This morning's First Pitch marks my last one for the 2007 season. Its been quite a ride. Hopefully some of the information I have included in this column has helped your fantasy team to the playoffs and ultimately, a championship. I had a lot of thoughts on today's topic: Should I go over key pitching match-ups for the last week of the season? Nah, that's been done to death and there is way too much uncertainty except for the teams in serious playoff contention. How about the key keepers going into next season? We likely address those concerns in our Prospect Central Section anyway. No need to duplicate efforts.
Instead, I've decided to revisit a pre-season analysis of the catcher position that was assigned to me by our fearless Fantistics leader, Angelo Perri. Each pre-season, we attempt to uncover some sleepers by position as well as players who are expected to see an increase in FPI from the previous year. So, I dug through the electronic archives and uncovered the original article (you can also find it here).
A big challenge to being a fantasy baseball analyst is admitting when your predictions are wrong and being humble when they are right. There are plenty of embarrassing claims and "pats on the back"to go around from these predictions. Enjoy the walk down memory lane:
Joe Mauer - "Be careful about jumping to get him too early though. [Brian] McCann should double Mauer's production in HR while maintaining a .300+ average and a 0.76 FPI."
Well, Brian McCann actually has tripled Joe Mauer's HR production, hitting 18 compared to Mauer's 6. Of course, its been another year full of injuries for Mauer, keeping his AB total under 400 and all of his volume totals low. When he has played, he has posted a 0.65 FPI compared to McCann's 0.58, but McCann has stayed a healthier and has played in almost 25 more games than Mauer. Of course, when I wrote this, I wasn't predicting based on injury-proneness, but it turned out for the best.
Michael Barrett - "Barrett has all the makings of a career year in 2007."
If you play in a fantasy boxing league, Barrett could have helped you. Instead, became a clubhouse cancer in Chicago and was quickly traded to the Padres where he has split catching duty time with Josh Bard. Career year? Not quite. He showed some power with the Cubs at times, hitting 9 dingers before being shipped off to the Padres at a rate of 1 HR for every 23.4 AB. His overall numbers with the Cubbies wasn't great at a 0.53 FPI, but there were definitely thoughts that he was just in an early-season slump and that he would break out. Instead, the trade dropped his fantasy value to basically zero and even when he has seen playing time, its been ugly. He's hitting just .220 with San Diego with a 0.24 FPI and no home runs.
Johnny Estrada - "If you're looking for power out of the catcher position, you can look elsewhere. His sub-.800 OPS is a guarantee for this season and his career-high in HR came last year in Arizona with 11. However, if you're looking for a little average boost in your Roto league, you can capture a little upside with Estrada who hit .302 last year and .314 in 2004."
His sub-.800 was an easy guarantee. In fact, he's currently sitting at .698. He has 11 HR matching his career-high from last season. He even has 2 grand slams in that mix (one came last night - nice timing). The average boost hasn't quite lived up to his previous years, hitting only.276 down about 25 points from last season.
Russell Martin - "I think he can put up low-teen HR and SB production - not bad for a $7 EAV catcher in his second season in the bigs."
If you were able to grab Martin cheap in the draft, you probably had a decent season. Low-teens in HR & SB? I mean, high-teens for HR and low 20's for SB. Martin is sitting on 18 HR and 21 SB this season and has put up some big numbers for a backstop. He's hitting .297 for the year and I think he goes on a week surge to boost him over the .300 mark. If you're a Martin owner, I'm sure you've been thrilled with his 0.73 FPI and I think he'll hover around that mark next season as well.
David Ross - "Ross is your answer if you're looking for HR out of the catcher... he'll likely split some time behind the plate with Javier Valentin. But, we think he'll be close to 400 AB by the end of the season."
If David Ross didn't have that concussion in August, he probably would have flirted with the 400 AB mark (or at least ended the season somewhere around 350). Instead, he's currently at 300 AB and, as predicted, has put up some decent numbers. Even with that AB total, he has still hit 18 HR at a rate of 18.9 HR/AB. Other than the occasional power, its been a pretty abysmal offensive year for Ross. He's currently below the Mendoza line and has just a 0.38 FPI. He wass probably been added and dropped in most mixed leagues and used as a stop-gap for your another injured catcher. We said your roto average would take a hit with Ross, but I don't think anyone would have thought it would be this bad.
Josh Bard - "With Piazza making the move north, Bard will be the everyday catcher and should log 450 AB."
... unless Michael Barrett tries to punch Carlos Zambrano in the face and gets traded to the Padres. THEN, Bard will likely split time. Even with Barrett in the picture, Bard gets most of the regular time behind the plate and is currently at 350 AB. He has been a decent option though, posting a 0.56 FPI and a .275 average. Power is certainly not the name of his game, but it wasn't expected to be either. Hitting at Petco park was going to crush any hopes of a decent HR total (he has 4 HR this year). Bard has the makings of an everyday catcher. It will be interesting to see what the offseason brings in San Diego.
