Prospect Central - May 29, 2007

Jay Bruce – Reds
Outfielder – Bats Left – 6-2, 206 – 4/3/1987 

The Red’s first round pick in 2005 should be on everyone’s radar by now when considering top offensive prospects. Last year all Jay accomplished was the MVP of the MWL after leading the league in XBH and an appearance as the youngest player in the leagues All-Star game. One thing we don’t discuss often in Prospect Central is age vs. level. A player’s accomplishments at a given level have to be looked at through the prism of age and experience. Given the same numbers for that Jay produced last year, you give more weight to the 19 year-old in his first full pro season than you do the 21 year-old on his second tour of High-A..

Big, strong and accomplished as a hitter, Jay uses the entire field, with power. His swing is short and sweet. He can wait an extra beat to identify a pitch and still hit it with impressive power. That will only be augmented when his 6-2 frame fills out with 15-20 more pounds of maturity. Jay is also is very adept at keeping his hands inside allowing him to cover the entire strike zone. 

Of course, the strikeouts draw your eye and if you are interested in weaknesses, that would be one. Still, Jay makes contact, hits for average, and has held that skill despite moving up a level this year. Jay may be able to stick in centerfield but the hope is that he will fill out to a corner outfielder’s stature and move to right, taking advantage of his plus arm.

The 19 SBs from last season should draw your eye as well, but again, if things go as planned the speed portion of Jay’s game may diminish before he makes the majors. 

In addition to his tools, Jay is said to love to play and work on his game. The Reds were deliberate with him last year, keeping him in Low-A even when it was obvious he overmatched the league. This year he is starting at A+ and he is handling himself just as well there. It is unlikely the Reds will make him spend the year at this level. Expect him in AA by the ASB and keep close tabs on this developing All-Star.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A 

Seas Lvl  AB XBH  HR  BB   SO  SB   AVG   SLG    OPS
2006 A   444  63  16  44  106  19  .291  .516   .870
2007 A+  180  29   9  19   45   4  .344  .633  1.040 
 

Andy Sonnanstine - Rays
Starter – Throws Left – 6-3, 190 – Age 23 

Andy Sonnanstine's calling card to this point in his pro career has been command … and more command. The 23-year-old will get his fastball cranked to 91 on occasion, and his curveball is a just little flat and lacks bite, but Andy will change release points to give batters different looks. Andy had been a middle of the road prospect until he hooked up with pitching Coach Xavier Hernandez in Montgomery last year. Hernandez tweaked and polished Andy’s changeup, which brought his command of that pitch up to the same level as his fastball and curve. His new grip also gave his change some much-needed bite, making that a much more viable pitch.  In fact, his change is now his primary offering, and a more effective way to keep hitters off of Andy’s fastball. 

But back to his command … In 2005 over 181 IP in low–A, Andy struck out 178 against just 18 walks. He was not fazed by the jump to AA last year where he fanned 141 against 30 walks in 171 IP. If you are scoring at home, that is 352 IP over two seasons and he threw 125 IP with Kent State in his final season there. The young man seems to have a rubber arm and can carry a heavy work load, another aspect of his game which is very desirable at the MLB level.

So far this year at AAA his indicators have held against more experienced and sophisticated hitters, which bodes well for his ability to port some of that success to the majors. 

Andy is not my cup of team in regards to pitching prospects. I usually tend towards the power-arm types, but Sonnanstine is posting numbers like a power pitcher and he remains fairly dominant at AAA so far, again, like a power pitcher. The questions is whether he will be able to maintain a certain level of dominance at the MLB level or be limited but his natural “stuff” to getting by as a useful end of the rotation starter.

His baseball IQ is also very high. Andy learns, adapts quickly, and can figure out some solutions on his own. The Rays are justifiably getting excited about him and a “crafty” lefty is always nice to have on you staff to keep hitters off balanced in a series.

Andy bears watching and he could see some significant MLB action this summer.

Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-      

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA     IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 AA   15  8  2.67  171.0  7.4  1.7  0.7  .224  1.00
2007 AAA   6  2  2.30   58.2  9.2  1.8  0.9  .202  0.92

Dellin Betances – Yankees
Starter – Throws Right – 6-7, 185 – 3/23/1988 

Dellin Betances came into the 2006 draft with a offer from Vanderbilt in his pocket and an asking price of $1M for any team that wanted to draft him last summer. There were no takers until the 8^th round when the Yankees simply needed to take a chance and try to sign him. Betances got his $1M and the Yankees got a first-round talent for an 8^th round pick.

Betances cruises comfortably in the high-90s, but his best pitch is his curve, which presents as much as 12-15 mph separation from his fastball, making him very tough to read and react with. Dellin is also coming fast with his changeup, which shows good downward bite, but he needs to disguise his arm-action better. Dellin very young and overall his mechanics need to be cleaned up and simplified so he can repeat his delivery with more consistency.

Dellin will spend the next year of two installing his change and honing his mechanics. He’s is  a terrific athlete and a smart competitor, truly interested in getting better at what he does as quickly as possible. He is coachable, learns quickly and applies theory quite quickly.

It is very early in the game with this one but he seems fully capable of developing into an Ace-level pitcher. But we are looking a couple of years down the line in terms of fantasy impact.

Long Term Fantasy Grade - A 

Seas Lvl   W  L   ERA     IP  K/9 BB/9 HR/9   AVG  WHIP
2006 R     0  1  1.16   23.1 10.4  2.7  0.4  .175  0.90