Ichiro - Another 0-fer yesterday extends Ichiro's current skid to 1-18, and drops his batting average down to .272 for the year and .213 for the month. Yes, Ichiro's BABIP is rather low for him thus far, but with speed playing a critical factor in the maintenance of a high BABIP as a ground-ball hitter, I'm less optimistic about positive regression than I would be in many circumstances. Sure, I expect that Ichiro will end the season with an AVG between .290-.310, but that, combined with a slowly declining SB success% and a moribund supporting cast, make Ichiro a substantially overvalued commodity. I would absolutely be looking to deal the 37 year old if given the chance....there are interesting parallels here to the Derek Jeter situation.
Guillermo Moscoso - I'm not sure how long Guillermo Moscoso has to prove himself at the big league level, but with a 1.2 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 during his minor league tenure (almost half of which has been at the AAA level), he certainly has the peripherals to justify "sleeper" status in most formats. Moscoso will start today against the Orioles, and would seem to be a worthwhile gamble in AL-only formats and deeper mixed leagues for this outing at least.
Brett Lawrie - Brett Lawrie had another two homers (and a single and double) yesterday to bring his line up to 350/409/659 for the season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays haven't gotten a hit from a 3B in two weeks, as Jayson Nix, Mike McCoy, Edwin Encarnacion, and John McDonald are all scuffling. Sure, Lawrie's numbers in Las Vegas have to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's no denying that he looks ready offensively (he has 11 SB's as well). I don't think Toronto will wait too much longer before handing over the 3B job, so be ready with a waiver wire grab, as Lawrie will be a must-have in all formats.
Casey Kotchman - Another single and a double yesterday for Kotchman, who continues to defy all expectations and remains hot. Kotchman is still just 28 years old, and credits an offseason eye surgery for his renewed contact skills here in 2011. Some regression is obviously expected, but he's begun to hit for more power here in the latter half of May (4 XBH in his past 6 games) without any deterioration in contact, and no one has ever doubted his ability to hit for average. He's still a LD/GB hitter with little speed, but a line of 300/360/430 at year's end wouldn't surprise me very much.
Matt Harrison - Six shutout innings yesterday give Harrison four straight quality starts, despite peripherals that scream out for regression. There are just enough positives, however, that I'm inclined to value Harrison as a #4 or #5 starter in most formats despite the likelihood of poorer results going forward. The two biggest items are a velocity bump for the third straight season, and the fact that he has historically show the ability to post a better than expected BABIP, although perhaps not quite to this year's extent. The BB:K ratio is awful, which would give me pause in shallower leagues, but there's enough evidence that he can maintain success without it that I'd feel comfortable using him in any deeper formats.
