Giants first base - Brandon Belt is a guy who has the potential to provide plenty of upside for fantasy owners at a bargain rate. I can see Belt hitting .290/.380/.500 if given the chance given that he did hit .320/.461/.528 in the minors last year before not faring nearly as well in his first taste of major league pitching. Aubrey Huff reportedly worked very hard in the offseason after being embarrassed of last year's pitiful .246/.306/.370 performance. Still, Huff is 35 and Belt just 23, and at some point you have to look beyond who has what experience and what contract and focus on the future.
Padres first base - Not much new here, but manager Bud Black did say that Yonder Alonso is not going to be simply handed the first base job. We assume that means that Alonso will have to stack up well versus Jesus Guzman. That said, given that the Padres gave up their best pitcher in Mat Latos for Alonso and others, they really want to see Alonso win the job. Guzman though is no slouch, having batted .312/.369/.478 in 76 games for the Padres in his first significant taste of big league pitching. Guzman though is 28, and expecting him to repeat over the course of 600 PA's is asking a lot. He is a career .305/.373/.480 hitter in the minors, but he's probably nothing more than filler for the rebuilding Padres, who could look to trade him should Alonso win the job.
Padres bullpen - The Padres acquired Huston Street over the winter to take over for Health Bell, and with Mike Adams also traded last year, there isn't an obvious successor should San Diego look to deal Street this summer. Assumedly, that guy would be Luke Gregerson, but after seeing Gregerson's K/9 rate drop from 11.2 and 10.2 in 2009-2010 to 5.5 in 2011, he might not be the right guy for the job, especially considering his walk rate rose. That leaves Ernesto Frieri (10.9 K/9 in 2011), Andrew Cashner (young, big fastball, potential move to rotation), and Brad Boxberger (13.5 K/9 in the minors last year) as potential closers of the future. I like Boxberger long term, so stash him on your keeper roster in deeper leagues. He's a former first-round supplemental pick who has done nothing but miss bats as a pro.
Rockies catcher situation - The Rockes are reportedly looking at Rosario making the 25-man roster and playing two-to-three times a week. This is nice and all, but isn't the 23 year-old better-served getting regular at-bats at the Triple-A level? The Rockies signed 35 year-old Ramon Hernandez to a two-year deal this winter, assumedly to be the starter, but perhaps they are looking at a 60/40 split between the two? Rosario is the future, but despite homering 21 times at the Double-A level last year, his .249/.284/.457 batting line highlights a lack of discipline (4% BB%) that tends to make us think he could use further seasoning. His power (.259 ISO in 54 big league at-bats last year) is already there, but unless the Rockies are willing to endure a catcher with a sub-.300 OBP, they may very well figure out they are best-served by rolling with Hernandez until Rosario shows further progress.
Arizona shortstop - It's sounding likely now that Stephen Drew (ankle) will not be ready by Opening Day and could be out significantly longer. In fact, Drew was quoted on the team's website that he is at "month seven" of what doctors say is a year-long process. Now there are some players that beat their return timetables, often significantly, but this is a Drew brother we're talking about here. I like the above-average power from a shortstop, but he's only a career .270 hitter who won't steal many bases and you have the injury concerns. I'd avoid like the plague. I think the Diamondbacks can compete for the pennant in a weak NL West, but they are now looking at an Opening Day infield of Paul Goldschmidt (great pop, but sub-.250 hitter), Aaron Hill (terrible since 2009), John McDonald (can't hit), and Ryan Roberts (fluke 2011?). Ugly.
Dodgers infield - James Loney is locked in at first base, with Mark Ellis, Dee Gordon, and Juan Uribe expected to round out one of the worse infields in baseball. None of the four are a lock to be average offensively, though from a fantasy perspective, Gordon appears to have the most value with his 50 stolen base potential. As for Uribe, we don't have to tell you that a .204/.264/.293 batting line is abysmal. Expect a rebound, but the average projection for his 2012 seems to be in the .240/.300/.390 range with about a dozen home runs. Think perhaps the new ownership will want to make a run at David Wright this summer? If you're wondering whether help for this quartet could come from within, don't. Jerry Hairston could easily outperform Ellis and Uribe, but he's not going to carry a fantasy team. Same with Adam Kennedy. Jerry Sands could eventually be an option at first base, but will he get a chance. All in all, this is an infield to avoid.
Darwin Barney (2B-CHC) - I always hesitate to comment on these "best shape of their life" stories, but just take these reports in context. Barney isn't going to turn into Robinson Cano overnight just because he got in better shape in the offseason, but adding a whopping 20 pounds of muscle is notable. Hopefully it didn't come from partaking in the Ryan Braun training regimen, but we'll give Barney the benefit of the doubt. He batted .306 before the break but just .238 after, likely due (according to him) to simply getting tired. We'll see if this helps, but Barney isn't much of a fantasy player outside of his ability to potentially hit .280. He did steal nine bases for the Cubs last year and homered just twice, finishing with just 21% of his 146 hits being for extra bases. NL-only filler at best.
