Preseason Prep - February 27th, 2009

Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick is the early frontrunner for the last spot in the Philadelphia rotation. They might be better off looking elsewhere. Kendrick has a career K rate of .422, and a terrible K/BB ratio of 1.43. If he is going to be even a 5th starter, he certainly needs to improve in those departments.

Carlos Carrasco – If the Phillies do decide against using Kendrick as their 5th start, they have stated that Carrasco is an option. He is just 22 YO, so the team may want him to get some more experience (only 6 GS at the AAA level). However, he has a much higher K rate than Kendrick. Even if he may not be quite ready yet, he certainly has much more potential than Kendrick to have some staying power in a major league rotation.

Jorge Posada – Posada went 2-2 and homered in a Spring Training game yesterday. Fantasy players that hope he can recapture his magical ’07 season are dreaming. Posada had a lucky season; his singles averages from ’05 to ’08 are (.243/.244/.314/.248). Yeah, if you don’t see the outlier there you are in denial. Mike Napoli, going on average 3 rounds after Posada, is a safer pick and better value.

Orlando Cabrera – The Athletics are not very close to reaching a deal with Cabrera, as Cabrera wants about double what the A’s are willing to pay for him. The A’s are clearly not satisfied with the once promising Bobby Crosby, but are willing to move forward with him as the team’s starting SS if Cabrera’s demands do not drop. Over a full season, Cabrera would be worth fantasy consideration, as (over the past 3 years) he has scored an average of 96.3 runs, stolen an average of 22 bases, and hit around .288.

Nomar Garciaparra – It appears that the Athletics and the Phillies are the top two teams after Nomar Garciaparra. From a fantasy standpoint it is almost irrelevant. Nomar does not offer much more than name recognition these days. At age 35, he is clearly on the decline, posting an OPS below 800 the past two seasons. He has a high contact rate and solid EYE, but it is not expected to translate into good fantasy numbers. A good example and just part of the reason why: Nomar’s LD% has decreased dramatically since 2005 (25.4%/20.1/19.3/17.5).

Matt LaPorta – LaPorta homered in a ST game yesterday. He became one of, if not the, top prospect in the Cleveland farm system last season, when the Tribe traded away CC Sabathia. He is not expected to start the season with Cleveland. A big spring could train that, but if not he will most likely be called up during the season and is someone to keep an eye on.

Manny Ramirez – What is it going to take for the Dodgers to sign Manny Ramirez? Ramirez just turned down a 2 year 45 million dollar offer, and it is unclear if they are willing to pay him much more. Even more disturbing, the Dodgers are saying that negotiations will have to start from scratch now. It’s inevitable that Ramirez will be signed before the start of the season, but with whom? The Dodgers are still the most likely candidate, but by the time this deal gets done, is it going to affect the start of Manny’s season?

Russell Branyan – Apparently the Seattle Mariners are prepared to hand the starting 1B job over to Russell Branyan. It’s his to lose according to manager Don Wakamatsu. This comes as a bit of a surprise; Branyan is a career .230 hitter and is 33 YO. However, he could be a good value in points or H2H leagues (way too much of a BA killer in roto leagues). Branyan has shown power at every major league stop, averaging a HR just over every 15 at bats for his career. Over 500 AB’s that’s around 33 round trippers. Branyan walks at a decent rate too, 12.3% of the time for his career.

Johan Santana – Santana was supposed to pitch in a “B” game yesterday morning, but he was scratched due to elbow soreness. It apparently stiffened up after a bullpen session on Wednesday. Right now the move is just cautionary, but since Santana will come at a high price in auction drafts and a high pick on snake and straight drafts, this is certainly something to keep your eye on.

Javier Vazquez – This might be a breakout year for Vazquez. Regression to the mean along with a move to the NL will certainly help Vazquez. You may not realize that Vazquez has struck out 413 batters the past two seasons as well as logging at least 200 IP in 8 of the past 9 seasons, with the one non-200 IP season being a 198 IP year. Last year his expected ERA was .45 points lower than his actual ERA his average of balls in play was 20 points above his 4 year established average. So, look for Vazquez to have one of his best seasons in recent memory.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays may not have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, but this year their players may have added fantasy value due to a gradual shift in philosophy that should come to fruition this season. For years under GM JP Ricciardi, the Blue Jays subscribed to the Billy Beane theory of moving station to station, as a result of the idea that stolen bases were a bit overrated. In 2003, the Blue Jays were dead last in the Majors with a whopping 37 steals. Five players individually stole more bases than the Blue Jays team that year! Things got a little better for the Jays in the speed department after that, but not by much. From 2004 – 2007, the Jays averaged 63 steals a season, never finished above 17th in the Majors. In 2008 though, the Jays stole 80 bags (their highest total since 2001), most of them under Cito Gaston, who took over as manager about half through the season when Jon Gibbons was fired. Gaston believes the Blue Jays will continue to steal more bags as well this year. As I said before, this is not the most powerful lineup, so Gaston believes the Jays will need to manufacture runs if they are going to contend. That’s a term that in the past under this regime seemed to be taboo. Gaston, on a Toronto Star report, went as far as to liken the Jays to the ’89 Jays team he managed, a team that stole 144 bases (with 7 players finishing with at least double digit totals). This shift in ideology certainly boosts the fantasy value of players on the Jays with speed who have previously been held back on the base paths: players such as Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, and Adam Lind. Rios in particular, flashed his speed last season swiping 32 bags. Look for him to duplicate those totals again this season.

