First Pitch - Value Picks - June 11, 2008

Joe Ribando

Jun 11, 2008

Value Picks - June 11, 2008

Fantasy Week 11 is upon us and for some leagues, it marks the half-way point to the fantasy season. Lots of head-to-head leagues play 22 week schedules with 12 teams playing each other twice. We've had quite a run of surprises so far.... from top-notch / high-draft players under-performing (Jose Reyes, Miguel Cabrera) to early season value pick / waiver wire pick-ups carrying our teams (Edinson Volquez, Jay Bruce).

So as we move through another week of the season, let's try and identify some more value pick names that can help your team through the 2nd half of the fantasy season. As we mention every week, we try to identify players who are widely unowned (and maybe even unknown) in most league formats. Here we go....

1. Jeff Keppinger (Shortstop - Cincinnati Reds) - "Hey, remember me?" That's what Kepp is saying after only being owned in 12% of leagues. He fractured his knee cap earlier in the season and is expected to rejoin the Reds later in the week. He was playing extremely well before going down with this injury, hitting .324, .821 OPS, 1.5 BB/K, and a 0.69 FPI in 148 AB. These big-time numbers aren't too shocking. In 2007, Kepp hit .332 in 241 AB with an .870 OPS, 2.0 BB/K, and a 0.73 FPI. He was likely dropped when he got injured to save room on rosters, but his ownership reached as high as 65% at one point this season. With Jerry Hairston injured, Keppinger should be able to return and resume his duties immediately. If you're looking for some average help and you need a SS, Keppinger is a great value pick-up.

2. Brian Giles (Outfield - San Diego Padres) - Everybody knows the name, but only 8% of fantasy leagues are taking notice of his .300+ average and .400+ OBP. With his power basically gone and playing for one of the worst offensive teams in the league, Giles gets forgotten about in San Diego. But he's posting some decent numbers and I'd almost guarantee there are lots of teams who have outfielders on their roster who are not posting a 0.72 FPI like Giles has achieved so far in 2008. Taking a look at his season, he's hitting .311 with a .422 OBP, .866 OPS, and a BB/K of 1.7. He has 30 runs scored, 23 RBI, and 24 of his 75 hits are for extra-bases. Extrapolating those numbers out to a full season, give him 73 runs, 184 hits, 7 HR, 56 RBI, and 112 BB. You will be hard-pressed to find a player with almost 200 hits and 100+ BB on the waiver wire, but Giles may offer that for 2008.

3. Alexei Ramirez (Second Base, Shortstop, Outfield - Chicago White Sox) - We were high on Ramirez earlier in the season and then he slipped off the radar when the Sox decided to split his time with Juan Uribe. But when Uribe hit the DL and Ramriez got an extended look, eyebrows were raised. Now, Uribe is back but Ramirez's bat is still in the lineup. Why? In May, the middle-infielder hit a respectable .295. In June, he's been smoking hot, hitting .455 with a .500 OBP and a 1.197 OPS. His ownership has been climbing steadily over the last few days, as he has posted 3 multi-hit games in the last four days. All leagues should particularly take notice of Ramirez's multiple position eligibility at two weak positions, 2B and SS. His ownership levels started in the teens %'s a few days ago and has already climbed into the 30%+ as of Value Pick Wednesday.

4. Ubaldo Jiminez - (Starting Pitcher - Colorado Rockies) - Ubaldo Jiminez is my value-pick 2-start pitcher for Fantasy Week 12. He'll face the Atlanta Braves in his first start and the New York Mets later in the week. While Jiminez's season has been largely disappointing, he does bring a few skills to the fantasy table that are worth considering for these two match-ups. First, he has already faced the Braves and pitched a quality start (in early April). In that outing, he earned the W and went 6.0 IP, 6 hits, 3 ER, 4 BB, and 3 K. Since May 1st, Jiminez is 3-for-7 in quality starts with a 5.09 ERA, 1.50 WHIP. Not the best, but remove one bad outing against the red-hot Phillies during that time period, he's suddenly at a 50% quality start % with a 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP. Even with that outing included in his numbers, he still has a 7.97 K/9, a 2.25 K/BB, and a stellar GO/AO of 2.12 (throwing twice as many groundball outs as flyball outs) since the beginning of May. The 24-year-old Jiminez has tons of talent and has been inconsistent, but remains an upside talent. With few value-pick options for next fantasy week, Jiminez is likely the best choice.

5. Hernan Iribarren - (Second Base, Milwaukee Brewers) - Paul wrote about Iribarren yesterday when Rickie Weeks went on the 15-Day DL with a sprained knee, but its worth reiterating his value in NL-only and deep rotisserie leagues. Iribarren was recalled from Triple-A to take his roster spot and will likely split some time with Joe Dillon, Craig Counsell and maybe even Bill Hall at 2nd Base over the next few weeks. But if you have a need (yes, a "need for speed"), then Iribarren is worth consideration. He already has 14 SB in 19 attempts in 2008, a large improvement from his previous three seasons of being caught at least 15 times. So, he's improving the running game and can be expected to turn on the burners if he reaches base. As for that ability (his ability to reach base), Iribarren had a slight drop in OBP in Triple-A this year at .342 compared to 2007 of .365. The drop in OBP is mostly driven by a drop in average from .307 to .274, because his batting eye has improved from a .40 BB/K to .63 this season. He's not a long-term solution, but if you had Rickie Weeks and want to add to your SB total for the next 15 days, Iribarren is a nice value option when he's playing.