Jason Varitek - "He'll bounce back a bit and still has plenty of opportunities to drive-in and score runs in the Red Sox potent lineup. But at a $4 EAV, you might want to pass on an aging catcher and take a chance on some of the other younger guys..."
Varitek has 413 AB with 53 runs, 63 RBI, a .252 average and 13 HR. There are definitely others on this list that weren't able to put up these numbers and Varitek probably came at a cheaper price on draft day. He did bounce back from his terrible year in 2006, but another year older makes him another cautious tale for 2008.
Mike Napoli - "While Napoli's power should yield about 25 HR this year, his 2nd half performance leaves fantasy owners a little nervous going into '07."
The injury bug swallowed a lot of Napoli's playing time this season. Sprain ankles and strained hamstrings have limited his AB's to just 205 in 2007, making it difficult to make sense of his numbers. He missed the entire month of August and has played in just 13 games since June 30th. He does have 9 HR in his minimal times to the plate, giving him a HR/AB of 22.8. That would mean he would've needed to post about 570 AB to reach the 25 HR mark (assuming the HR rate was the same). His OPS is 0.789 and FPI is 0.61. Still a power threat going into 2008, but injury concerns will drop his value significantly.
Bengie Molina - "Moving to AT&T probably won't help his numbers, but Molina's production this season should remain relatively consistent to the numbers he's been putting up for the past couple of years."
Bengine Molina's numbers did remain relatively consistent to his previous seasons. Some statistical measures did improve at AT&T, but his overall fantasy production (as measured by FPI) did drop slightly. Let's start with some general stats. He has 38 runs scored compared to 45 and 44 in the previous seasons. Pretty much dead-on. He has surpassed his RBI predictions with 80 RBI, up from 69 in 2005 and 57 in 2006. Even in a tough hitter's park, his total HR production has stayed steady with 19 HR in '07, the same as '06. Of course, he has more AB this season, so his rate is just a bit slower at 25.1 compared to 22.8, but that difference is basically insignificant. Overall, his FPI dropped slightly from 0.59 and 0.58 in the last two seasons to 0.53 this year. Still, his production is consistent and you probably got the catcher you were drafting back in March.
Chris Iannetta - "Finally, we'll get a chance to see a full-season of action behind the plate.... While his first full-year in the majors won't yield the same results [as the minors], we still think the rookie has lots of upside and a little Coors' field magic won't hurt either."
Chris Iannetta got off to a terrible start this season and he never turned the corner. The Rockies, instead, turned to Yorvit Torrealba as their regular catching, limiting Iannetta to just 193 total AB with a week left to play. Iannetta started hitting .158 in April in 38 AB and then followed it up with a .222 in 45 AB in May. Not a great way to nail-down the everyday job. He'll enter 2008 fighting for a starting spot once again.
Gerald Laird - "Don't expect that kind of performance [from 2006] out of him this year, but he should get 400 AB or so. Also, keep an eye out on his lefty/righty match-ups throughout the year. He hit .400 against lefties in 85 AB and only .241 against righties in 158 AB in 2006."
Yup, he'll get 400 AB this year (sitting on 389 right now) and he certainly won't match his 2006 stats. In fact, his numbers are WAY down from his career-year last season. He's hitting just .219 with a 0.38 FPI. His lefty/righty splits, while prominent in 2006, are meaningless with such low offensive production anyway. A pretty disappointing year for Laird, but he was likely a cheap-buy on draft day anyway.
Dioner Navarro - "He'll hit double-digit HR's this season at Tropicana, but his power isn't that impressive. He's more known for his bat-control and could post an EYE of about 0.85. Put him down for a 0.53 FPI and probably only worth a pick in AL-only leagues or deep mixed leagues. Keep an eye on his production from the left-side of the plate. He hit just .245 against righties last year compared to .286 against lefties in 2006."
His power isn't that impressive, but he is only 2 HR away from that "double-digit"prediction for HR. He has 8 dingers with Tampa Bay and his batting eye only came in at 0.50 (but still not too bad for a catcher). The 0.53 FPI was a bit aggressive, but not that far off. Navarro is posting a 0.45 FPI, which is probably enough to get him some playing time in most AL-only leagues. His lefty/righty splits were once again intriguing. His overall average is low anyway, making his average splits of .236 against lefties and .228 against righties. But his FPI against lefties is 0.53 and versus righties is just 0.39.
Miguel Montero - "His defensive inadequacies will prevent him from seeing more than 350 AB this season (he'll split the rest of the time with fellow D-Back Chris Snyder). But Montero has lots of upside and could definitely break-out as a solid fantasy catcher with 20 HR potential. He'll get an everyday job at some point, but for now he's a guy you might want to stash away if you have the room."
This was basically true. He moved aside for Chris Snyder most of the season and only has 205 AB to his name. The power potential referenced above came true in his brief time at the plate. He has 10 HR at a rate of 20.5 HR/AB rate.
jribando@fantistics.com
