Good morning and welcome to Value Picks. As we've been writing about all season, value picks aims to help you identify players who are either floating on your free agent wires or have been dropped by other fantasy owners out of frustration. Some o these guys are lesser known names (you won't see Jay Bruce's name on this list), but all have one thing in common: they are barely owned by the majority of fantasy leagues out there. Let's get to it:
1. Ben Francisco - OF - Cleveland Indians - Has anybody paid attention to Francisco's numbers this season? He is slowly climbing up the ownership ladder, but not quick enough in my opinion. He's hitting .342 with a .375 OBP, 941 OPS, and an FPI of 0.80. The BHIP% relative to his batting average has been a bit lucky at .280, but its tough to judge at just 76 AB. In a lineup that has struggled this season, the 26-year-old Francisco has been a bright spot. He has added a couple of HR in 76 AB and 2 stolen bases in 4 attempts to add to his overall value. Looking back to his numbers in the minor leagues, he has occasional power and plenty of speed. In triple-A in 2007, Francisco hit .318 with a .874 OPS, .80 FPI, 12 HR for a rate of 31.4, and 22 SB in 30 attempts. He's been bouncing around the minors since 2002 and has a professional career-high of 17 HR, so he's not going to blow you away with his power. But he does have speed and the ability to hit for average which could definitely help in AL only leagues.
2. Matt Garza - SP - Tampa Bay Rays - One of these days, Matt Garza is going to put together a string of quality starts and his ownership percentage is going to jump from the current sub-10%. For the season, Garza's overall numbers are pretty mediocre: 4.06 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 3.9 K/9, and 50% Quality Start rate. Throw away April (and chalk it up to a slow start perhaps), and Garza is 4-for-5 in quality starts with a 2.57 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and a 3.7 K/9. Of course, Wins are impossible to predict, but enough quality starts and the Rays' offense should lead to plenty of W opportunities down the road. One of the drawbacks to Garza since he has joined the big leagues is his significant drop in the strikeout. As you can see from his 2008 K/9 totals, he has hardly overpowered hitters. Looking at his minor league stats, his 2005 through 2007 K/9 rates were 10.6, 10.2, and 9.3. So basically, his K production has been cut to a third of his minor league levels. I think he has some K upside when he rediscovers his "out" pitch, giving him fantasy value upside in the making. It can't hurt making a claim on him now, especially with two out of his three upcoming matchups against the Texas Rangers (the other one is not favorable against the Red Sox).
3. Pedro Feliz - 3B - Philadelphia Phillies - I've been saying it since day-1 with Feliz - his power potential mixed-in with a great lineup and a hitter-friendly ballpark gives Feliz more value than people give him credit. His ownership % is starting to look like a hockey stick (flat in the first few weeks and starting to sky-rocket over the last couple of fantasy periods). For the season, Feliz is hitting .270 with a .311 OBP, .760 OPS, and 0.55 FPI. But for the month of May, he's on fire with a .330 average, .889 OPS, and 0.72 FPI. The key to Feliz landing on the Value Pick list is his underrated power. He has 7 HR for the season at a 26.4 rate (slightly better in May at 23.5). While the long-ball is the most obvious form of Feliz's production, he should add plenty of RBI and run opportunities as well. The Phillies currently rank 2nd in the MLB in runs scored with 287, average 5.3 runs per game (right behind the Chicago Cubs). With other hot-name 3B like Blake Dewitt, Akinori Iwamura (has 3B eligibility), and Mark Reynolds posting higher ownership %'s, according to some of the more popular league services, for my money, I will take Pedro Feliz for the long-haul.
4. Wandy Rogriguez - SP - Houston Astros - If you've been playing fantasy long enough and have been a Fantistics subscriber, you probably have realized my thoughts on Wandy Rodriguez. But with an ownership percentage in CBS leagues at just 30% and on ESPN at just 25%, I couldn't sit idly by and let him go unrecognized. He's been hurt most of the 2008 season with a groin injury (also known as a non-arm injury in my book), but is set to return to the mound today against the Cardinals. He deserves the claim now and while he's a risky start in his first return appearance, he is scheduled to be a 2-start pitcher against the Pirates on the road and against the Cardinals (again) back at home. Ok - so why the love for Wandy? Two easy answers - strikeouts and a weird home/road split that is sure to correct itself at some point. First, the strikeouts: since 2005, Rodriguez's K/9 rate has steadily climbed from 5.6 to 6.5 to 7.8 in his first FULL season in 2007. In 23.1 IP this year, before going down with the groin injury, Wandy posted a 9.3 K/9. If nothing else, he should be a solid candidate to pad your strikeout totals if he can return to full form. Now the reason why he's been avoided in leagues: his abnormal road/away splits have led to high overall ERA and WHIP numbers. Let me benchmark your expectations with his overall 2007 numbers: 4.58 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, K/9 of 7.8, K/BB of 2.6, and an overall 9-13 record. Nothing great, nothing too terrible (except for the 13 losses). Now, his splits at home: 95.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 6-3 record. Fantastic numbers at home - perhaps he feels especially comfortable on the mound at Minute Maid Park. So, with those great numbers comes the flip side: his away split of 87.2 IP, 6.36 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, and a 3-10 record. If nothing else, grab him and play him when he's playing at home. But I think he's a lot better than his weird road performance and probably a bit worse than his home track record.
5. Taylor Buchholz - RP - Colorado Rockies - This is more of a "keep this guy on your radar just in case something happens" value pick. For those leagues that completely ignore middle relievers, let me introduce you to Taylor Buchholz. He has 10 Holds for the Rockies this season while posting a 1.23 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9. As one of the setup men for closer Brian Fuentes, Buchholz has held opposing hitters to a .204 BAA with a 1.13 GB/FB ratio. So why does he have value? With what seems like constant turmoil in the closer role in Colorado, I think Buccholz is the next in-line to try the job if something should go wrong with Fuentes. Let's make something clear first: there is no imminent danger of Fuentes losing his job right now. He's 6-for-9 in saves and has 19 K's in 21.2 IP with a 2.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But let's also not forget that Fuentes has already lost this job once (to Manny Parra mid-season 2007) before reclaiming the spot in April of this season. It can all crumble again and if it does, I think Buccholz gets a shot before they put Manny Parra or any of the other Rockies' relievers in that role. Again, a watch-list-only name at this point (and if you're in holds leagues, he's probably already claimed).
6. Eric Hinske - 1B, OF, maybe 3B - Tampa Bay Rays - I love multiple position eligibility, especially when I can swap my lineup around on Mondays and Thursday and still field a full squad. Eric Hinske gives you that flexiblity without losing too much in the HR department. He's this year's Ty Wigginton (without the 2B eligibility). He's hitting a modest .257 with a .340 OBP, but has a 0.70 FPI, mostly driven by his 10 HR and 14.4 HR/AB rate in 144 AB. There's a little risk of playing time concerns, but he's been playing regularly lately in RF. If he doesn't have 3B eligibility in your league yet, he may soon with 4 games played there this year. We all know the Hinske history of winning the rookie of the year award and then bouncing from the Blue Jays to the Red Sox before landing in Tampa Bay. I'm not completely convinced he's a full 2008 season consideration, but with 10 HR and 3 positions under his belt, he's definitely worth more than the 30% ownership right now.
