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Kyle Bradish-Orioles-SP
Kyle Bradish is unlikely to start the season in the Orioles rotation after suffering a UCL sprain in his pitching elbow. This is concerning news for the Orioles because this type of injury is usually a precursor for Tommy John surgery. For now, there has been no mention of TJS for Bradish. He is going to receive PRP injections and see how his elbow responds. Bradish is coming off a breakout 2023 season (168.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and 19% K:BB). He displayed improved control (7% BB) while increasing his strikeout rate (25% K). Bradish also did a good job keeping the ball on the ground (49% GB) which helped limit home runs (0.75 HR/9). He also took advantage of his pitcher-friendly home park (2.23 ERA and 0.95 WHIP). Unfortunately, this injury is going to make it hard to draft him despite the breakout and strong peripherals. Drafting injured starting pitchers and more specifically pitchers with UCL injuries is as risky as it gets.
Josh Jung-Rangers-3B
Josh Jung is dealing with a calf strain that is going to sideline him for 2-3 weeks. Calf injuries are difficult for professional athletes but he can take it slow given this time of year. The hope is that he recovers fully and has no issues with it for the rest of the year. Jung is coming off a strong 2023 season in which he hit .266 with 23 HR, 75 R, 70 RBI, and 1 SB in 122 GP. The power is legit given his quality of contact (12% Barrels, 47 % Hardhit, and 110 mph maxEV) and 39% FB. The issue with Jung from a fantasy perspective is that he doesn't run (1 SB in 122 GP) and is going to struggle to hit for average given his strikeout rate (29% K). He should see increased counting stats with a full season's worth of games, but he will be average in four categories (AVG, HR, R, and RBI) and actively hurt you in the last one (SB). This hurts his fantasy value because it is hard to take a zero in stolen bases in the current environment without getting elite production somewhere else. Despite his younger age and prospect status, Jung is an average fantasy asset.
Jarren Duran-Red Sox-OF
Jarren Duran is going to be the Red Sox leadoff hitter to start the year according to manager Alex Cora. This is great news for his fantasy value. Duran is coming off a 2023 season in which he hit .295 with 8 HR, 46 R, 40 RBI, and 24 SB in 102 GP. He showed off improved skills (25% K, 7% BB, and 46% Hardhit). The concern with Duran is whether the Red Sox will stick with him against left-handed pitchers. They primarily platooned him a year ago (313 PA vs. RHP and 49 PA vs. LHP). The Red Sox need to see what they have in their 27-year-old outfielder which includes facing left-handed pitching. Duran has the upside (15 HR/30 SB) worth taking a chance on in drafts. The additional at-bats coming from batting leadoff will only increase his value.
Jorge Soler-Giants-OF
Jorge Soler signed a three-year deal worth $42 million with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants had very few regulars last year and did a lot of mixing and matching with their lineup. However, the deal Soler signed signals that he is going to be in the lineup as long as he is healthy. AT&T Park is not the best park for power but Soler has more than enough raw power for it not to be a factor and it is also much more favorable to right-handed power. Soler is coming off a strong 2023 season in which he hit .250 with 36 HR, 77 R, 75 RBI, and 1 SB in 137 GP. One should expect a similar return in 2024 given his skills (24% K, 11% BB, 15% Barrels) and mediocre supporting cast.
Juan Soto-Yankees-OF
The Yankees acquired Juan Soto from the Padres for Michael King and a collection of minor leaguers. Soto bounced back nicely in 2023 hitting .275 with 35 HR, 97 R, 109 RBI, and 12 SB. The move to Yankee Stadium is going to give him a small boost in power but the real difference should come in his counting stats in a better Yankees lineup. The only gripe about Soto's game is that he is too passive which limits his total balls in play. This limits his power numbers despite stellar quality of contact (13% Barrels, 55% Hardhit, and 115.3 mph maxEV). Soto is a huge addition to the Yankees lineup because he provides another high on-base player alongside OF Aaron Judge. He also has played 150+ games in all but his rookie season and the shortened 2020 season. The Yankees have struggled to keep their star hitters healthy so Soto provides the stability that they need and he gets an excellent landing spot heading into free agency.
Chris Sale-Braves-SP
Chris Sale was traded to the Atlanta Braves during the offseason. He also had a reportedly healthy offseason for the first time in years. Sale made 20 starts for the Red Sox last year posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. If one just looked at his ERA it would be easy to write Sale off given his struggles with staying healthy over the past three seasons but his underlying skills paint a different picture (3.50 SIERA). He showed the ability to miss bats (29% K) with good control (7% BB). His shift from more of a ground ball tilt to fly ball heavy (44% FB) did hurt him (1.31 HR/9) so that is one concern leaving Boston for a more hitter-friendly park in Atlanta. Sale is no longer elite but he can still miss bats and his projections are for a high threes ERA which would put him as a top-30 starter for fantasy.
Hunter Greene-Reds-SP
Hunter Greene is going to be one of the top "sleepers" this draft season. With the wealth of information and analysis out there, no one will sleep on him in drafts. Greene showed an elite strikeout rate (31% K) which is backed up by his elite velocity and 13% swinging strike rate. He struggled with control at times (10% BB) but it is not as big of a concern given his ability to miss bats. The one thing he isn't going to be able to change is his home park. He had a 5.13 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 2.68 HR/9 at Great American Ballpark. Reports were coming out on Sunday that Greene is planning on adding a splitter and curveball to his repertoire this year. This would be a significant development because he primarily relied on his fastball and slider last year which made him very predictable. If he can use the splitter effectively it could also help him lower his home run rate. This is something to keep an eye on throughout Spring Training. Greene is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward starter.
