown ground balls at a 1.30 rate which is helping, but his career rate is just 0.93. Of course Angel has pitched better as a reliever in his short career (0-0, 1.35, .152 OBA, 1.12 WHIP in 13.1 IP) than he has as a starter (0-6, 7.39, .308, 1.87), but he also has a career OBA of .409 in the first inning of his outings (1.254 OPS) and a .325 OBA in innings 1-3.
The proposed move would weaken the end of
the bullpen to turn
a decent, battle-hardened, closer into an inadequate starter. Again, I
don’t
get it, but the fact remains that the Cubs are apparently planning for
Angel
Guzman to take over the closing role in a few weeks. If you are needy
for saves,
you must pay attention to this and store Guzman as a spec claim. I
remain
skeptical however and question whether this plan will come to fruition.
The Phillies watched Brett Myers leave last night’s game with a shoulder issue that could be major. Right now they are calling is a strained right shoulder but the oild light came on and Myers felt he had to shut down his engine immediately. We will hope for the best here but a DL stint seems likely. There is no timetable for Tom Gordon’s return currently so the closing situation in Philly has deteriorated in a committee situation.
Ryan Madson (7.4 K rate, 2.7 BB rate, .227 OBA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.21 GB in 19.1 IP) would seem to be the lead candidate here with Antonio Alfonseca offering up some closer experience next in line.
The A’s also have some issues at the end of their bullpen where Justin Duchscherer finally succumbed to his hip injury and was placed on the DL. Bob Geren says that Alan (Gulp) Embree will probably be his go-to guy until someone gets healthy in the A’s pen. Alan is a good guy, probably nice to animals, but he’s a typical third option and maybe he should be the 4th option. Alan has fanned a borderline (for closers) 6.5/9 with an average 2.3 BB/9 but opponents are hitting .305 off of him and he’s posted a 1.50 WHIP to this point. Left-handed hitters are hitting .323 off of him this year although he has a pretty even lefty/right split over the last three years. Jay Witasick and Kiko Calero seem like better choices as I noted last week. Calero in particular would make for a decent spec claim right now.
There is no timetable for
In KC, Octavio Dotel has returned from the DL and manager Buddy Bell says he will ease Dotel back into the closer’s role over the next week or so. Joakim Soria has done a good job on Dotel’s absence … hence the lack of urgency here … and he has presented the Royals with a viable option in their end game. He still may be good for a couple of more saves before Dotel resumes closing.
On Wednesday manager Fredi Gonzalez said
that Kevin Gregg will continue as
the
Marlins closer even after Henry Owens
returns from the DL. Gonzalez likes the veteran presence at the end of
the
bullpen and Gregg had been flawless until last night when he gave up an
unearned (but deserved) run in the 10th to take
the loss, but this
is a bit of an overreaction. Fredi needs to learn that you do not
commit to
anything publicly until you have to.
Gregg will be serviceable but he is not going to pitch this well forever and Henry is very close to being a viable long-term solution. Meanwhile Matt Lindstrom topped 100 mph twice in the last week, and is being used in 7th and 8th inning situations of late.
Henry Owens (rotator cuff) worked a rehab inning on Tuesday and he could come off of the DL as early as today. With Gregg holding court in the 9th these days, Henry will be eased back in.
