Value Picks - April 23, 2008
Welcome to another edition of "Value Picks." Once again, we'll try to focus on some players who are most likely floating around the waiver wires in your league and can be cheap value pick-ups. I'm going to try and limit the value-pick universe to players that are owned in about 10% or less of all public leagues (according to ESPN and CBS Sports). Some of these guys are old names returning from the dead. Others are so obscure you may not have heard of them (and they might not even have pictures on their player profiles - a sure sign of a deep sleeper).
Ok, enough stalling - let's dig-in....
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1. John Bowker (San Francisco Giants - OF) - The lefty out of San Fran is owned in about 7% of all leagues despite his fast start for the Giants. He has 3 HR (all of them coming against the Cardinals) and is playing a little 1B in addition to the OF. With 9 big-league games under his belt, Bowker is hitting .323, 1.063 OPS, 9 RBI, and 50% of his hits have been for extra bases. In 2007, for Double-A Connecticut, Bowker definitely put up numbers good enough to earn him his most recent trip to the majors. He hit .307 with 22 HR, .880 OPS, HR/AB of 23.7, and BB/K of 0.398 all for an FPI of 0.70. His power numbers have kind of "popped-up" out of nowhere, as he never hit more than 13 in his previous minor league seasons and posted HR/AB rates well exceeding 40.0+. Bowker won't be the savior for your team this year, but NL-only leagues should take a flier on him now before an inevitable statistical correction takes place and drives his rates lower.
2. Jonathan Sanchez (San Francisco Giants - SP) - This isn't the "All-Giants" Value Picks First Pitch. We all know where that would lead us - straight to the bottom of our fantasy standings. But Jonathan Sanchez IS the 2nd Giant to make this list and for a very good reason - strikeouts. Owned in about 9% of leagues, Sanchez has already recorded 26 K's in just 20.0 IP for a K.9 of 11.7 and a K/I of 1.30. Officially, he only has 1 quality start (because he has been removed after the 5th inning twice), but he has only given up a total of 3 ER in his last three outings totaling 16.0 IP. That's right - if you throw out his first game of the season, he has been fantastic. Yet, fantasy owners have not taken notice of Sanchez perhaps because of his underwhelming 1-1 record or because he pitches for the lowly Giants. Its true - the W total may be tough playing for SF, but you should never chase wins in fantasy, but you most definitely should chase K's (not to mention, SF is a pitcher-friendly ballpark at a factor of 107). Sanchez's next two starts come against the Reds (4/25) and the Rockies (4/30). Despite having guys like Adam Dunn on their roster, the Reds strike out the least in the National League with just 111 K's in 701 AB for the season. It will be interesting to see the K totals coming out of that game for Sanchez. With that said, the Rockies rank 3rd in K's with 154 in 739 AB, so he should be able to even-out any drop in his K-rate from the Reds game with his outing against the Rockies.
3. Reed Johnson (Chicago Cubs - OF) - Reed Johnson, owned in about 2% of all leagues, has mostly been a fill-in OF for the injured Alfonso Soriano since joining the Cubs a few weeks ago. However, he's definitely opening some eyes in Chicago, including manager Lou Piniella. The 31-year-old outfielder is hitting .339 in 56 AB with 9 RBI, a .415 OBP, and an .808 OPS. Obviously, when Soriano returns he will resume his position in LF. And the ever-popular Kosuke Fukudome has a lock-down on RF. But CF remains a question mark for the north-siders with Johnson and Felix Pie the two likely choices (the other options would be Matt Murton or Mark DeRosa - no thanks). Don't expect a ton of power from Johnson and a drop from his .339 average is very likely. In the four years from 2003 through 2006 when he recorded 400+ AB, Johnson averaged 452 AB, .288 average, .326 OBP, .749 OPS, HR/AB of 45.2, BB/K of .314, 72 runs, 6 SB, 10 HR, and 55 RBI. These numbers aren't blowing anyone away, but a regular spot in the Cubs lineup should yield an improvement in average and runs scored. Afterall, the Cubs lead the MAJOR LEAGUES in runs scored with 126 and in runs per game at 6.3 through 20 games in 2008.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore Orioles - SP) - Owned in about 6% of leagues, Jeremy Guthrie has had some tough luck in the early-going for 2008. But first, let's take a look back at his 2007 numbers and reminisce. The now 29-year-old posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, a 7-5 record, a 6.3 K/9 and a QS% of 65.4%. You might be asking yourself how that ranks compared to some other pitchers from 2007. Funny you should ask... Other 65% quality start pitchers from last year with at least 25 games started included Jon Garland, Roy Oswalt, Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright. Of course, these aforementioned pitchers get tons of fantasy airtime, but Guthrie's performance last year seems to have been swept under the rug with his mediocre start to 2008. In 5 starts this year, he has a 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, HR/9 of 1.4, and drop in K/9 of 4.2, and no wins. No wins in 5 starts. Certainly hasn't been pretty, but he has 4 quality starts in a row including last night's 7.2 IP, 3 ER performance. By no means do I mean to compare him to the above pitchers, but you can't brush aside the fact he is 21-for-31 in quality starts dating back to the beginning of last season.
2. Brendan Harris (Minnesota Twins - 2B/SS) - Brendan Harris is your typical utility player that now plays everyday for the Minnesota Twins. Owned in about 3% of leagues, he has multiple position eligibility in the middle infield and may even have 1B locked-down in some leagues. An AL-only consideration and barely anything else, he does have the ability to help with Average and Runs. Last season with the Rays (also a turf field, right?), Harris posted an overall 0.59 FPI while recording a .286 average, .778 OPS, BB/K of .44 and HR/AB of 43.4. Obviously, he's not raising too many eyebrows with those numbers. But taking a look at last year's splits does show a little fantasy talent underneath the totals. Before the all-star break, Harris actually posted a 0.67 FPI, a .310 average, .365 OBP, .829 OPS, and 8 HR. Not bad for a middle-infield fill-in. He came back to the crowd in the 2nd half, but that doesn't mean he still doesn't have the ability to go on a hot-streak and post .300+ numbers again. He's already hitting .306 with a .362 OBP for the Twins in 2008. If you're struggling in the MI and want some flexibility, you won't more bang for your buck than Brendan Harris.
3. Eric Hinske (Tampa Bay Rays - 1B / OF) - Hinske is on fire right now and is still only owned in 6% of leagues through fantasy Week 4. Multiple position eligibility for OF/1B helps this AL-only candidate become a decent utility pick-up for power and production. He is posting an OPS of 1.157, .327 average, .407 OBP, 10 RBI, and 5 HR in 52 AB so far. The once Rookie-of-the-Year Toronto Blue Jay seems comfortable in TB and if he can only stay in one place and healthy at the same time, could put up decent fantasy numbers in 2008. As with the rest of the players on this list, he's not going to be a superstar, but is a decent value for potentially putting up a .280 avg, 20 HR power, and 80-RBI production. Another couple of dingers over the next 2 weeks and his ownership % will shoot up. Might as well take advantage now if you have the roster option.