Christopher Morel-Cubs-3B
Christopher Morel is going to play primarily third base in Spring Training according to manager Craig Counsel. He mentioned that they need to find him a position where he can play well enough defensively to keep his bat in the lineup. Morel hit .247 with 26 HR, 62 R, 70 RBI, and 6 SB in 107 GP. The power numbers are legit based on his quality of contact (16% Barrels, 50% Hardhit, and 113.6 mph maxEV) and fly ball lean (41% FB). His batting average is never going to be an asset given his strikeout rate (31% K) but he hits the ball hard enough that he can stay in the .240-.250 range which isn't going to hurt your fantasy team much. The only real concern with Morel is his defensive home because if he can't find a position to play then it is going to be hard to get his bat in the lineup consistently unless they commit to him as a full-time DH.
Jung Ho Lee-Giants-SFG
Jung Ho Lee signed a six-year, $113 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. He is coming off a strong season in Japan (.318 AVG with 6 HR, 50 R, 45 RBI, and 6 SB in 86 GP). He owns a career .340/.410/.491 triple slash over his seven-year career in Japan. Lee is expected to be the Giants leadoff hitter to start the year according to manager Bob Melvin. He is a prototypical leadoff hitter who makes a ton of contact and can get on base. The concern from a fantasy perspective is that he going to struggle to hit for power and doesn't have elite speed. A 10 HR/10 SB with an above-average batting average is the ceiling for Lee which means that you will need to have a plan to address his shortcomings in power and speed across the rest of your roster.
Carlos Rodon-Yankees-SP
Reports coming out of early Yankee camp are positive on Carlos Rodon. He is reportedly sitting 94-95 mph on his fastball according to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic after being 88-89 mph at this same time last year. Rodon is coming off an epic disaster of a first season in New York (6.85 ERA and 1.45 WHIP). He was never healthy and the results reflected that. His strikeout rate dropped drastically from 33% in 2022 to 22% last year and he saw his walk rate jump up to 10% from 7% in 2022. Health is and has been the biggest factor for Rodon throughout his career. The good news is that the price to take a chance on Rodon this year is not going to be prohibitive after his down year in 2023.
Luis Severino-Mets-SP
The Mets signed Luis Severino to a one-year deal worth $13 million. He is coming off his worst season in the big leagues (6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP). His strikeout rate dropped to 19% K and his 4.78 SIERA was by far the worst of his career. The interesting part was that his stuff returned in terms of velocity (96.5 mph FB and 85.3 mph SL). His Stuff+ (104) and Location+ (103) were above-average so it was confusing as to why this once-great starter was struggling so badly. However, the reports started to come out that he was tipping his pitches and opponents were taking advantage. This makes sense given that his stuff returned but he struggled mightily with his fastball and home runs (2.32 HR/9). He believes that he has fixed the pitch-tipping problem so there is real bounce-back potential for Severino. It also helps that he has moved from one of the best hitters' parks to one of the best pitchers' parks in Citi Field.
Gunnar Henderson-BAL-3B
Gunnar Henderson is dealing with a strained oblique but is expected to be healed and ready to go by the time the regular season rolls around. Henderson is one of the game's best young hitters. He is coming off a rookie season in which he hit .255 with 28 HR, 100 R, 82 RBI, and 10 SB. Henderson turned it around in the second half in terms of production (.264 AVG with 15 HR/5 SB) and skills (21% K, 6% BB, and 124 wRC+). He is a true five-category contributor who has above-average plate skills (9% BB and 26% K) and quality of contact (11% Barrels, 52% Hardit, and 113.8 mph maxEV). The arrow continues to point up for the 22-year-old.
Jarred Kelenic-Braves-OF
Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, and Evan White were traded to the Braves in exchange for RHP Jackson Kowar and RHP Cole Phillips. Kelenic is going to be the Braves everyday left fielder and they have no intention of platooning him to start the year. Kelenic is coming off an up-and-down 2023 season. He started off the year red hot (.308 AVG with 7 HR, 26% K, and 175 wRC+ in April) but then went back to being the same player (.235 AVG with 4 HR, 33% K, and 88 wRC+). The concern for Kelenic going forward is that his inability to make contact (31% K) and struggles against lefties (.189 AVG and 61 wRC+) will prevent him from being a fantasy asset. The move to Atlanta is a positive given their home park and the overall strength of the lineup but Kelenic needs to take major steps forward to be a reliable starter.
Houston Closer Role
The Houston Astros made a surprising move this offseason by signing Josh Hader. They have also announced that he is going to be there closer with Ryan Pressly moving to a setup role. Hader is coming off a bounce-back 2023 season (1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 33 SV). There are red flags in his profile which introduces doubt about him being the top closer despite moving to a better team with more save chances. Hader posted a career-high 13% walk rate and his 3.15 SIERA was the highest of his career. He was able to post a low ERA and WHIP thanks in large part to 89% LOB and 0.48 HR/9 which were both the best of his career. He still misses bats (37% K and 16% SwStr) but the two ways you get hurt as a closer are walks and home runs. He struggled with walks last year and is due regression in the home run department. This is enough to move someone like Edwin Diaz or Devin Williams in front of him as the top closer taken in 2024 drafts. Ryan Pressly has lost the majority of value because he will no longer be the closer. However, he is one of the best non-closers to draft because of his elite skills (2.99 SIERA, 28% K, and 6% BB). Pressly is going to get some saves when Hader needs a break and if anything were to happen to Hader, he would be able to step in without missing a beat.
