As brother Drew so eloquently put it yesterday, we are splitting up the AL and NL value picks for Fantasy Week 19 and give you our risers and fallers by position. Today's focus will be the AL. Here we go:
Catcher – Risers
1. Brandon Inge - Pudge is out, Inge is in. He hasn't done much with the bat this year, but he hasn't exactly had consistent AB's either. Everyday play behind the plate should lead to an increase in production. He's better than his .221 average and brings multiple-position eligibility at a cheap price late in the season.
2. Kelly Shopach - Even when Victor Martinez comes back, Shopach should continue to see plenty of time behind the plate. He has 4 HR in his last 8 games and is swinging a red-hot bat right now. On the rise as a value pick.
Catcher – Fallers
1. Pudge Rodriguez – Putting Pudge as a "faller" was a tough decision, but its not without merit. The Tigers ranked slightly higher in runs scored and batting average than the Yankees, former catcher and Manager Joe Girardi will likely give Pudge plenty of rest making his playing time inconsisent, and Andy Pettitte has already shown he likes Jose Molina as his battery mate. And, he's an aging catcher late in the season. I don't see him breaking the .300 mark.
First Base – Risers
1. Billy Butler - If you haven't been able to tell from my writing this season, I'm bullish on Billy Butler. He's finally flexing his muscle and is hitting .339 with 5 HR and 20 RBI since the All-Star break. The potential has always been there - now it looks like its coming true. 1B is pretty deep, but Butler is a nice fill-in at a cheap value.
2. Chris Davis - Davis has multiple eligibility at 1B and 3B and is hitting .286 with 11 HR in just 126 AB (HR/AB of 11.5). The lefty has huge power and is making the most of his playing time. No signs of slowing down anytime soon - big-time AL-only talent if he's still available.
First Base – Fallers
1. Jason Giambi - His moustache is gone and so is his fantasy value. Ok, maybe his fantasy value isn't ALL gone, but it has certainly depreciated over the past month and a half. He hit .234 in July and .231 so far in August. After hitting 19 dingers in the first half, he has just 2 since the break. He's too streaky to count-on in fantasy formats when its all on the line.
2. Paul Konerko - As if his season couldn't get much worse, the addition of Ken Griffey Jr makes Paul Konerko the odd-man out on the south-side of Chicago. He'll likely be a platoon with Jim Thome at DH. Fantasy championships are not built on platoon situations.
Second Base – Risers
1. Placido Polanco - You know he's going to scatter hits and finish the season over .300. He hit .341 last year and is currently at .311. Sometimes you can still find him floating on the waiver wire. Definitely worth the pick-up.
2. Jose Lopez - His ownership has steadily been rising since Fantasy Week 13 and rightfully so. His 19-game hitting streak came to an end a couple of days ago, but he's still hitting .306 for the season.
Second Base – Fallers
1. Robinson Cano - We know Cano is a 2nd half stud and he has certainly proven it again in 2008. But recent hand injuries and a couple of games on the bench makes him a risky start during an integral time in the fantasy season. Only time will tell if the hand will affect his overall performance, but the risk is still there and that makes him a "faller."
Shortstop – Risers
1. Jhonny Peralta - Its all coming together for Peralta (except for his team's win/loss record). He banged out 16 HR in the first half of the season and although his HR's have cooled down a bit, he's still hitting .313 since the all-star break.
2. Derek Jeter - Tough to think that the Yankee Captain will finish with the lowest average of his career at 34 years old. The Yankees will make an August and September run and you know Jete will be involved. Hopefully his 17 GIDP is juts an anomaly and will cool-off for the remainder of the 2008 season.
Shortstop – Fallers
1. Orlando Cabrera - Hitting just .250 since the All-Star break and other than a hot June, has shown little progress at breaking out as a White Sox player. 15 SB pre-break and just 2 since then.
2. Mike Aviles - Wrote about him on Monday. He's hot as ever and comes cheap as the KC SS, but it'll catch up with him at some point and you don't want to be stuck trying to catch a falling knife.
Third Base – Risers
1. Chone Figgins - His batting average has shown a 48-point drop-off from last year's levels, but he still has 21 stolen bases in 29 attempts. And the addition of Mark Teixeira could mean a slight up-tick in runs scored. He's still hitting .288 and I would put money on him ending around the .300 mark.
2. Miguel Cabrera - Ok, so he plays first base now. The guy still has 3B eligibility in just about every league and he's hitting .298. Do you really think he's going to end the year hitting under .300 for the first time 2004? He's at 20 HR... wouldn't shock me to see him go on a tear and flirt with 30.
Third Base - Fallers
1. Alex Gordon - Its "now or never" for Gordon to break-out and be the fantasy all-star we all predicted. He hit .264 in the second half last season with 9 HR for a HR/AB of 27.8. So far he's hitting .260 with 2 HR, but his power will have to pick-up in the last 8 weeks of the season to give him any sort of fantasy momentum going into 2009.
2. Mike Lowell - To include the lovable Lowell in the Fallers category would be blasphemous north of Hartford, CT. But let's face it - Lowell has been somewhat disappointing in 2008, hitting .281 with 13 HR and 63 RBI after hitting .324 with 21 HR and 120 RBI last season. And, he opened his "vault" and let us know he's been playing for 5 weeks with a sore right hip flexor that required a cortisone shot right before the all-star break. Not good - and I don't like secrets.
Outfield – Risers
1. BJ Upton - Yup, I'm going down with the ship. BJ and I might have words this off-season if he doesn't break out, but he has some power upside for the remainder of the season.
2. Xavier Nady - Actually, he's not rising... he's already risen. Think he feels comfortable in the Bronx? He's hitting .400 with 4 HR and 11 RBI in 9 games and 30 AB. For you New Yorkers out there with the YES Network, expect a Yankeeography in about 3 weeks if this continues.
Outfield – Fallers
1. Carl Crawford - Knee and hammy issues make me nervous. Especially from a guy who relies on his speed for stolen bases and the extra base hit.
2. Milton Bradley - Another OF injury concern brings Milton Bradley's career year to a screeching halt. Today its his quad, tomorrow it will be something else.
Starting Pitcher – Risers
1. Tim Wakefield - Surprised? Don't be. This is one of my favorite value picks late in the season. As pitchers wear down, knuckle-ballers just cruise right along. Did I mention he's 15-for-22 in quality starts with a 3.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for one of the best team's in baseball? And he's only owned in 64% of CBS Sportsline leagues. Value at its best.
2. Rookie Call-ups - There are a few worth mentioning that deserve special attention - David Price (Rays), Gio Gonzalez (A's - debut start on Wednesday 8/5). And with injuries to Phil Hughes, Chien Ming Wang, and now Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy could get a 2nd chance and probably deserves another fantasy look if he pitches well his first time out.
Starting Pitcher - Fallers
1. Chien Ming Wang - If you thought he was coming back in September, make that October. Girardi basically eliminated any possibility of Wang making a start during the regular season.
2. Sean Marcum - Marcum's struggles have been well documented since returning from the DL. He has given up 16 ER in 14.2 IP. He had a great first half before that elbow sprain, but its unlikely he'll return to form.
-- Joe
