I am usually put in the position of having to defend the unpopular position that it is a myth. We hear all the time about players stepping up to have a great year after several bad years when they are staring down their next contract.
And don’t get me wrong, it does happen.
But we get e-mail wanting us to note which players are in contract years, and source after source includes this in their analysis of players as if it is accepted universal fact that a player will always goose his performance in the last year of his contract.
Unfortunately, that assumption is apocryphal.
It is the same delusion that we suffer about car batteries blowing up when we jump start a car. We hear about it all the time. And say honest, when you jump a car, that thought goes though your mind, doesn’t it?
Sure, it happens, but who knows how many batteries are jumped every day without someone dying. Of course, we don’t hear about that. We hear about the poor guy in
I know that contract year theory is a pretty much a myth. The thoughtful and thorough David Luciani did a study on this a few years ago and concluded that ya … some guys step it up a notch, some guys don’t, most fall within margin of error.
David was an estimable baseball writer, who respected and showed his research and I believed on that basis, but I never really looked for myself. Moreover, I am the writer who tells you several times a year to challenge what you “believe” to be true. What you believe may never have been true. Or it may have been true 5 years ago, but that doesn’t mean it is still true.
I would have challenged this belief a long time ago but frankly at this time of year I am usually busy with other things and I forget. This year I remembered.
Below is a list of 50 position players in their contract years. I looked up the difference between their actual FPI for 2007 and the FPI that we projected for them at the beginning of the year.
First … we are pretty good … many of these players fall in a rather conservative margin of error. Nevertheless, the over all message is unmistakable. Take a look:
Catchers
Brad Ausmus (39) +.07
Michael Barrett (31) -.24
Jason Kendall (34) -.18
Paul Lo Duca (36) -.09
Jorge Posada (36) +.19
Jose Molina (33) -.13
Ivan Rodriguez (36) - $13MM club option for '08 -.04
Yorvit Torrealba (30) -.03
First basemen
Sean Casey (34) -.03
Tony Clark (36) -.16
Scott Hatteberg (38) - $1.85MM club option for '08 - +.07
Ryan Klesko (37) +.05
Mike Lamb (33) -.04
Doug Mientkiewicz (34) -.11
Second basemen
Luis Castillo (32) +.04
Marcus Giles (30) - $4MM club option for '08 -.19
Tadahito Iguchi (33) -.05
Mark Loretta (37) -.07
Kaz Matsui (32) +.15
Jose Valentin (38) -.14
Shortstops
David Eckstein (33) - .00
Cesar Izturis (28) - $5.45MM club option for '08 -.09
Juan Uribe (29) - $5MM club option for '08 -.12
Omar Vizquel (41) -.16
Third basemen
Pedro Feliz (33) +.02
Mike Lowell (34) +.16
Alex Rodriguez (32) - Has ability to opt out of contract after season +.14
Outfielders
Moises Alou (42) - $7.5MM club option for '08 +.03
Barry Bonds (43) +.27
Milton Bradley (30) +.29
Adam Dunn (28) - $13MM club option for '08; becomes free agent after season if traded +.03
Cliff Floyd (35) - mutual option for '08 +.00
Luis Gonzalez (40) +.06
Geoff Jenkins (33) - $9MM club option for '08 - .05
Shannon Stewart (34) +.05
Brad Wilkerson (31) -.01
Mike Cameron (35) -.07
Darin Erstad (34) - $3.5MM club option for '08 -.04
Torii Hunter (32) - .11
Andruw Jones (31) -.19
Kenny Lofton (41) -.10
Corey Patterson (28) -.05
Aaron Rowand (30) +.13
Bobby Abreu (34) - $16MM club option for '08 -.12
Shawn Green (35) - $10MM club option for '08 -.01
Jose Guillen (32) - $9MM club option for '08 +.09
Trot Nixon (34) -.09
DHs
Mike Piazza (39) -.17
Sammy Sosa (39) -.08
Mike Sweeney (34) -.18
There are 50 free agents to-be on this list and 13 of them have produced a better-than-expected FPI this season. Of those, 5 had an FPI gain on .05 or less, a relatively insignificant gain. That leaves 8 of 50 potential free agents who raised their game a level in their contract year
Among those that have produces less than we expected, 10 of 35 (twos player we hit in the nose) had an FPI drop of .05 or less, again, relatively insignificant. In addition 11 more were players that are 36 or older, or catchers 34 or older. Sprinkle in a handful of injuries and we are down to 10 or so who are legitimate case studies … So we have 8 players who we can say upped their game this year and about 10 who didn’t do as well as perhaps they should have.
Seems like the type of split you’d expect from any random group of 50 players at any point in their contract curve, doesn’t it?
The two big winners among position players are Jorge Posada and Mike Lowell. The two big losers are Andruw Jones (wow) and Bobby Abreu.
Ok, we have to put A-Rod in their as well, but a) can money really be motivating him at this point? And b) can he really “cash in” much more than he already has?
We will do pitchers next week, but for now, there is your 2007 applied application of contract year theory.
