Nick Swisher - We're all waiting for Swisher to turn the corner, but he has yet to really break-out of his early season slump. Whenever he posts a multi-hit game and looks like he's about to put his season back on track, he'll have ahitless day. Lets take a look at just how bad its been and you decide if he's worth "reversion to the mean" trade candidate consideration. First, the power. Swisher's last three seasons yielded HR/AB rates of 22.0, 15.9, and 24.5. Additionally, those numbers were posted in Oakland which has a ballpark factor of 92 (not favorable to hitters). This year, his 3 HR drives a power rate of 43.0 while playing at U.S. Cellular Field that has a factor of 118 (one of the best HR-hitting parks in the league). Watching WhiteSox games, it appears like he is striking out more than he has in the past. But his BB/K is .735 and is in-line (or even better) than his previous years of 0.50, 0.64, and 0.76. Even just isolating the strikeout without the walks, he is still striking out at similar rates per plate appearance at 4.5, which basically was his 3-year average from 2005-2007 with seasons of 4.7, 4.3, and 4.9. In the end, I look atFPI at this point of the season and drastic drop-offs from preseason projections and 3-year historical averages. His 3-year FPI average was 0.61 and his preseason projection was 0.69 as he moved to the better hitting ballpark, the better lineup, and with another year of maturity under his belt. This season, he's at 0.42, over a 50% drop-off from 2007. He might be flying under the radar just enough for a fantasy owner to give-up or undervalue his potential. The weather hasn't warmed-up much in Chicago yet, but I have a feeling Swisher's numbers and the Chicago thermometer will rise at the same time.
BJ Upton - Upton has flashed some speed recently, swiping 3 bases in the last 6 games and bringing his season total to 7 in 11 attempts. Upton has had a decent season with a little drop-off in power. His 24 HR last year produced a HR/AB rate of 19.8. The power drops off to just 42.7 this season with 3 total HR in 128 AB, but he'll go on a HR streak at some point and improve on his rate. Afterall, he hit 9 HR pre-break last year and 15 in the 2nd half with 7 coming in August. In total, he's posting a 0.72 FPI, -0.08 from last year's 0.78 with the long-ball mostly to blame.
New York Yankees - Sometimes, rainouts have positive impacts on fantasy baseball too. With the Sunday rainout in Detroit, the Yankees pitching rotation moves-up a day and Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang will be two start pitchers for fantasy week 7. Mike Mussina gets bumped to Wednesday with Darrel Rasner taking the mound on Thursday. While Kei Igawa is currently scheduled to round-out the rotation on Friday, there have been rumors of the Yanks recalling Ian Kennedy to make the start against the Mets instead of Igawa. In Igawa's only start of the season (last Friday), he lasted just 3.0 IP and gave up 6 ER to the Tigers. While Kennedy has struggled as well, his last start in Triple-A was extremely dominant, pitching 7.1IP of 1-hit/shutout ball with no walks and 8 K's. As I've mentioned earlier, the real story here is that Joba Chamberlain continues to NOT be a consideration for any of these starts nor is he rumored to be taking over any open rotation spots in the short-term.
Gavin Floyd - At times this season, Floyd has been unhittable. Yesterday was not the case. The Mariners hit Floyd up for 9 hits and 5 ER in just 3.2 IP, raising his ERA to 3.32 and WHIP to 1.13. Prior to yesterday's early departure, Floyd has pitched 6.0 innings or more in each of his 6 previous outings, posting 5 quality starts in those 6 outings. He's now 5-for-7 inQS and has 3 shutout performances under his belt. Keep him in your rotations with favorable match-upcoming up against the Giants on Friday.
Raul Ibanez - It sure was looking like Ibanez was going to have a repeat of his 30-HR season from a few years ago. But instead, Ibanez went through a homerless drought between April 12th and yesterday. He started the season hitting 5 HR's in 12 games and a 1.196 OPS. Since that day, his OPS has dropped to .824 with only 1 HR and a drop in average all the way to .291. When he's hitting,Ibanez is a decent #3 or #4 OF option, but the days of him hitting 30 HR are over. Even with 6 HR so far this season, he'll end in the low 20's.
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