The calendar has been flipped to September. Rosters have expanded and major league teams are already fleshing out their rosters for the final month. This week in Prospect Central, we perform a lightening round of the prospects that were promoted in the last few days.
Many of these players are among the 130+ prospects we have profiled, in depth, in this space this year. Members can see those profiles in our archives. Just click the Prospect Central tab on our home page at Insiderbaseball.com.
Clay Buchholz – RHP – Red Sox
What can you say about what happened at Fenway last night? I will say this. If you didn’t see it, what you should know about Clay Buchholtz’s no-hitter is that it was more impressive than it sounds. Much more impressive.
Clay was masterful last night and he had three pitches working to an almost unbelievable degree. He threw whatever Tek asked for, in any count, at any time. He was fearless, and he was so good that it upped his pitch count to 115. He threw 6 curves during the course of the night that were so good that home plat umpire Joe West gave up on them too early. I started counting after the 7th and those curves that Joe missed cost him somewhere around 12 additional pitches.
The Red Sox top pitching prospect was recalled earlier than perhaps the Sox would have wanted due to an injury to Tim Wakefield and 48 hours ago he wasn’t even schedule to pitch in last night’s game.
The 6-1 right-hander took some lumps in AAA Pawtucket after marauding through his first 16 appearances at AA this year. He was 7-2, 1.77 in AA with a .184 OBA and 0.89 WHIP. In AAA he was 1-2, 3.78 in 7 starts amid reports that he simple had a hard time reacclimating to AAA after a short cup of coffee with the big club. He still struck out 13.7/9 at AAA with a manageable 2.7 BB rate. He held opponents to a .223 OBA despite an unfavorable .338 BHIP% and posted a 1.11 WHIP.
Clay is the real deal with 3-4 offerings that could be considered plus at this point (his “slider” might just be a second, tighter curve, it is has a lot of bite). He throws a low-to-mid 90’s fastball, and a hard slider as well as an outstanding 12-6 curve, and his change which may be his best pitch.
He has control and command of all four pitches and he is coachable with a solid baseball IQ, a bulldog attitude, and a strong mental make up as we saw last night. He also has some physical maturation left which may even add a foot to his fastball. Clay is a #1 starter in the making.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – A+
Radhames Liz – RHP – Orioles
The O’s 23-year-old right-hander is the stereotypical young pitching stud … mad skilz and very little control over them, or understanding of them.
He throws a mid-to-high 90s with great life as well as a plus curve and usable change. I saw him against the Sea Dogs early this season and against the Fisher Cats this summer and saw a thrower starting to learn how to pitch. His numbers in this, his second tour of AA showed the gains he has made. He was 11-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, down from 3-1, 5.36, 1.71 in 10 starts last year.
His BB rate, at 4.6/9 is problematic and the development of his change, his third pitch, is lagging, meaning he is not even ensured as a career as a starter at this point. Liz is also looking at some 2008 time in AAA as his pitching education continues.
Long Term Fantasy Grade – C+
Adam Lind – OF – Blue Jays
The 2006 Eastern League MVP had a rocky go of it with the big club early this year hitting just .230 with 8 HRs and 24 Rbi in 235 ABs (.383 SLG%). He suffered from a .264 BHIP% but he clearly didn’t take root in his first MLB tour whiffing 22.6% of the time and walking just 5.6%.
In AAA this season Adam his .302 in 159 ABs with 6 HRs, and slugged .491. Of course his BHIP% was .365 there so he collected some of the luck that was due him in
Adam upped his walk rate to a marginal 7.0% in AAA but still fanned 23.9% of the time. To be successful with that K rate you have to produce a higher than normal BHIP%. It is easier to control your Ks, which Adam must learn to do.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B-
Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Red Sox
The Red Sox top position prospect probably would have stayed in AAA Pawtucket (where the calamari roam free) a bit longer this month if not for injuries to Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, and Bobby Kielty (Kielty is back in the Sox lineup). The Sox also recalled Brandon Moss so Jacoby’s PT will be spotty as the Sox try to hold off the Yankees in the East.
