Mike Carp ,OF - SEA (for now) - It definitely looks like Mike Carp will be heading out of town this week after a marginally surprising designation for assignment last week, and that should put all of us on alert for some "leaving Seattle sleeper potential". One obvious potential destination is Milwaukee, where Mat Gamel just went down with a major injury for the second straight season, but I'm sure there are other teams kicking the tires as well. Carp is hitting his age-27 season coming off an injury-plagued campaign in which he only managed a .213 AVG and 5 HR in 164 ABs, but he did manage 33 HRs and a much more respectable slash line between two levels in 2011. Depending on where he lands, I could see him pushing 20 HRs, and while AVG is never likely to be a strong point with his swinging strike%. he did have especially bad luck on balls in play last year....I would imagine .245-.255 is more in line with what we ought to expect. Stay tuned the next few days for news on his fate, and barring a deal into a situation where he's really blocked for time I think he could provide close to average offensive production for an OF.
Dustin Ackley, 2B - SEA - I think it's safe to say that something will give this year for the 25 year old Ackley, if only because the M's might actually have some other options this year if he continues to scuffle. Ackley had a disastrous 2012, offering up 12 HRs and 13 SBs to go along with 84 R....only amassing that much in the way of counting stats because he made it to the plate 668 times. He had fairly awful luck on balls in play, so some positive AVG regression should be expected, but really the hope here is that the offseason surgery on his left ankle will allow him to push off of his back foot better at the plate this year. Ackley has very good strike zone control and good speed, but despite the pedigree there has been little to suggest any expectation of massive improvement. His ability to stay healthy and his lineup spot do indicate that any small improvement will push him into a category of player that will help you: 100 R and 15-20 SB aren't out of the question, and he does hit enough line drives that you'd expect an AVG more like .270-.285 than what he did last year. Plus, he's still just 25, so perhaps 15-20 HR power is coming as well. A lot has to go right, but I'm not completely ready to write him off just yet....the Mariners really did push him pretty quickly through the system so it's possible there was some growth consolidation involved here. I would rate him slightly more highly than his prior performance would indicate at present.
Alexei Ramirez, SS - CWS - Ramirez is now claiming that he injured his wrist July 27th of last year and that it bothered him the rest of the way.....if I were him I would claim the pinky fingernail that he tore off in late August instead, because August was clearly his best month of a very poor 2012. Ramirez doesn't walk, has average power, and turned 31 this offseason. He can basically be expected to give you average production across the board, which definitely has value in many formats, but expecting much different after five years is really more wishing than expecting. His ability to stay in the lineup is probably his greatest attribute, and that alone should maintain some value in all formats for the White Sox SS.
Jeff Keppinger, 3B - CWS - Jeff Keppinger is going into 2013 holding the starting 3B job for Chicago, but really, we all know what the soon-to-be 33 year old is going to give you: a bunch of singles. Keppinger isn't a bad guy to throw on a deeper league roster, particularly in AL-only formats where you can run him out there cheaply knowing he won't hurt you in anything in all likelihood, but in terms of upside there's virtually none. I like the possibility of Brent Morel breaking out a bit this year if his back is healthy....I liked it last year and I'm pretty stubborn. If that comes to pass, Keppinger will likely still get ABs, because he can play pretty much anywhere in a pinch, and the White Sox have a few guys that are prone to some hefty slumps. Deeper leagues only here.
Travis Hafner, DH - NYY - Honestly, I'm pretty excited about Travis Hafner DHing in New York. Granted, he just simply isn't able to stay healthy that much anymore, but he's still just 35 and has remained very productive when able to play. Since he's going to play playing half of his games in what might be the perfect park for him, it's certainly realistic to expect solid production from him. He isn't likely to play more than 2/3 of the time between platooning and the inevitable health concerns, but he should be a nice little sleeper this year in formats of any depth, even if he is only eligible at DH under normal rules.
Austin Romine, C - NYY - Honestly, does anyone think the Yankees are going all season with Cervelli and Stewart behind the dish? Austin Romine missed most of last season with a lower back injury, but he put up solid if unspectacular numbers in A and AA ball from age 19-21, and he's still just 24 with infinitely more upside than the aforementioned veterans. If you're looking for a second catcher in deeper formats and are allowed to roster players who might not be in the majors to start the year, you could probably do worse than throwing a buck here. He has decent gap power, a bit of speed for a backstop, and has shown decent abilities to hit for average and maintain plate discipline.
Hunter Morris, 1B - MIL - Mat Gamel's horrendous fortune continues, as he has somehow re-torn his ACL right in the middle of the repaired section from last season, basically ensuring that he will miss the entire 2013 campaign. The Brewers are exploring other alternatives at 1B, including recently designated Mike Carp from Seattle, but assistant GM Gord Ash has said that Hunter Morris is one of the favorites for the job at this point. Morris is a 2010 4th round draftee out of Auburn that put up great numbers in the Southern League last year (303/357/563) on the heels of a fairly mediocre season at Brevard County in 2011 (271/299/461). Morris is a fairly impatient hitter, but he does have some power and has increased his AVG at each of his three steps thus far as well. Stranger things have happened, but with his BB and K numbers combined with his struggles against LHP, I'd be surprised if he's ready to perform at the MLB level. Taylor Green is another option if the Brewers stay in-house, but after a subpar 2012 he is likely viewed as a backup plan. Green is basically a slightly more patient version of Morris, with the added benefit of having played more at the higher levels, and is still just 26. I would consider him a solid late-game sleeper in NL-only leagues right now. I expect the Brewers to make a deal, but if they don't Morris or Green could potentially provide some value in deeper formats.
