Tommy Hanson - Hanson is coming off a 4th straight season of increasing ERA, to go along with increasing walk totals and declining velocity the past two seasons. Combine that with a move to the more difficult league for 2013, and Hanson definitely looks like someone to avoid. He really hasn't looked right to be since the All-Star Break in 2011, at which point he was coming of of six straight quality starts but had shown a moderately-sized drop in velocity. He had five more starts after the break, two of them QS, before going on the shelf for the remainder of the year with shoulder tendonitis. He also missed time with a back strain last year, but he hasn't had that shoulder cut open yet, and I do emphasize yet, because every indication is that it is still a concern. If healthy, Hanson is a 26 year old starter with a track record of success, but I'm inclined to let others take the gamble on that "if" in 2013.
Dan Haren - 32 year old Dan Haren is heading back to the NL, and while some warning signs are there after a markedly less effective 2012 with the Angels that included a second straight year of velocity loss, I still believe that Haren will prove to be a very serviceable starter with the Nationals. He's durable, he still has excellent control, and his biggest negative (HR%) is going to be muted a bit in the league switch. I expect a solid bounceback campaign for Haren in 2013.
Lorenzo Cain - Cain did indeed show off a bit of his intriguing power/speed potential in 2012, going 10/10 on the basepaths while hitting 7 homers in just 61 games, but the nagging injuries were definitely the story of his season. The good news for fantasy owners here is that the limited exposure might allow Cain to be a bargain here in 2013, as with a bit better luck this year with BABIP could see him post something like .280-15-25 in an improving offense. He's definitely someone that I would target in all formats this year.
Adam Eaton - The 24 year old Eaton looks like a very solid acquisition this year in traditional 5X5 formats, as despite just 2 steals at the big league level in over 100 ABs last year he has managed over 40 SB in each of his two minor league seasons. He isn't completely devoid of power, but his style of hitting (extremely high GB%) isn't going to be conducive to big power numbers. Nonetheless, he should provide plenty of punch in the AVG, R, and SB categories if he does manage to emerge from camp as the starting CF, something that looks very likely at this point.
Brian Roberts - At age 35 and coming off of three straight years with major injury issues, it's really anyone's guess what to expect from Roberts. He comes into camp as the favorite to start at 2B for the O's, and if he can give you anything close to the production that he offered from 2005-2009 (roughly .290-13-37 for 5 years), he's a must-have. By all reports he's healthy to begin camp, making him one of the players that I will be most curious about once the Grapefruit League games begin. He is an intriguing sleeper for 2013, particularly in 5X5 formats assuming that his speed has held up.
Shane Victorino - I expect a solid rebound this season from the Flyin' Hawaiian, who appears to be heading to a park that is a nearly perfect fit for his style of play. Fenway is XBH Central, basically the opposite of Dodger Stadium, and Victorino has typically offered quite a bit of value via 2B and 3B. We may see a bit of a drop in HR for him, but with his still excellent speed he should be an excellent fit in head-to-head formats this year, and is expected to remain a solid 2nd or 3rd OF in traditional formats as well.
Tyler Flowers - Tyler Flowers is finally getting a chance to pick up some playing time with the departure of A.J. Pierzynski, and just in time for his age-27 season to boot. The massive K numbers are going to limit his upside, but Flowers has easy 20-HR power (he hit 20 HR in 2011 between AAA and MLB in barely over 100 games) and will draw a walk. He'll be a solid value option in any league that values OBP, but will be limited to 2nd-catcher value in most formats due to the likelihood of a painfully low AVG.
Aroldis Chapman - I'm definitely anxious to see what the Reds are going to do with Chapman, as his value can go a lot of different ways here. It looks like he will be the fifth starter at this point, and he'll probably be on some sort of innings/pitch limit (although with Dusty you never know). He still could offer a lot of value from that slot, but likely a bit less for fantasy purposes than if he were still closing. That two-pitch arsenal might cause an issue with his effectiveness as well, although I still think he would be well above average. His talent is great enough that I would still be happy owning him without knowing his role, but I'd limit my acquisition cost ceiling a bit.