Jacoby simply dominated AA this year (.452, with a .494 OBP, .644 SLG%, 9.6% K rate and 7.6% BB rate in part because of a ridiculous .500 BHIP%) before being promoted to AA. He struggled at first in AAA but more than held his own overall. Ellsbury hit .297 in AAA with 1 HR and 63 Rbi in 340 ABs. He posted a .358 OBP but a disappointing .358 SLG%. He held his K rate to 12.6% and walked at 8.6%, which are both solid rates.
He never will hit for HR power but he should provide doubles, which will help create Rbi opps. Speed is definitely part of his game with 40 SBs this season, 32 in AAA.
Ellsbury is a big part of the Red Sox future as a leadoff hitter with speed, and their centerfielder. He will be a fantasy contributor in SBs, Runs and Average but he will not be a home run hitter. Opportunity is also a problem here as the Sox are locked into
Long Term Fantasy Grade – A-
Phil Dumatrait – LHP – Reds
This 26-year-old left-hander is a TJS alum who is starting to cobble his career back together. Unfortunately, he suffers from a low ceiling due to the fact that he is more than the sum of his parts.
Phil’s high 80s/low-90s fastball, change, and loose curve are truly mediocre but he is a heady pitcher who knows how to sequence his pitches. The problem is the open question of whether he can outthink hitters at the MLB level.
In his second post-TJS tour of AAA, Phil went 10-6 this year with a 3.53 ERA. His OBA was .244 but it was aided by a favorable .273 BHIP%. With his modest 5.4 K/9 mostly offset by his 3.5 BB/9 Phil has to keep the ball on the ground and limit homers. When he is going well that happens. When he isn’t, things will get ugly in the majors.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - C
Brandon Moss – OF - Red Sox
Moss made his Fenway debut this weekend playing left field in place of Manny Ramirez. The 24-year old outfielder is capable of being an every day OF who can hit 20+ homers, though it probably won’t happen with the Red Sox.
Moss held his strong BB rate (10.9%) in his first tour in AAA this year but fanned 29.1% of the time in 475 ABs. Despite the Ks he maintained a .286 AVG, but needed the help of a very favorable .374 BHIP% to do it. He left AAA hitting .286 with 16 HRs, 65 Rbi and 41 double contributing to a lofty .846 SLG%.
On the one hand a 29.1% K rate, on the other hand a .846 SLG% … This is Moss in a nutshell, teasingly talented and maddeningly inconsistent.
Moss will have an MLB career ahead of him and it will probably look a lot like Trot Nixon’s career … without the injuries we hope. Think Nixon 2.0
Long Term Fantasy Grade - B
Ian Kennedy – RHP - Yankees
Joba Chamberlain has gotten a lot of the Yankees prospect ink this season but Kennedy may have actually had the better year.
Ian made his MLB debut yesterday limiting the Rays to 1 run in 7 IP on 5 hits, 2 walks and 6 K. Ian climbed three levels in 2007 finishing in AAA where he was 1-1, 2.08 in 6 starts, with a 1.04 WHIP and .204 OBA. That line was helped by a .265 BHIP% and a 85.6% strand percentage.
Ian is not overpowering, throwing in the 88-92 range and he has a fastball with natural sink, which helps him keep the ball in the ballpark (0.52 HR/9 in AAA). But location is his game, not that he has tremendous control (2.8 BB/9 in AAA)
It easier to like pitchers who throw hard but Kennedy is making a living out of defying that bias. Still, he has come a long way in short time and there plenty of indicators (favorable strand% and BHIP%, high walk rate) that give you pause.
If he can maintain his power K rate (8.8 in AAA) at the MLB level despite the lack of true power stuff, and if he can maintain his sterling HR rate in the majors he can continue to be very effective. He did just that Saturday, however, he has to show me at least, he can do it long-term.
Long term Fantasy Grade – B-
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