Shaun Marcum (SP-MIL) - Marcum is already dealing with a sore shoulder this spring, so I'd knock him down a few slots on your draft lists. He appeared to struggle with the shoulder down the stretch last year, though he and the team are downplaying the issue this spring. That's to be taken with a grain of salt, as continued shoulder issues don't always go away without medical intervention. Marcum of course missed all of 2009 due to Tommy John surgery and he dealt with elbow soreness in 2010, so arm woes are nothing new. He has combined for 64 starts over the past two years, but watch his progress closely this spring. Marcum is a soft-tosser, averaging just 87 mph with this fastball, so a little drop in velocity won't kill him.
Carlos Lee (1B/OF) - Lee is dealing with a sore right hamstring, though at 35, you have to expect something to be sore on his body each spring. Lee enters the final season of a six-year $100 million deal, and he's been very durable, reaching 155+ games in four of the previous five seasons of that deal. Lee rebounded from an ugly 2010 to bat .275/.342/.446, though his 18 home runs were the lowest mark of his career since his 1999 rookie season. Perhaps due in part to the lack of quality around him, Lee bumped his BB% from 6% to 9%, and now that the lineup is even worse, that number could continue to rise. He'll qualify at first base and the outfield this year, and even at his advanced age, there appears at least to be more left in the tank.
Anibal Sanchez (SP-FLA) - Sanchez is dealing with shoulder soreness, and though that's far from uncommon this time of year, it bears closer scrutiny given Sanchez's history of shoulder issues. He's been healthy the last two seasons, posting 32 starts a year with sub 3.70 ERAs. In 2011, Sanchez took his game up a notch, raising his year-over-year K/9 rate from 7.3 to 9.3 while dropping his BB/9 a couple notches from 3.2 to 2.9. He's also generating more groundballs the last couple years than he did earlier in his career. We're not sure yet what his true level is and whether he has another step in him, but at age 28, he still has a few good years left, though the shoulder is a bit of a concern.
Corey Hart (OF-MIL) - Brewers manager Ron Roenicke said Friday that he expected Corey Hart along with perhaps other Brewers, would get more stolen base opportunities this year. It's clearly welcome news for his fantasy owners, as Hart has averaged just 14 attempts in the last three years after averaging 30 a year in 2007-2008. While Hart may have seen his SB numbers drop, the power has remained along with the .285ish batting average. In fact, after homering once every 35 at-bats in 2009, Hart has homered at a clip of 18.0 and 18.9 the last two seasons, posting ISO's of .242 and .226. If he can bump the SB number back into the 12 range, that can only help his fantasy value.
Francisco Cordero (RP-???) - Cordero appears close to picking a team, with one of the finalists being the Angels. Makes sense, as it would likely be a one-year deal, giving Jordan Walden another year to develop in a setup role. Cordero would assumedly close for the Angels, but the team he chooses will go a long way in where we slot Cordero on our reliever rankings. Just something to be aware of if you draft this weekend and are targeting Walden as a closer.
Jesus Montero (DH-SEA) - The Mariners are reportedly going to give Montero every opportunity to be their everyday catcher. Montero logged just three games at catcher (14 at DH) a year ago, so he won't qualify at the position in many leagues right away, but barring severe defensive struggles this spring, it shouldn't be long before he's eligible. Safeco doesn't help, but he's still big and talented enough to slug 20 homers and bat .290 as early as this year. We're not sure whether the .323 and .339 BABIPs he posted in the minors the past two years will hold up at the MLB level, but those numbers are an indicator of how hard he hits the ball - not his speed obviously. Giving up a Michael Pineda had to be tough, but this is a deal that's going to work out just fine for Seattle.
Alfonso Soriano (OF-CHC) - File this one under "thanks, but no thanks" - Soriano has graciously volunteered to bat leadoff for the Cubs this year. Soriano has posted OBPs of .303, 322, and .289 the past three years. Along with the OBP decline, he's also stolen just 16 bases during that timeframe while swatting 70 home runs. Less than a week ago, it was reported that Soriano would receive consideration for the cleanup spot, but hopefully common sense prevails and he opens in the six hole. Soriano batted just .244 last year, though considering his .268 BABIP, expect that number to be more in the .270 range in 2012.
Michael Saunders (OF-SEA) - Saunders homered on Friday, giving him a boost in his battle to win the Mariners' CF job this year. With Franklin Gutierrez out for about a month, he'll get a look along with Casper Wells for significant April at-bats. Saunders was a huge bust last year, batting just .149/.207/.217 in 161 big league at-bat after a solid .864 OPS in Triple-A. Saunders has just a .569 in 572 big league at-bats over a period of three seasons, so this could really be a make or break year. Wells is 27 without much of a track record himself, so Saunders has a real shot here.
Grant Balfour (RP-OAK) - Balfour took a step back (temporary?) in his bid to be Oakland's closer Friday, allowing a pair of homers against the Mariners. Balfour is battling Brian Fuentes, the oft-injured Joey Devine, and a sleeper in Fautino De Los Santos for the job. Balfour is the favorite, though this doesn't help his cause. He finished 2011 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 62 innings of work while averaging close to 93 mph with his fastball. Balfour is also a trade candidate given that he makes a seven-figure salary for the cash-strapped A's, but as long as Friday was an aberration, look for Balfour to win the job.
