Within the player projections software we have a column for player notes this season where I post a few of the technical indicators that influence the 2008 projections, here's the latest round of analytic notes. For those new to Fantistics, here is a link to our free Charting area which highlights some of the technical indicators that we utilize in our forecasting model.
When I start the Preseason Player Projection notes in late February, the notes will have less of a quantitative focus as we start focusing on the qualitative vibes that come out of the various camps.
Here we go:
Colon, Bartolo Scouts have reported his
fastball topping out in the mid to high 80s (-) A bad sign for
a once dominating pitcher trying to latch on with someone.
Capuano, Chris Unlucky BHIP last year, 36 points higher than average, should improve in WHIP and ERA.
Gaudin, Chad Shifted from FB to GB pitcher in '07, struggles with high Walk totals
Bonderman, Jeremy Struggled w/ runners on base, we should see an improvement in ERA.
Meche, Gil Based on his Quality Starts, he should have won 17 in '07 instead of 9
Wang, Chien-Ming Lineup inflates his Win totals by 4-5 a season, risky to project him as a 19 game winner when he deserves to be in the 13-14 range.
Buehrle, Mark 5 less Wins than deserved in '07, FB% increase is concerning
Zito, Barry Bounceback season Wins & ERA. xERA in '07 was 50 more than deserved
Rodriguez, Wandy K/I rate has improved, which is improving his runners stranded rate. Drop in ERA expected.
Billingsley, Chad Developing into QS, has strong K/I ratio to succeed. ERA rise expected
Hughes, Phil A+ Prospect, <1.00 WHIP in AA, >1:1 K/I ratio
Kuroda, Hiroki Good Control 2.8 K/BB, but average K/I % (.74), late bloomer #3 potent
Buchholz, Clay A+ Prospect, fastball w/ life, solid change & 12:6 curve. Not starting yet. Doesn't matter you must grab him after the #2 starters start to disappear.
Cabrera, Daniel GB% rose in 2007, but K/I ratio fell from 1.00 to .84 (worrisome)
Lee, Cliff Difficulty in critical situations (.61 Stranded Rate), K/I rose, should improve
Lilly, Ted FB% rose, but HR% allowed did not (lucky?), also BHIP less than deserved (30+ points on the lucky side)
Blanton, Joe Low K/I ratio leaves him at risk to being unlucky on balls hit into play (BHIP), slight step back in '08