Evan Phillips
The Dodgers claimed Phillips from the Rays in the summer of 2021, and since then he has been a staple in their bullpen, appearing in 126 games in their last two seasons with great results. Phillips has that coveted ability to both get groundballs (44.1%) and punch guys out (28.2%). He utilizes an elite slider that gets premium results (.195 xwOBA, 42.1% Whiff), and overall has no problem throwing strikes (5.6% BB). He doesn't feature the giant fastball that most closers have, which probably caps out his strikeout abilities, and puts him behind that first tier of elite closers. Nonetheless, Phillips is a super well rounded reliever that now has a large sample of results and strike throwing. Earlier this month, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced that Phillips was going to get a majority of save opportunities. Right now, Phillips is going as RP16, and it feels like the market hasn't taken into consideration his role increase. The Dodgers are in line to once again be one of the best teams in baseball. Phillips should have no shortage of opportunities, and we know he has the ability to get outs effectively.
Nolan Schanuel
Schanuel was an absolute machine in college, posting a videogame .447/.615/.868 slash line with a 14:71 K:BB ratio. From a back-of-the-baseball-card standpoint, he had a superior season to Dylan Crews, the first hitter taken off the board in the draft, albeit Schanuel didn't play in a Power 5 conference. The Angels selected Schanuel with the 11th overall pick, a surprise given Schanuel's lack of athleticism and 1B-only profile. Unathletic corner bats have more pressure to hit, especially Schanuel, who isn't projected to provide value on the running or defensive front. For the Angels to have taken Schanuel so high, they must have been intensely convicted on the hit tool. Schanuel raked in a 17 game sample in AA, and the Angels called him, making him one of the quickest draft-to-bigs hitters in the modern era.
Schanuel got mixed results in his 132 big league plate appearances. The green flags were that his ability to control the zone carried over amazingly. Amongst hitters with 100 PA's, Schanuel was the only hitter to walk more than he struckout (15.2% BB, 14.4% K) with a minimum 15% BB along with...Juan Soto. He doesn't chase (20.4%) and he doesn't whiff (17.6%). The red flag is that he had virtually no impact (85.4 EV, 2.2 Barrel%, 25.6 Hard%). Yikes. Those are bottom of the barrel (no pun intended) rates. However, I'm incredibly forgiving of Schanuel's lack of thump, as he displayed plenty of thump in college and in his small minor league stint. While Schanuel struggled to impact, he didn't struggle to hit. He actually literally finds the barrel plenty, with a 40% Sweet Spot, .350 xwOBA, and .280 xBA.
I want to emphasize how insane it is to jump from mid-major college pitching to big league pitching, going from metal bat to wood bat, while seeing virtually no real hiccup in your ability to make contact and control the zone. The power will come. Power comes last. Schanuel is a dark horse to be a Top-10 fantasy 1B and can be found for just 1B45 right now.
Christian Walker
Walker became a regular for the DBacks back in 2019, and has slowly kept getting better since. His premium defensive value has made him a lineup staple, as Walker has had over 660 trips to the plate in back-to-back seasons now. Walker features a very well-rounded offensive skillset. He won't blow you away with any underlying metric, but also doesn't feature any major holes in his game. Walker manages the zone well (19:9 K:BB%) while still bringing impact (.339 xwOBA, 11.4 Barrel%). I think Walker's non-polarizing underlying skillset makes him a great bet to repeat. One could argue the Arizona lineup might be better this season, giving some slightly more upside in the counting stats department. He is being drafted as 1B9 right now, but in points leagues, Walker was 1B4 due to his ability to control the zone, making him a steal depending on your settings.
Logan O'Hoppe
O'Hoppe had a great 2023 for a catcher, in albeit a small sample. If he had qualified amongst catchers, his 15.6 Barrel% and 46.7 Hard% both would've ranked second. He ranked first in Pull% (56.3) and fifth in FB% (48.1). On a per-AB basis, O'Hoppe was one of the most impactful catchers last season. That being said, the performance obviously is accompanied by a catch. O'Hoppe was abysmal with contact, chasing and whiffing at well above league average rates over the course of the whole season. That being said, I'm going to forgive O'Hoppe some because he did miss a huge chunk of the season due to a labrum tear, and he clearly wasn't the same player when he came back. Before the tear, O'Hoppe slashed .280/.339/.560 and after returning slashed .217/.279/.481. It clearly affected him. He'll be farther removed from the injury going into 2024, and if he can recreate who he was prior to the injury, O'Hoppe can easily outperform his C14 ADP.
