This week my son and I attended the Eastern League (AA) All-Star Fogfest at Dodd Stadium in
Sergio Santos won the homerun derby prior to the game (much to the delight of a large contingent of Fisher Cats staff in attendance) and the guy in front of me turned to his friend, who is apparently his leagues commissioner, and claimed him on the spot.
The other two players I profile today were reader requests. I am surprised that Reid Brignac slipped through the Prospect Central net for so long, so … without further adieu:
Reid Brignac – Rays
Shortstop – Bats Left – 6-3, 200 – 1/16/1986
Reid blossomed in more ways than one in 2006. Physically he had an amazing growth spurt prior to last season that saw him add two inches to his height as he bridged 19-20 years old. His height and weight gain essentially matured him out of high-A except no one knew it until he shredded the level.
The physical growth potential he has left is a double-edged sword. He already sprays the field with his quick hands, taking balls where they are pitched, and he already lifts the ball with backspin. An extra 15 pounds would easily make him a mid-twenties power guy, but it might also move him out of SS where he would be a fantasy monster.
Reid is still a bit raw in the field and at the plate but he has strong skills and plus make up. He will have to work to become an MLB-level SS defensively and he still relies a bit too much on “see the ball, hit the ball” at the plate.
His first full tour at AA has been a bit of struggle this season because pitchers are finally asking him to be more aware of what they are trying to do to him at the plate. The good news is that he has cut his K rate while continuing to drive the ball. Contact has been a problem however especially against RHP. He is hitting just .210 against righties but he is also suffering the effects of a startlingly low .217 BHIP%. That rate has to rebound and that tide will raise all of his offensive stats. Last year in 73 AA ABs vs. RHP his BHIP% was .362. Reid is hitting .314 vs. LHP with a .353 BHIP% but he is slugging .450 against them, a little lower than you would expect.
I say we walk away celebrating the way Reid has cut his K rate this year and look forward to what he will be able to produce once his .217 BHIP% vs. RHP re-enters this universe’s reality. Do not let his current average fool you, it’s a soft number and Reid continues as a top offensive prospect. The big issue is whether he will be able to play SS as a major leaguer. I’d say it’s only a 60-40 proposition that he will, and if he does need to move to the OF or 3B, that puts him on a slightly lower shelf in terms of fantasy value.
Reid probably has a year of AAA ahead of him, but he will start to cast his shadow on the big club sometime in 2008.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – A-
Seas
2006 A+ 411 .326 50 21 12 7.8% 20.0% .557 .936
2006 AA 110 .300 11 3 3 6.0% 28.2% .473 .815
2007 AA 334 .254 31 10 10 7.5% 15.3% .419 .729
Jeff Marquez – Yankees
Starter – Throws Right – 6-2, 175 – 8/10/1984
Jeff Marquez did not work in the ASG when I was there but he was very kind to my boy and was fun to talk with. The 41st overall pick in 2004 is an intriguing combination of power pitcher and groundball thrower. Last year in Hi-A he posted a 2-1 GB:FB ratio and he’s nearly repeated that in AA this year allowing 165 GBs, 36 LDs and 86 FBs for
Jeff sports a low-to-mid 90s fastball that will tease 95 at times. However, the velocity range on any individual fastball is wide, as Jeff has not nailed down his mechanics yet. When he is throwing it well his fastball dives and that accounts for the GBs.
We are approaching 90 prospects profiled so far this year, and what we will now run into a lot in pitchers are guys without the full tool box. Jeff’s fastball will be good when he polishes it but his secondary pitches are weak. He cannot throw his curve for strikes consistently and that pitch, as well as his curve, disappears when Jeff is behind in the count leaving his fastball exposed. Jeff has a bit of trouble with his change, both in terms of disguising it, and creating enough differential with his fastball.
I see Jeff as an MLB starter eventually but at close to 23 years old you have to start to feel some doubts about how far he can bring his secondary pitches. If something clicks here in the next year or two, Jeff could be a very serviceable middle-of-the-rotation starter. If he cannot bring those pitches along, he will settle as a bullpen guy or perhaps even a AAAA player. I am betting he develops into a useful, if unspectacular, starter in the majors.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – B-
Seas Lvl W L ERA IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 AVG WHIP
2006 R 0 1 3.18 5.2 12.7 1.6 1.6 .305 1.41
2006 A+ 7 5 3.61 92.1 8.0 2.8 0.4 .281 1.42
2007 AA 9 5 3.18 99.0 5.3 2.6 0.6 .271 1.34
Sergio Santos – Blue Jays
Shortstop – Bats Right – 6-3, 225 – 7/4/1983
This Fischer Cat won the 2007 Eastern League Homerun Derby … at least we all think so … no one could really see anything … Manchester’s shortstop is a big guy He came from the Diamond Backs in the Troy Glaus trade that also sent Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson to Arizona., but Sergio seemed to have been snake-bitten since leaving the snakes. That is probably excuse making, however. The fact is that Sergio struggles against sophisticated RHP.
This year he is hitting .235 with a .410 SLG% vs. RHPs (217 ABs) while hitting .279 with a .750 SLG% vs. LHP (68 ABs) … Oh and those lefty starts are with a poor .224 BHIP%. Last year his RH split was even worse at AAA (.192, .264). He also has an interesting home (.306, .599 SLG%)/road (.181, .377) split which indicates that there’s a between-the-ears factor going in here (although it needs to be pointed out that his BHIP% is .343 at home and .143 on the road. Explain that one! And his BHIP% was .291 at home and .227 on the road last year!).
Sergio is still struggling with breaking pitches this year but at least he is chasing less and trying to work the count to get more fastballs. He needs to continue that work and port it to AAA where the pitchers are more willing to throw breaking pitches in hitter’s counts.
At shortstop Sergio has good hands and a great arm but he is a big guy and his range is less than optimal. His raw power makes him intriguing but the rawness of his hitting throws cold water on things. He is unlikely to stick at SS into the big leagues and his best shot at being a fantasy contributor will probably be as a part of a platoon in the outfield somewhere.
Having just turned 24, there is still time for Sergio to find the light switch but there no evidence so far that he can handle high-level and MLB right-handers. I would wait until he shows signs of gains there before I would get terribly excited about him.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – C-
Seas
2006 AAA 481 .214 30 5 1 4.8% 20.0% .299 .551
2007 AA 285 .249 39 15 2 10.1% 21.1% .495 .820