Scott Sizemore, 2B/3B - OAK - The Oakland IF situation is a mess right now after the Jed Lowrie acquisition, and it is distinctly possible that not one player in that infield will play more than 2/3 of the time, but if we rewind back to spring 2012 we can revisit Scott Sizemore's sleeper case. At times in the minors Sizemore has shown the ability to hit .300, hit 15 HRs, and steal 15 bases, and if he were to win a full-time job the likelihood of a .280-12-15 year would be reasonable in my estimation, but this is going to take some time to sort out this spring. Sizemore is competing directly with Jemile Weeks for time at 2B, and indirectly with Jed Lowrie and Josh Donaldson for any playing time at all. In fact, the Athletics appear to have multiple starting-caliber (at least via potential) at almost every spot on the diamond, so perhaps another deal is in the works. As far as the IF goes, Lowrie is probably the best player of the bunch, while Nakajima appears to have the SS job locked up before anyone sees him play against MLB competition, while Moss will play against RHP at 1B. I think Sizemore is probably the best player at 2B, and would love to have him on my squad if he wins the playing time, but we won't know much there for a few weeks.
Peter Bourjos, OF - LAA - After a complete cipher of a 2012 season, Peter Bourjos remains a potential impact OF bat. Bourjos hit 19 homers and swiped 37 bases as a 23 year old between AAA and MLB, and a solid first full season in 2011 lent hopes for a breakout last year. Instead he was shoved aside by Mike Trout, picking up only 168 ABs in a wasted season. With Kendrys Morales and Torii Hunter replaced by Josh Hamilton only, Bourjos appears to be back in action. He doesn't make enough contact to expect a high AVG, but his power and speed are intriguing enough to make him a solid choice in many formats this spring.
Cliff Pennington, SS - ARI - For me, Pennington is a definite NL-only sleeper this year. First off, he's moving from the tougher league to the easier league, and from a park that depresses run scoring by almost 20% to one that enhances it by more than 10%. Secondly, 5X5 players are always looking for steals entering the league, and Pennington has tallied double-digits in steals for 6 straight years including his minor league tenure. Finally, Pennington had abnormally bad luck with BABIP last season. He managed an LD rate over 20% for the third straight year, yet his BABIP was only .259. For whatever reason, Pennington normally has a BABIP below expectations, but this was off by 50 points or so even given his proclivities. He's also generally a healthy player, so expecting something like .265-.270 with 10 homers and 15 steals to go along with better R and RBI totals than he has posted previously between the better offense and better park effects seems very reasonable to me.
Travis Snider, OF - PIT - On the one hand, you have a 25 year old with a career 308/383/528 line in the minors (and better than insignificant speed) that appears to have the inside track on a starting OF spot for an improving offense. On the other hand, you have a guy that is hitting 248/309/415 over almost 1000 ABs in the majors and appears to have made virtually zero progress in five partial big league seasons. In essence, you have a flyer. With Jose Tabata and Alex Presley hanging around behind him, Snider doesn't really have any longer of a leash with Pittsburgh than he did with Toronto, and his 50 games with the Bucs post-deadline were underwhelming to say the least. Still, the potential is there, and it's significant. I'm still prepared to gamble on him for the right price in all formats...it wasn't just in the rare Vegas air that he was able to hit on the way up the ladder.
Shaun Marcum, SP - NYM - I can just about sum this up by saying that Shaun Marcum, extreme flyball pitcher extraordinaire, is moving from the easiest park for HRs in the majors in 2012 to an average HR park in Citi Field, and thus should be expected to improve. Marcum had some elbow and shoulder issues during the second half last year, so it isn't quite that easy to forecast, but he has pitched through similar things in the past with excellent results, so he is certainly someone that I'd feel comfortable gambling on. There just aren't that many sure things, and assuming that the slight deterioration in control was injury-related, I expect Marcum to be back in the 3.50-3.60 range this year with a typically solid WHIP.
Leonys Martin, OF - TEX - One of the biggest rookie upsides has to belong to Texas' Leonys Martin, although he has plenty of competition for playing time in the Ranger OF. Unlike those he is vying with for playing time, Julio Borbon and Craig Gentry, Martin is more than just a slap-hitting speedster. He clearly has 20/20 potential, and including his winter league time this year is hitting over .300 as a professional. He may not quite be ready, but rest assured he has more upside than anyone in that OF other than Cruz. He is definitely one to stash in the minors even if he doesn't win the job this spring, as I certainly expect some sort of impact from him here in 2013.
Jacob Turner, SP - MIA - I'm a big Jake Turner fan, despite my propensity to weight performance a bit heavier than scouting reports, although he's certainly going to be pitching in front of one of the worst offenses in baseball. His numbers for seven starts with the Marlins (3.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) were pretty solid for a 21 year old, and I am in the camp that believes that his swinging strike% is indicative of better K rates to come. His control is solid and the HR rate should remain much improved: his GB rate is better than you'd expect given his previous HR rates and he's moving to one of the best pitching environments around. Wins are going to be tough to find, but for a back-end guy he might be all right this year, certainly in deeper leagues, and dynasty leaguers should still be all over him.
Kyle McPherson, P - PIT - Kyle McPherson is a deep sleeper at this point, but it's easy to envision a scenario where he cracks the Pirate rotation, and with his excellent control and roughly average "everything else", he could be a solid #5 starter in deeper formats. The upside here is limited, however.