Christopher Morel
Morel took a big step forward in 2023, improving greatly in batted ball quality. His EV jumped from 89.6 to 92.1 and his LA jumped from 9.1 to 12.4, which obviously resulted in a huge 9.7% jump in his Hard-Hit%. Unfortunately, Morel is your classic power/punchout corner guy. He whiffs more than Javy Baez but almost a 5% margin believe it or not and punched out at 31%. What's more concerning is that players with this profile hopefully walk a bite to offset the massive punchout rates, but Morel's free swinging nature holds him at basically league average 8.4 BB%. I normally try to be forgiving of young guys that struggle with contact early on, but Morel has almost 900 PA's under his belt and also had a punchout problem in the minors, so I don't think these issues are going away anytime soon. It's a slippery slope in points leagues, but in 5x5, Morel could have a ton of upside in three categories.
Vaughn Grissom
Grissom is a really interesting case. Grissom hit the minors runnings as an 11th round pick in 2019. In 2022, the Braves called him up after he hit 14 homers with an .899 OPS across 442 PAs at A+ and AA. Grissom was solid on the surface in his 156 PAs in the bigs, posting a .345 wOBA, but his underlying exit data suggested he overperformed a bit. He came into 2023 with a lot of hype, but was terrible in April and the beginning of May, so the Braves sent him back down where he once again raked in the minors. The issue with Grissom is that there isn't much to save him from his major league data. Vaughn pulled the ball at a poor 31.1% clip and hit grounders at a 59% clip. He had one flyball or line drive hit to the poolside in 80 PAs. He walked at 2.5% and didn't impact the ball (86.2 EV, 36.1 Hard%). This is really bad. He was also a bad defender at short, with -6 OAA in only 158 innings, one of the worst rates in the bigs last season. Luckily, he now plays in Boston, one of the more hitter friendly ballparks, and will supposedly have a full time role at 2B. Just know that you're not betting on a traditional "sleeper." Grissom needs to make a genuine ability jump in order to become fantasy relevant. He has the youth and MiLB track record to provide hope, but it's more of a gamble than an investment.
Ezequiel Tovar
Tovar is another really interesting case. He tore up AA at the age of 20, which garnered him consensus top-25 prospect status prior to 2023. Tovar slashed .253/.287/.408 as a full time player across 153 games with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases. I love betting on younger guys to take a step forward, but there are concerns about his batted ball profile. Tovar scored below the 25th percentile in all of xwOBA, EV, Hard%, Chase%, Whiff%, K%, BB%. No bueno. His lone bright spot is a 71st percentile sweet spot percentage, which really complicates things. On one hand, you can say while the power and contact weren't there, when he connects, it's clean contact. His high .328 BABIP could support that. It could be impressive for someone who did it in their age 21 season. On the other hand, you could see a slippery slope, where the entire offensive profile is built on a fewer BBE that are heavily reliant on both being quality and getting lucky. He's a guy I might not roster much early, but will keep him on a close watch.
James Outman
Outman is a bit of an incomplete hitter, but there are still several green flags in his profile and situation. For starters, he's coming off a 23HR-16SB season, and is sure to rack up Rs and RBIs while playing in what might be the best lineup in baseball. He also plays a position that isn't as deep this year (OF). He brings a ton of value just from that structural standpoint. He's actually really disciplined, which allows him to walk, but there are in-zone contact issues, and I'm leaning towards those not going away. That being said, he does find the barrel with some consistency (38.2% Sweet Spot, 11.1% Barrel). I think Outman gets better in the counting department, mostly due to being in an insane lineup, but also think the walking, stolen bases, and power are repeatable. His speed and defense will continue to keep him in the lineup. He's an excellent stability piece at a shallow position that can be found deeper in drafts.
