Around the League
Tim Anderson-White Sox-SS
Tim Anderson went to Driveline this offseason to get his swing right. He never felt comfortable after his extended stay on the injured list due to a groin injury. The numbers paint a similar story. He hit .242 with 1 HR and 3 SB after hitting the IL in late May. Prior to the injury, he hit .333 with 5 HR and 10 SB. Anderson hasn't exceeded 123 GP in each of the last three full seasons. With that being said, he has been a productive fantasy player because he brings a true five-category profile. He isn't elite in any one category but he provides juice across the board. His current ADP (90 NFBC) represents a nice value given his floor and upside. It is hard to find a legitimate .300 hitter with double-digit HR's and SB upside.
Griffin Canning-Angels-SP
Griffin Canning is fighting for the final spot in the Angels rotation. He hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2021 and hasn't exceeded 90.1 IP in the majors. Canning has a career 4.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He is a huge injury risk and even if he is healthy we have no idea what his stuff looks like. At this point, he isn't worth drafting even in deeper 50-round draft and holds. In re-draft formats, keeping an eye on his spring training and early season success will be key. He could be an early season waiver wire pick-up if he shows that he is healthy and his stuff has returned.
Tyrone Taylor-Brewers-OF
Tyrone Taylor is going to get a late start to the spring due to a right elbow strain. Manager Craig Counsel didn't give any detail as to how the injury occurred other than that he is expected to miss two weeks. Taylor looks to have a starting spot to start the year but he is going to need to produce to keep his job all year. Last year, he hit .233 with 17 HR, 49 R, 51 RBI, and 3 SB in 120 GP. He is projected for a very similar line again this year which would make him a solid but unspectacular late-round option. Taylor does not have an above-average fantasy skill let alone an elite one. This makes his downside greater than most players.
Tanner Houck-Red Sox-P
Tanner Houck and the Red Sox are talking about a long-term contract. Houck made four starts a year ago but pitched primarily out of the bullpen. He pitched very well (3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 23% K, and 50% GB). The Red Sox are bringing him into camp as a starter. The Red Sox current starting rotation is not very strong (Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Paxton, and Whitlock). It is also a collection of old starters who have long injury histories. Even if he doesn't start the year with a rotation spot there is a good chance one opens up early on. Houck has an average strikeout rate (23% K) but his swinging strike rate suggests more could be coming (13% SwStr) and when paired with 50% GB creates a successful combination. His draft price should remain low due to not having a job which makes him worth a speculative add late in drafts.
Ke'Bryan Hayes-Pirates-3B
Ke'Bryan Hayes arrived at Pirates camp with 10-15 of added weight which he believes will help him stay on the field. He has battled injuries over the past two seasons. Hayes hits the ball hard (47% Hardhit and 113 maxEV) but on the ground too much (49% GB). A slight change in his launch angle would unlock his power making him a true five-category player. Hayes has a good plate approach (22% K and 9% BB) and speed (20 SB) but has lacked power (7 HR and .101 ISO). He plays elite defense so if he is healthy he is going to play every day for the Pirates which is going to be very helpful for his skillset which is more of an accumulator than true elite skills. Hayes represents upside at his draft price (169 ADP NFBC). He represents the end of a tier in terms of third baseman because the next third baseman off of the board is Alec Bohm at 181 and then Josh Rojas at 204.
Jack Suwinski-Pirates-OF
Jack Suwinski came into Pirates camp with a revamped swing. He is now standing more upright and open in his initial setup. The goal with this change is to get better at hitting the high fastball which was a problem for him last year. Suwinksi hit .202 with 19 HR, 45 R, 38 RBI, and 4 SB in 106 GP. His strikeout rate was high (31% K) which led to the low batting average but there was a lot to like about the profile. He hit the ball hard (12% Barrels and 40% Hardhit) and showed a good eye at the plate (11% BB and 27% O-swing). He was hurt by a low BABIP (.242). Suwinski is going to earn a starting role but he could provide nice value in deeper formats in the power department with the upside of more if he makes some growth in terms of contact.
Royals Closer
Aroldis Chapman signed a one-year deal with the Royals and he has $8.75 million reasons to take over as the closer. He has a base salary of $3.75 million but could earn up to $8.75 million if he is the closer all year. Chapman had a down year in 2023 (4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP) and as a result, was removed as the Yankee's closer. However, this year he is not being drafted as a set closer (393 ADP NFBC) which could turn out to be a major bargain. Scott Barlow was the Royals' closer last year (2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 24 SV). This has officially turned into a battle for the role of closer. Barlow is much more expensive (138 ADP NFBC) so if you are foregoing early closers and want to take a shot later Chapman is one of the better options.
