Alex Rios has done it quietly this season, but with his 9th HR of the year, is now posting a HR/AB of 18.8 and an OPS of .850. That's good for a decent FPI of 0.66, in-line with his preseason forecast of, you guessed it, 0.66. Actually, he's right in-line with his preseason projections in multiple categories. The two nice surprises for Rios is his HR rate which is slightly better at 18.8 than the forecast of 22.5 and batting eye of 0.62 compared to 0.39.
Two games in a row for Richie Sexson on the bench has to be frustrating for fantasy owners. His pitiful .162 average is the cause, giving manager Mike Hargrove an excuse to give Sexson a "rest"to try and figure some things out. The slugger's power potential was enough to keep him in the lineup, but now his playing time has been limited for a couple of days in a row. Even though he should be back in the lineup for Monday's game in Cleveland, you should probably keep him on your bench until he officially breaks-out of this terrible slump. A look at his numbers shows a ridiculous drop in his FPI (almost half of last year's production - 0.32 in '07 compared to 0.63 in '06). His power is way down as well, averaging just 1 HR for every 26.0 AB compared to 14.3 and 17.4 over the last two seasons.
Raul Ibanez was out of the lineup for the 2nd straight game on Sunday and it may not end there. He said his back is significantly better than it was Saturday, but there is still no indication he'll be back in the lineup for Monday's game. If you're setting weekly lineups, it might be safer to go with someone who will play everyday, although it is probably that Ibanez will be the majority of games this week. Perhaps his back woes are the reason for his drop in production in '07. We're all waiting for that big break-out week. He's only posting a 0.48 FPI this year, compared to 0.68 last year. The big drop has been his power, only 1 HR in 143 AB after posting 19.0 last season. His power should return, but a rate of under 20.0 is increasingly unlikely at this point. I think Ibanez is a nice buy-low option once he regains his health.
Kevin Youkilis' AL-only value is unquestionable, but his mixed-league value continues to increase as he puts up big numbers in May (I actually picked him up before the weekend and the move has paid solid dividends). For May, YOUUUUUK! is hitting .400 with a 1.105 OPS and an FPI of 1.03. His HR/AB is 17.5 and BB/K an even 1.0. For the season, his OBP is over .400 with an FPI of 0.80. The nice thing about Youkilis is his multiple position eligibility at the corners, giving you some lineup flexibility on off-day Mondays and Thursdays.
James Shields has baffled American League pitchers and decided to dish-out a piece of it to the NL on Sunday as well. Another quality start from the Devil Rays pitcher with a 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K performance. Its his 6th quality start in a row and is 7-for-9 this season in QS's. That's good enough for a 2.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, K/9 of 8.3, and K/BB of 4.8. Of course, he has only earned 3 wins, because of the atrocious Devil Rays bullpen, but that's uncontrollable. Shields' value continues to rise.
Alex Gordon has been anything but a fantasy rookie of the year candidate. But recently, he has shown some signs of breaking out. After all, its his performance from today that really matters at this point, isn't it? He has safely hit in 6 of his last 7 games and has shown some speed with 3 SB this month. Don't go crazy trying to pick Gordon up, but definitely keep an eye on him. He's a highly touted rookie for a reason - a player just doesn't forget how to hit overnight and he's a lot better than a .177 average. He's just off to a slow-start in his first couple of big league months. If he starts putting it all together over the next week or two, he could be a cheap grab that may be worth it for the long-haul.
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