Jasson Dominguez
The Martian was a mega prospect back in 2020 when he was supposedly drawing Mickey Mantle comps. I personally never said that, but I swear I saw a tweet in 2020 about it. Dominguez was a solid MiLB performer prior to 2023, with the exception of a bad AFL stint in 2022 that was probably aggressive for a 19 year old. To his credit, he turned it around and slashed a respectable .265/.377/.425 across AA and AAA in 2023, before being promoted in September. He posted a .980 OPS in 8 games before unfortunately tearing his UCL, requiring TJ. Dominguez won't be ready until at least the summer, but he is another one of my draft-to-IL players I'm targeting. While 8 games of data is certainly not even close to enough, he did have a 56.5 Hard% during that time, which is pretty absurd. Age is also something I will never ignore, and Dominguez was able to conquer the upper minors in a short time, and was still posted something to be positive about in the bigs as a 20 year old. I'm not going to reach for him, there could be a ton of upside when he comes back.
Shoto Imanaga
Imanaga is an undersized lefty coming over from Japan, who has been one of the most reliable starters in the NBP. He's an excellent strike thrower, having walked less than 2.0 per 9 for three straight seasons. Imanaga is on the smaller size and doesn't throw super hard (94), but supposedly has touched 96 and has enough fastball deception to still get swing and miss. Guys that throw slower, but riding, fastballs tend to give up a lot of flyball contact, so there is some homerun concern, but Imanaga also features a splitter, slider, and curveball. Since there isn't as much public data to work off here, we are going more for what the profile sounds like - which is a lefty with multiple pitches, fastball quality, and strikes. He's a nice, late grab if you go hitter heavy early.
Tanner Scott
Go look up Tanner Scott's Baseball Savant page. It's an absolute sea of red. Scott is an elite ground ball getter (50.3%), barrel misser (36.1% Whiff), and weak contact inducer (26.3% Hard). Even xFIP likes him (2.80) and that stat doesn't like anybody. His 111 Pitching+ (Stuff+ and Location+ combined) is 5th best amongst all pitchers with at least 70 innings. He competes for the best pitching talent in the bigs, and should get more save opportunities in 2024. Even if he doesn't, he will be huge for you in the ERA/WHIP department. Bet on talent.
Steven Kwan
Kwan is an extreme version of your prototypical discipline/no-power guy, but like extreme extreme. He is 1st percentile in Barrel% and Hard Hit% (terrible) but 100th in Whiff. Kwan is a premium runner and defender on a team that values his skillset, so even though his 718 PAs in 2023 seems unrepeatable, I don't see why he can't at least come close to that figure. I'm not super in on Kwan in 5x5 leagues, but in points leagues where K:BB matters, he's actually a steal. Kwan was OF9 in 2023, which is more than Christian Yelich, Ian Happ, or Bryan Reynolds.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna is coming off one of the most insane seasons in the modern era. He is a 5 category contributor that put up 41 homers and 73 stolen bases thanks to a .416 OBP. Acuna was 100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and EV. He is a deadly combination of hitting the ball often and hitting it hard while punching out at only an 11.4% clip. We rarely see this kind of quality of batted ball without at least some semblance of whiff or chase, but Acuna ranks amongst the best in those marks as well. As of right now, there is no easily identifiable weakness in his offensive game. He hits all pitch types across both handedness at high levels. Acuna is the clear-cut 1st overall pick in your drafts in all formats.
Mookie Betts
Betts is coming off one of the best offensive seasons of his career, and did so by becoming a slightly different hitter. Betts set career highs in LA (20.6), EV (92.4), FB% (35.7), LD% (29.3), Pull% (45.4) and career low in GB% (27.6). Somehow, an already premium batted ball profile got significantly better. The most exciting part is that Betts' swing decision and contact remained mostly unchanged compared to career averages, meaning Betts simply became a more impactful hitter. I believe the extra power jump is genuine, and may even benefit his counting stats more with Ohtani in the lineup. To put the cherry on top, Betts has multi-position eligibility. I'm comfortable taking him as high as two in all formats, especially points leagues.
Bobby Miller
The former first round pick put together an excellent 22-start rookie campaign. Miller punched out a league average 23% of batter while only walking 6%. He's a groundball getter (47.7%) and throws flames (98.9) with extension (6.9). Miller is quietly the complete package for a starter. He throws strikes, limits contact quality, and gets groundballs. He also plays for one of the best teams in baseball, which will be huge for the W-L department. He posted a 3.76 ERA, and xFIP (3.77) and xERA (3.60) felt that it played pretty true. I don't think Miller has enough ability to miss barrels, as his whiff and chase are near league average, but I do believe this is going to be death by a thousand cuts. He's going to put together 30 quality starts for the best team in baseball, if all goes as planned, and at SP25, I don't think I've left a draft without him.