Bailey Ober-Twins-SP
Bailey Ober is currently out of a rotation spot with the Twins going with a rotation of (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, and Maeda). This has dropped his draft day value. He is also coming off an injury-riddled season in which he threw 56 IP with a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. His 3.99 SIERA suggests he was lucky but still an above-average starter. He combines an average strikeout rate (22% K) with a good walk rate (5% BB) and 51% FB. Tyler Mahle is coming off a shoulder injury and Maeda is returning from Tommy John surgery. Lopez and Gray also do not have stellar injury track records so Bailey Ober is worth rostering despite not being in the rotation to start the year.
Spencer Steer-Reds-3B
Spencer Steer will likely get a long look to become the Reds every day third baseman. He debuted last year and hit .211 with 2 HR, 12 R, 8 RBI, and 0 SB in 28 GP. The skills underneath paint a more encouraging picture. He showed good plate skills (24% K and 10% BB) to go along with a 6% Barrel rate. The upside is that he plays every day in Great American Ballpark which is one of the best parks for hitters. There isn't a ton of upside and this is mainly in deeper mixed-league formats but Steer has a clear path to playing time in a good park at a good price (504 NFBC ADP).
Nick Gordon-Twins-2B/OF
Nick Gordon had a breakout season a year ago. He played in 138 games and showed improved skills thanks in large part to figuring out stomach issues that allowed him to add strength. Gordon hit .272 9 HR, 45 R, 50 RBI, and 6 SB. He posted quality batted ball stats (9% Barrels and 44% Hardhit) to go along with an aggressive approach at the plate (4% BB and 24% K). Gordon is going to bounce around the field for the Twins but should play regularly. There is quite a bit of upside given his emergence last year and the blossoming power profile.
Luis Urias-Brewers-2B/3B
Luis Urias is going to be the Brewers every day third baseman but comes into 2023 with positional eligibility at 2B, SS, and 3B which is very valuable. He hit .239 with 16 HR, 54 R, 47 RBI, and 1 SB in 119 GP. He continues to have a good approach at the plate (11% BB and 21% K). He hits the ball decently hard (8% Barrels and 35% Hardhit) but likely needs to be more aggressive in the zone in order to truly break out in 2023. Urias provides average stats across the board which makes him a glue guy when it comes to fantasy due to his positional flexibility.
Aaron Civale-Guardians-SP
Aaron Civale is going to be in the Guardians rotation this year despite struggling in 2022. He posted a 4.92 ERA and 1.19 WHIP across 97 IP. He was hurt by .297 BABIP and 63% LOB. The core skills were strong (24% K and 5% BB) which is why his 3.55 SIERA suggests regression in the positive direction. He also made a pitch mix change in the second half which resulted in a 3.35 ERA with 0.84 WHIP and 23% K:BB. Civale is worth rolling the dice on as a back-end starter.
Charlie Morton-Braves-SP
Charlie Morton resigned with the Braves for $20 million with a club option for 2024. He is coming off a down year (4.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP) across 172 IP. Morton was coming off a pretty severe leg injury in the postseason the year before which impacted him early on. He talked this off-season about a mid-season adjustment that helped him improve all of his pitches but specifically his curveball. Morton made the adjustment in the middle of June and posted a 2.93 ERA with 33% K and 8% BB from there on out. This is the type of production that we have come to expect from Morton and makes him an intriguing buy in fantasy drafts despite his poor overall results in 2022.
Grayson Rodriguez-Orioles-SP
Grayson Rodriguez is going to get every opportunity to make the Orioles rotation and become a key contributor. There is no denying his talent but his fantasy value in 2023 has other factors that need to be considered. Rodriguez posted a 2.20 ERA and 0.93 WHIP with 36% K and 8% BB but it was across just 69.2 IP. The Orioles will be very cautious with their top prospect and that could come in a variety of ways. They could do any combination of limiting his pitches per start, innings pitched or starts. The bottom line is that he is going to get less work than most other starters going in his range of ADP (Jon Gray, Brady Singer, and Reid Detmers) which makes it hard to buy him in drafts. His talent is insane but he would need to hit the high end of his projections to be a value.
Brandon Marsh-Phillies-OF
Brandon Marsh was traded to the Phillies last year. He made mechanical changes to his swing in Philadelphia, resulting in better numbers (.288 with 3 HR/3 SB with PHI and .226 with 8 HR/8 SB in LAA). He cut his strikeout rate from 36% to 29% but did so by being more aggressive (4% BB). Overall, even the new profile (29% K and 4% BB) is a risky one. Especially given that he doesn't have an elite skill to carry his profile. His best-case scenario is a .250ish AVG with 15 HR/15 SB which is good but not elite in today's game. The downside is that he strikes out more than 30% of the time and his projected sub .700 OPS comes true. This would mean that he gets platooned or benched which would kill his value. The downside is hard to stomach given the limited upside.