Vernon Wells – Wells hired a personal trainer this offseason, which cost him a pretty penny, in an attempt to stay healthy, get stronger, and avoid the nagging injuries that he has experienced the past few seasons. Money not well spent Vernon. During the opening week of Spring Training, Wells strained his left hamstring. He did the same thing last year and missed up to a month. This is a cause for concern for a couple of reasons. First of all, how durable is Wells? If this is the same injury that he suffered last season, it seems to me he is likely to reinjure it again. Also, Wells has not exactly been confused with Cal Ripken the past couple of seasons. Okay, I might be exaggerating, but Wells also broke his wrist last season, and in 2007 he was forced to undergo shoulder surgery. He spent a total of 69 days on the disabled list the past two seasons. Secondly, even if Wells, as Lou reported a couple days ago, is able to return in two weeks (as Wells intends to), how long will it take him to get into a good groove at the plate? Over his career, Wells has a lowly .260/.313/.457 line in March/April. The only year he seemed to get off to a real hot start was 2006, when he participated in the World Baseball Classic. Not only will Wells have the WBC to get him locked in for the season opener, he will be behind at least two weeks due to this injury. Expect him to get off to a rocky start.

Coco Crisp – Crisp hopes to be an integral part of a Royals team that may be a lot better than most people expect. However, Crisp probably will not be better than we expect this season. Sure, he had a good start to his Royal’s career. Batting leadoff in a Spring Training game yesterday, Crisp went 2-3, including a long HR. Don’t be fooled though, Crisp has very little power (averaged 7 HR the past 3 seasons) and does not even hit for a high average. Last season Crisp hit .283, his best since 2005, but he needed a singles average that was 20 points above his previous three year average in order to do it. That’s why we only have Crisp projected for a .274 average. For a leadoff man, Crisp probably won’t score that many runs either as his low average and so-so walk rate (just under 9% the past two seasons) lead to a below average OBP (.331 for his career). Crisp should only be considered if you are desperate for speed, as he could swipe 20+ bags this season.

Kyle Davies – The Royals are excited about the team they are fielding this year, and feel they may even be able to contend if certain players perform well, in particular one of their projected starters Kyle Davies. I wouldn’t count on it Royals fans. Although, Davies’ impressive September to end last season (4-1, 2.27 ERA) coupled with a seemingly strong ST start yesterday (2 scoreless innings) may be giving fans false hope. Davies undoubtedly showed improvement last September, but I don’t think it was anything more than a blip in the long run. He still finished the season with just a 1.65 K/BB ratio. Meanwhile, his 4.06 ERA was low thanks to his BABIP and LOB%. Davies BABIP allowed was .309, 18 points below his career average of .327. His LOB% was 71.7%, 4.3 percentage points higher than his career average. So, it comes as no surprise that his expected ERA was actually 4.42. Even his win total (9) was higher than his expected win total (6). Davies is not a sleeper pitcher this year; he is a pitcher you should avoid.

Colorado Rockies – The Rockies outfield will look quite differently this opening day than it did last year’s. They certainly knew what they were getting last year with All-Star Matt Holliday returning in LF, speedster Willy Taveras in CF, and Brad Hawpe in RF, fresh off of a breakout season. This year, Seth Smith figures to take over for Matt Holliday, who was traded during the offseason. Smith is a big question mark there, having only 116 career at bats under his belt. Smith had a quality minor league career, and was impressive at AAA. During the past two seasons, Smith hit .317/.381/.528 and .323/.426/.524 in his only two seasons at the AAA level. Most impressive was the fact that Smith improved his EYE, drawing as many walks as he did strikeouts last season. That tells me that it is possible for Smith to succeed despite his lack of experience, and you never quite know what Coors Field can do for a hitter. In CF, Ryan Spilborghs will take over. Spilborghs might make for a good late round pick since he is solid all around. He won’t post eye popping numbers anywhere; but 70 RBI’s, 70 RS, a .300 AVG, and double digits steals and HR’s certainly make him useful, particularly in NL only leagues. Meanwhile, Hawpe is the only returning starter in RF. He regressed a bit last season as he suffered a 49 point drop in his OPS. It will be interesting to see how Hawpe reacts now that he has more pressure due to Holliday’s departure. Expect him to be hit somewhere between his ’07 and ’08 totals. Also, make sure to lookout for Carlos Gonzalez this spring. He came over during the Holliday trade, and he could win out a starting OF spot from Seth Smith. In fact, we have him projected getting 500+ AB’s.

Colorado Closer Situation – Huston Street and Manny Corpas will battle it out to earn the closer’s role. Street is the early favorite. He has more talent and more experience closing. It will be interesting though to see if his GB/FB ratio will really hurt him in Colorado. Over the past three seasons, Street’s average GB/FB ratio is .88. Manny Corpas is on the other end of the spectrum. He has posted astound GB/FB ratios of 2.03 and 1.79 the past two seasons. Corpas, though, has a relatively low strikeout rate for a closer. His career 6.39 K/9 pales into comparison to Street’s 9.07 K/9. So Street is the early favorite, but if his FB tendencies get him into trouble early we could see Corpas emerge as the team’s closer, particularly if he is able to improve his K rate.