Andy Dirks - I remain a big Dirks fan, as improved contact rate, power numbers, and LD rate showed him providing solid value in an injury-plagued 344 PAs last season. He comes into camp this year still owning the good side of the LF platoon, and at age 27 he may break out just a little bit more this season. I'd like to see him run more, as he still does possess good speed (he stole 2 in 10 games on minor league rehab), but hitting in front of Cabrera and Fielder necessarily limits his opportunities to run. He still remains a very underrated OF bat with further upside potential.
Bruce Rondon - It's still mid-February, but the defending AL champs appear to be anointing 22 year old prospect Bruce Rondon as the frontrunner for the closer's role vacated by the overrated and despised (by me, anyway, and a few thousand others) Jose Valverde. Rondon began last year in A-ball, but he touches 100 with his fastball and saved 29 games at three levels in the minors, so he must be closer material. He has the requisite control issues of all hard throwing relief arms, and my biggest concern for his value is the presence of Joaquin Benoit and Brayan Villarreal, two very underrated relief arms that have already performed well at the top level. Rondon is the frontrunner, simply because management has said so, but the situation will definitely merit watching as spring rolls on....the closer's role on a winning team is certainly going to provide value for whomever can earn it.
Jose Veras - Jose Veras absolutely has the ability to become a mediocre closer for Houston in 2013. Lest you think I'm damning with faint praise, that's pretty lofty territory for a guy that has been a completely fungible middle reliever now hitting his sixth team in five years. Veras still has a live arm, he still strikes out a bunch of folks, and he still has trouble finding the plate at times...the sum total of which is pretty average. The Astros think he is their best option at the back of the bullpen right now, and I think they're probably right, so look for a low-4.00's ERA, a mediocre WHIP, some decent K totals and 20-25 saves out of Veras.
Pedro Florimon - Only the Twins, in this day and age, would go into the season with their best SS option consisting of a 26 year old that has virtually no power, strikes out a ton, and isn't likely to hit .250. Florimon may give you some steals, but I doubt the rest of the warts will make it worth your while.
Grant Balfour - Balfour had a very solid year last year, especially for a guy that was yanked out of the closer's role for almost three months in the middle of the season. If given a full year in the job, I expect he'll be in the top half of the closer ranks, but he does seem to have less job security than most. I would still value him as a mid-tier closing option for 2013, with an ERA near 3.00, a WHIP just north of 1.00, and 30 saves a solid bet.
Domonic Brown - There are always a few guys that seem to get blocked year after year by decision that their organizations make, and right now Domonic Brown has got to be near the top of that illustrious list. The signing of Delmon Young throws Brown into a competition with John Mayberry and Darin Ruf for the LF job, and there's no way you can look at the Phillies' treatment of Brown and think that he's the frontrunner. The problem here is that the Phils are getting all excited over Ruf's age 25 season in AA last year, which amounted to a 317/408/620 slash line. Somehow they've forgotten that Domonic Brown did the same thing at AA (318/391/602) three years ago......when he was 22. Brown also has more speed and is still a year younger than Ruf, but God help him if he struggles for a day or two. I still think there is an enormous amount of potential here, but it isn't worth paying for without some guarantee of playing time. He is certainly one to watch during camp, because any misfortune to Ruf or Young and Brown's value will skyrocket.
Kolten Wong - One look at the Cardinal 2B situation will definitely tell you that as soon as they think Kolten Wong is ready, he's coming to St. Louis. Dan Descalso and Peter Kozma are backup guys, and with Wong putting up a solid season at AA last year at age 21, he could be ready sometime mid-season in 2013. He would definitely be on my list of reserve options in deeper leagues with an eye toward using him down the stretch.
